NFL Summer Stock Report- AFC East

We are smack in the middle of the second full slate of NFL preseason games. Flex Shane and I recently broke down the previous week’s action on the Bold Calls Podcast. If you haven’t yet, give it a listen to see if we’ve already taken the measurements for George Pickens and Romeo Doubs’ Hall of Fame jackets. We also go deep on general best ball strategy.

Summer Stock Reports for the NFC South, NFC East, and AFC West are available on the site if you need to catch up.

As always, we are using Underdog ADP when referenced. There is still plenty of time to get in their flagship Best Ball Mania 3 tournament, which is just over 60% full. Sign up now with our promo code DFSARMY and get a deposit match of up to $100. That will get you 4 free shots at taking down the 2 million top prize in BBM3.

Buffalo Bills

 

Many beers will be drank, many wings will be eaten, and countless table will be smashed this season as the Bills are the consensus favorite to win the Super Bowl. FanDuel has them listed at +600, a head of TB at +750, and KC +1000. Buffalo has a dynamic offense that passed at a higher rate than any team in the league last season. Typing all of this it scares me a bit that I am underweight their top two players, but I would not do anything differently.

Stefon Diggs goes off the board in the mid to late 1st round with an ADP of 7.9.  I am not getting a lot of Diggs at this price.  Maybe, I am a tad biased because I took Diggs last year in my longest running home league on the 1/2 turn and it never felt like I was getting my money’s worth. When I looked back at his numbers, the 103 receptions for 1225 yards and 10 touchdowns were actually better than I expected.  The reason why Diggs’ season seemed disappointing is that Cooper Kupp was drafted 2 or 3 rounds later and posted 145 grabs for 1947 yards, with 16 TDs. Jefferson went a full round later and had 108/1616/10.  Chase went 3-6 rounds later (depending where you got in) and posted 81/1455/13.

The pro Diggs in the first round argument would be that he ran less efficient/lucky on deep balls than he did in 2020, when he had 127 grabs for 1535 yards.  Even if he does regain some deep ball efficiency this season, I expect the Gabe Davis and James Cook to be big parts of the game plan.  I don’t believe Diggs will ever see a target share again like he did in 2020.  I would expect his numbers to be something similar to the very good, but not great totals of 2021.  For me, this doesn’t justify taking him 7th overall.

If you are reading a column like this, you already know that Josh Allen is a beast. He is justifiably the QB1 in pretty much every ranking or ADP that you can find on the world wide web.  He can go throw for throw in a shoot out with Mahomes, while doubling as his teams goal line running back.  All of that said, DFS Army is never going to advise you to be the first person to draft a quarterback  in your single QB managed or best ball draft.

Allen (ADP 31.9) goes more than a full round before the QB2, Justin Herbert (ADP 45.3).  If you look a bit further down the list, he goes almost 60 picks a head of Dak Prescott (ADP 90.5).  As tempting as going overweight on Allen is, the opportunity cost of taking a QB in the 3rd round is too high for me.  I am not overweight Allen, but I am definitely not a full fade.  I occasionally take Allen in the 3rd on teams where I get Chase in the 1st, building that week 17 correlation.  I will then target Gabe Davis as stack in the 4th.

Speaking of Davis, fantasy Twitter has finally tired of arguing about him and his ADP (44.2) has stabilized in the 4th round.  I loved Gabe Davis when these contests first opened and he could briefly be had in the 6th round.  I wrote him up back in early June as my favorite 5th round pick.  I feel like he is now fairly priced and I am still getting some 4th round shares, but not necessarily prioritizing him over Hollywood Brown, Jerry Jeudy, or JuJu go in the same range.

I have been taking James Cook as my 3rd or on occasion 2nd RB all draft season.  I prefer Cook (ADP 102.1) over Singletary (106.4).  The rookie has more big play upside and will likely dominate the passing downs. Singletary will still have a roll, though, and I have no problem with taking either Buffalo back at what feels like reasonable prices.

Isaiah McKenzie has been wide reported as a camp standout.  He seems to have secured the first crack at the WR3 role and has seen his ADP (149.5) gradually rise in the 13th round.

 

New York Jets

 

It has been an eventful camp for second year Jets QB Zach Wilson.  He was the subject of an Instagram post from his ex-girlfriend that resulted in a thousand mom jokes.  Then in his first preseason game he suffered a non-contact knee injury that looked like it might be a season ending ACL tear.  Many amateur Twitter doctors were left with egg on their face when it only wound up being a bone bruise and a minor meniscus injury that shouldn’t cause him to miss more than a game or two at most.

After all this drama, the biggest concern might be that he hasn’t thrown the ball as well in camp as his 37-year-old back up, Joe Flacco.  Even with all the questions surrounding the former number two overall pick, I was quite relieved when it was revealed that he would not miss the entire season.  I am a good deal overweight on Wilson because I often drafted him as a cheap stacking partner with his talented receivers.

If you don’t already have too much Wilson, you might not find a cheaper opportunity to buy.  The injury scare drove his ADP down to 207.2, going as QB29 in the last (18th) round of drafts.

Elijah Moore (ADP 66.4) is one of my highest owned players.  Despite battling injuries and inconsistent QB play as rookie, Moore displayed flashes of brilliance, scoring 5 touchdowns.  There are not many position players being drafted in the 6th round that have a better chance of breaking out.  Garrett Wilson is an even better value going in the 10th round with an ADP of 116.8.  The 8th overall pick in the draft has been impressing in camp.  Harrison Glaser of Take Flight Media tweeted this quote from head coach Robert Salah,  “Garrett Wilson has elite body control & hands. He has freakish route running ability with what he can do to his body when trying to shake defenders.”

I think the negative perception of Zach Wilson and the Jet franchise in general have worked to suppress the ADP of their top receivers.  The same might be true of the Jet running back.  Breece Hall was the undisputed top RB in the rookie class after an extremely productive career at Iowa State.  He cemented that status when he ran a 4.39 at the combine.  Running backs with this profile are usually not available in the 4th of fantasy drafts  (ADP 42.8) as rookies.  He was by almost any measure, a better prospect than Najee Harris, who went in the late 1st/early 2nd.  Breece’s stock could be on the rise after he broke loose on a 70 yard TD run in scrimmage against the Falcons.

Talented second year back Michael Carter will also get work and is a good target in a zero RB build with reasonable ADP of 146.3.

 

New England Patriots

 

I initially avoided the Pats in the early draft season.  I figured the immobile Mac Jones was a better real life quarterback than a fantasy one.  There were too many chefs in the kitchen, fighting for usage at both running back and wide receiver.  As camp reports have trickled out, I begun to change that stance a bit.

Rhamondre Stevenson tore up the preseason as rookie and looked good during limited duty in the real games.  He had over 700 total yards and 5 touchdowns.  After a stream of positive beat reports and the retirement of James White, Stevenson’s ADP has been slowly creeping up and now sits at 87.2.  He currently going a full round a head of the presumed starter, Damien Harris (ADP 99.6).

It is being reported that the Patriots are using veteran Ty Montgomery in the James White (3rd down) role, but I am willing to bet the more talented Rhamondre eventually claims more of the passing game work.

The other Patriot that I’ve started to regularly draft is rookie 2nd round pick Tyquan Thorton who can often still be had in the last round (ADP 205.7) despite standing out in camp.  This draft pick caught a lot of hate because Thorton was surprisingly picked a head of more highly touted prospects such as George Pickens, Alec Pierce, and Skyy Moore.  Many viewed this as another example of New England’s inability to properly scout wide receiver.

With a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash, the speed was obviously there, but 6’3″ Thorton has looked more physical and capable as a route runner than I had expected in limited preseason action.  It may take a while for him to earn playing time with veterans Devante Parker, Jacobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor on the depth chart.  All of those veterans can play a role, but none of them are special.  Thorton might already be the most talented receiver on the roster.  I like Thorton to be earning significant playing time during the fantasy playoffs.  If he does, he can easily return value on a last round pick.

 

Miami Dolphins

 

The Phins are a tough team to handicap from a fantasy perspective.  Tyreek Hill was great in Kansas City.  Will he continue to be great with Tua throwing him the ball instead of Mahomes?  Waddle a super productive, target hog as a rookie.  Will he continue to be able to draw an elite target share with Hill in town?

They both go fairly high.  Hill has an ADP of 23.0 and Waddles is 38.0.  Tyreek and Mike McDaniel have gone out of their way to talk up Tua.  “It’s the most accurate, catchable ball I’ve ever seen.” is the exact quote from first year head coach.  It sounds like a crazy quote from a coach that is just trying to pump up his guy, but it’s easy to forget that before his hip injury Tua was considered an elite prospect.

I am not fully buying in. I’ve taken some Tyreek, but am still slightly underweight the field. I have even less Waddle.  I am trying to stack either with Tua on the occasions I do draft them.

I’ve taken a little bit Chase Edmonds (ADP 88.5), but only when I miss on the previously mentioned Rhamondre Stevenson and James Cook, who go in the same range.  I am full fade on Raheem Mostert (ADP 174.0), a talent dude that I do not trust at all to stay healthy.

It looks like Mike Gesicki (ADP 150.0) is going to have a lot less opportunities in the slot this year with Hill, Waddle, and Cedrick Wilson all lining up there at times.  He is a TE that I am generally passing on.  Unless something changes drastically in the next couple weeks, Miami is not going to make up a large part of my exposure.

 

We are less than 3 weeks away from opening kick off and I am more than ready for some football.  Sign up for VIP Access now and start building up that bankroll for the regular season!