Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/6:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- Shane McClanahan
- Merrill Kelly
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Baltimore Orioles (-155)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Orioles – Austin Voth
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. My initial thought is that I think this game goes under. I know the O’s offense can do damage but Brubaker isn’t a pushover on the mound. Voth has been pretty sold with Baltimore and we know the PIT offense is a bottom-of baseball squad at this point.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-210) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
A’s – Adam Oller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Oller is giving up a ton of power/extra-base hits to guys from both sides of the plate. The issue is that the Giants have been pretty cold. Rodon should be in a smash spot but I do question what his motivation might be after not being dealt.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Joey Bart
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers (-190)
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Lodolo hasn’t had the greatest success on the road but it’s a small sample. His K stuff has been strong everywhere and the Brewers, surprisingly, aren’t all that dangerous against LHPs. Ashby has been really strong at home and gets a pretty weak road team in this one.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Mike Brosseau
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I actually think this game ends up going over the opening total. The Yankees just traded Montgomery away and he probably isn’t happy about it but they certainly know how to attack him. German has had issues with RHBs and the Cards have a few that can do a ton of damage.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .295 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldshmidt, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .244 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. With the heart of the Chicago lineup heating up, I think they make an interesting stack but they aren’t going to be one that I want to be heavy on. This is one of those middling, can go multiple ways, type of game. Both SPs are more than capable of supplying a strong outing.
CWS 5-star plays: Eloy Jimenez
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-145) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Lynch is coming off of a strong start but he has had an ERA over 5 in each of the last 3 months. For a game with a 9 total, I really don’t love much from an offensive standpoint. Both offenses seem to be struggling at this point. I mean BOS has the bats that could wake up and go off today.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Christian Arroyo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .257 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-278) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Tigers – Garrett Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. My boy McClanahan taking on the lowly Tigers seems like a pretty dreamy spot today. Hill has been a reverse splits guy at the MLB level but Lowe is red hot at the plate. I know the Rays’ offense is lackluster so maybe Hill makes an interesting SP2 option on DK.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Lowe, Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .065 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-120) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Braves – Jake Odorizzi
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Riley has dominated Peterson and he has been destroying LHPs this season. Lindor comes in hot and has had plenty of success against Odorizzi in his career. Both offenses are swinging it well AND this series is extremely important to both teams, which makes for great baseball.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Robbie Grossman, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets (-130) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Mets – Max Scherzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We get the battle of the Max’s in a very low-totaled game. I know both offenses have been rolling at the plate but I love this SP match-up. Both guys can give up some runs but I do expect it to be a battle.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-190)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I know the main ARI bats have been cold but they all LOVE to face Senzatela. I am a bit shocked that I am going to fall in love with the ARI stack in this one. Kelly is a guy that I always tend to end up overweight on and I am not sure why but he hasn’t failed me all that much. He’s having a rather exceptional season in comparison to his true talent level.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker, Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-260)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I will be heading right back to the PHI train again today as they have some plus BvP against Corbin, they’ve been swinging it well, and Corbin just isn’t good at this point. Suarez should carry ownership and I understand why. He just needs to avoid walks and then he should be a pretty good bet to end up in a GPP-winning build.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
Miami Marlins (EVEN) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Marlins- Pablo Lopez
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. We get two scuffling offenses in Wrigley, so what’s going to give? Lopez has been really bad in 2 of his last 3 but he’s so good that I would expect him to turn that around today. Smyly isn’t anything special but he should get a boost facing this MIA lineup.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charles LeBlanc
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-210) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Angels – Chase Silseth
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I feel like the offenses are in a better spot but maybe Vegas knows more than I do (they probably do). Flexen does get to face a weakened LAA lineup but he hasn’t been all that strong this season. With France returning, the Mariners lineup gets better but it’s still not something that I think is strong enough to make the postseason.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adam Frazier, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners (-160) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Now this one definitely feels like an SP advantageous game. Detmers was great in July and obviously, he threw a no-hitter back in May. Kirby is an exciting, young, arm who has a ton of upside against a really weak LAA lineup at this point. This is the game I would pick to go under in the doubleheader.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Mitch White
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. As a Twins fan, I think Bundy is in deep trouble in this match-up. The TOR lineup has plenty of strong BvP and he can get hit HARD by RHBs. White is making his TOR debut and could be a solid option against a so-so MIN lineup right now. There could be some weather issues to monitor.
TOR 5-star plays: Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Gordon, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-165) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Garcia should end up fairly popular as most of the CLE lineup is either struggling or just weak overall. I think the HOU lineup could be sneaky today but they’ve been tough to figure out because the bottom has put up some bigger performances.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Pitchers:
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Dodgers – Andrew Heaney
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think the Dodgers could be the GPP winning stack tonight but we know that Clevinger is more than capable of containing them. The Dodgers certainly put up a statement performance last night after SD had all the hype thanks to the trade deadline. Heaney hasn’t been able to go deep but he’s been fairly impressive.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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