Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split-slate Tuesday, though most of the action will be on the main 12-game slate. With that comes a good selection of pitching and offensive options, as we have all sorts of different matchups to dig through today. There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
Big slates often give us a variety of pitching options, and today is no different. We get 6 pitchers with 500+ KSCOREs, 6 in the 300’s (one as low as 349 – yikes!), and the rest are somewhere in between. The allowed ISO is all over the place too, and we have a couple of more groups of 6 here: 6 pitchers have allowed more than .200 ISO over the past month, while another group of 6 has kept theirs under .100. And of course, some of these groups overlap, so things are a little tricky today, but that’s what makes this fun! Anyway, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll kick things off with the early games, starting with the Orioles and Guardians. Watkins and Quantrill will get the start here, and Vegas has this one marked down for an 8.0 implied run total. That seems pretty fair, and I don’t think we’ll have any weather concerns, so this should be a decent source of some early bird fantasy goodness.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mullins/Rutschman
GPP note – While not the best matchup on the day, there are a few bats here that are hitting righties for some power, and Quantrill is allowing moderate power to righties as well.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Gimenez/Kwan/Gonzalez
GPP note – Watkins is weaker to lefties, but his low strikeout rate should help to make righties a viable option here as well.
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Next up we have Hudson and the Cardinals taking on Dunn and the Reds. A whopping 10.0 total, this is the largest one we have on the day, so we’ll see if they live up to it. Considering who we have on the mound, and the ballpark they’re at, I don’t think they’ll have too much of a problem getting there.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Nootbaar/O’Neill
GPP note – This is a spicy matchup, so everybody is in play here. Try to work in some wrap-around stacks or other styles of stacks to get away from the basic approach everybody else will be looking to do.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Fraley
GPP note – Lefties have the advantage here, but like Watkins, Hudson’s strikeout rate is fairly low so you don’t have to skip the righties. It’s hard not to want to just go after him, as this game could rack up some scoring in a hurry.
Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
The final of our early game trio will feature McClanahan and the Rays set to take on Luzardo and the Marlins. A lowly 6.5 total, this is the lowest we have on the day. Perhaps some contrarian stacks are in order on this tiny slate?
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Arozarena/Paredes
GPP note – Not a great matchup, but there should be some bats to at least consider here. Lefties actually have the power advantage against Luzardo, so consider them an option, too.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Anderson/Fortes
GPP note – A bad matchup for these guys, but some are at least hitting lefties for power, so contrarian mini-stacks or one-offs are viable.
Main slate
Oakland Athletics at Washington Nationals
We’ll switch over to the main slate next, starting with Irvin and the Athletics taking on Fedde and the Nationals. We get a healthy 8.5 total here, but unfortunately there may be some weather concerns to watch out for. Keep your eye on the sky, as it would be a shame to tank a bunch of lineups if the first game of the slate gets rained out.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Murphy
GPP note – It’s a small sample size, but Fedde has allowed some power to righties, so consider taking some shots against him there.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Meneses/Voit/Cruz/Ruiz
GPP note – A middle-of-the-road matchup, Irvin does allow moderate power to both sides of the plate, so going with either hand is fine here.
Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays
Stroman and the Cubs will take on Gausman and the Blue Jays next, this game with an 8.0 total. I’m feeling the under here, but by how much, I’m not entirely sure. It’ll probably just depend on which version of each pitcher shows up but seeing as Stroman is visiting his former home field, I think he’ll be on his A-game.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras/Happ
GPP note – A mostly bad matchup for these bats, Gausman does at least allow moderate power to lefties, so if you really want a contrarian bat or two, you could try here.
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 3 star plays – Hernandez/Chapman
GPP note – Traditional splits are the best way to go here, though unfortunately there might not be many lefties to choose from. Stroman’s strikeout rate is low though, so you can still try some righties.
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Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Next up we have Kirby and the Mariners, who will take on Manning and the Tigers. A 7.5 total, this one certainly feels like another low-scoring affair. I’m not sure that this is the game to get cute with, and with 11 other games to choose from, it’s hard to recommend taking big shots here (outside of Kirby, of course).
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Suarez/Winker/Ralegh/Santana
GPP note – Though not quite as strong of a matchup as Manning’s salary might indicate, he does allow good power to lefties, so stacks are certainly in play here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Greene/Castro/Baez
GPP note – Another bad matchup on the day, there are a few bats here hitting for moderate power against righties, so some contrarian mini-stacks can be used.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
We’ll head back northeast for our next game, this one between the Dodgers and Mets. With Heaney and Walker on the mound, Vegas has given us an 8.5 total, and it’ll be interesting to see where this one drifts throughout the day. There’s a lot of firepower here, so this game will certainly have some eyes on it. Could some hedging be in order, too?
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner/Gallo
GPP note – Walker has had some rough outings lately, and this matchup isn’t doing him any favors. He’s allowing lots of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so all of these bats are in play.
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/Alonso
Mets 3 star plays – Canha/McNeil
GPP note – Tough matchup yet again on this slate, but Heaney does allow good power to righties and moderate xwOBA to lefties.
Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have Urena and the Rockies taking on Fried and the Braves. An 8.0 total, chances are we see most of the action coming from the home team, as Urena is, well, he’s having quite the tough stretch. I would say at least he’s not pitching at Coors again here, but I’m not sure it’s going to matter.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 3.5 star plays – Cron/Iglesias/Grichuk
GPP note – Fried is another tough target on the day, though these bats are hitting lefties for some power lately. Contrarian stacks are viable here, but maybe just small/medium-sized ones.
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Riley/Olson/Harris
GPP note – Finally, another spicy matchup, but unfortunately, they won’t be sneaky. Try some wrap-around stacks or other styles to be a little different here or dig deep with your secondary stacks.
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
Our next matchup is between the Red Sox and Twins, with Crawford and Archer getting the start. We move up to a 9.0 total here, but at least this time both offenses are slated for over 4 runs. We have all sorts of punts and studs to choose from here, so be sure you’re getting your pickings.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Bogaerts/Martinez
GPP note – A decent matchup for this squad, Archer is allowing good power to both sides (slightly more to righties), though when he’s not getting hit around, he does have a decent strikeout rate. Consider hedging here some if you grab either side.
Twins 4 star plays – Correa/Kepler/Miranda
Twins 3.5 star plays – Gordon
GPP note – A plus matchup for the Twins, Crawford allows lots of power to lefties and some moderate wOBA to righties. Feel free to grab stacks of any size here.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
We’ll head on down south for our next game, this one featuring our Texas teams. Valdez and the Astros will face off against Dunning and the Rangers here, and we move back down to a 7.5 total for this one. I think Vegas’ assessment is pretty fair here and reaching the over (or staying under) may just depend on how awake the Houston bats are.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Tucker/Mancini
GPP note – Dunning allows good power to righties, so be sure to grab some with your Alvarez shares.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Lowe/Heim
GPP note – Not a good matchup for these guys, though the two above are hitting lefties pretty well.
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Kansa City Royals at Chicago White Sox
Next up we have Singer and my Royals taking on Giolito and the White Sox. Another 7.5 total, I’m definitely feeling the under here (provided the KC bullpen can avoid imploding). While there are a few bats worth a look, I think we’ll get a nice little pitcher’s duel for a while, so do consider taking some shares of each of them.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Witt/Perez, Pratto
GPP note – Giolito can be tough, but he is allowing moderate power to lefties and a good chunk of wOBA to righties. I wouldn’t go nuts here, but a bat or two couldn’t hurt.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Vaughn/Abreu/Jimenez
GPP note – Singer has been tough and might be able to hold these bats down for a while, but there’s always the bullpen to pick on. Consider hedging here if you’re interested in either side.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Keller and the Pirates will take on Alexander and the Brewers next, and we pop back up to a 9.0 total for this game. This is another one of those lopsided-looking games, as the home team claims over 5 of those runs for themselves. However, I think the Pirates will be able to hold their own here, so we’ll see if they can live up to my praise.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Cruz
GPP note – Alexander is no stranger to getting roughed up and will offer 1-3 innings of low strikeout fun for these bats to take advantage of. He gives up more power to righties, so if you do go here, consider some RvR bats.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, McCutchen/Hiura/Renfroe/Adames
GPP note – Basically the same as above, except that Keller allows less power overall. These bats will probably be more popular but should still serve well as a secondary stack.
Late games
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with Taillon and the Yankees set to take on Mayers and the Angels. Another game full of studs, we have a bunch of home run hitters here, so even though we only have an 8.5 total, I think it’ll be more popular than a random 8.5 game would be.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Benintendi/Rizzo, Stanton/Donaldson
GPP note – Mayers tends to give up some power, though he is giving up far more to righties than he is lefties. Be sure you’re mixing in some righties outside of just Judge and Stanton.
Angels 5 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Ward/Velazquez
GPP note – Taillon isn’t the softest target on the day, but he does allow a good amount of power to both sides. There’s bound to be a homer or two here, so small/medium-sized stacks are in play at the very least.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Nola and the Phillies will take on Gallen and the Diamondbacks next, and this game carries a 7.5 total. Another game I’m feeling the under on, we do have some bigger names than the KC/CHW game, but I think we’ll get another decent pitcher’s duel. I could see a homer or two coming from this one, but maybe not enough fireworks otherwise to carry this game to the over.
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper
Phillies 3 star plays – Schwarber/Hoskins/Realmuto
GPP note – Gallen has been tough to crack and racks up plenty of strikeouts, so be careful with large stacks here. Contrarian minis or one-offs are perfectly fine, though.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Walker/Varsho, Marte
GPP note – Same as above, though Nola does allow a little bit of power to righties.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Padres and Giants. Snell and Webb will get the start here, and with that, another 7.5 total. I could see this one being a little iffy, mostly due to Webb having some issues lately and the Padres having such a potent offense. This game makes a good argument for hedging (the previous one does too, but maybe to a lesser extent), so if that’s not something you normally do, consider giving it a try here.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Soto/Machado, Drury
GPP note – I should be able to say “same as the previous game” but Webb has had a couple of rough outings in his last two starts. Don’t be afraid to attack him here in case that trend continues (or you could hedge in case he does bounce back).
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Longoria/Davis
GPP note – Basically the same as above, but Snell does carry a higher strikeout rate. There are a few bats here that are hitting lefties well, so some contrarian stacks are worth a look.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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