Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/27:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kyle Gibson
- Dustin May
- Yu Darvish
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Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-250)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Mets – David Peterson
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. I actually wouldn’t be shocked to see a 4-2 type game. I do normally like COL against LHPs but when they are on the road, they just aren’t as potent. The Mets could certainly put up some runs but Freeland can jump up out of nowhere and surprise a bit.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randall Grichuk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso, Starling Marte
4-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Cardinals – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Montgomery has been great with the Cardinals and while the Braves are a very difficult match-up, they do have some K issues. Morton has been pretty up and down this season and it’s a tough spot for him. When we get spots like this, I tend to take guys in mini-stacks or as one-offs.
ATL 5-star plays: Matt Olson
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays (-155)
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this pitching match-up and then I looked at some BvP history and realized we could get a couple of strong games from bats in this one. Springer has owned Ohtani in their match-ups and I think Manoah wakes up to dominate after LAA dominated Friday night.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Jo Adell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: George Springer, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ Minnesota Twins (-140)
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins finally woke up last night and it’s time for them to put up or shut up as they’ve relinquished the AL Central lead. Longoria is rolling at the plate and he has had success against Gray in his career. Cobb can definitely shut down the Twins and makes an interesting GPP option.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Gary Sanchez
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
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San Diego Padres (-225) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Yu is definitely going to be popular today. The Padres probably need to be as well but they might be because of how well they performed on Friday, winning a LOT of people money with their performance. Witt is heating up and I like him as a one-off at the SS position.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado, Wil Myers
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Ha Seong Kim
GPP Note: Team ISO of .097 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-205)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I really expect this game to play to the low total. The Brewers are actually pretty bad against LHPs and they need Woodruff to keep being dominant. I could get behind a couple of mini-stacks or one-offs as we look for the 1-2 HRs that will be hit in this one.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-210) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Dustin May
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 6.5. The Dodgers just smacked Alcantara around last week. I don’t expect that to happen again but it does show that he might not be a great option today. The Dodgers’ lineup is rolling right now. May should dominate the Marlins’ lineup and needs to carry pretty heavy ownership.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JJ Bleday
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies (-278)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Tyler Beede
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a match-up that really shouldn’t end up being very close at all. Gibson and the Phillies are in such an elite spot. I want to see this PHI offense rolling as the season winds down. They have such a dangerous offense and it adds another team to be heavy on from a stack perspective.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rodolfo Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Houston Astros (-178)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. After the Astros let me down in a great spot last night, I want to go back to them tonight. Kremer gets hit harder by RHBs than LHBs, not as extreme as Bradish, but this is generally an opponent that you don’t want reverse splits against. I wanted to be on more BAL bats but the offense has cooled off.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
White Sox – Davis Martin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The CWS lineup just doesn’t look great on paper right now so Kelly could end up being one of those sneaky great GPP options for us. I know that the ARI lineup got to Cueto last night but I’m not sure they are strong enough to put up back-to-back big-time performances.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers (-120)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Rangers – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Rangers have bats that are swinging it extremely well right now. E-Rod looked great recently so it should be an interesting match-up. The Detroit lineup is so bad but so is Keuchel. The big question becomes, who wins when bad meets bad at the MLB level?
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Victor Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Mark Mathias, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-235) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Yankees – Domingo German
A’s – Adam Oller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Judge is going to bypass the 50 HR mark today! The Yankees lineup feels like it’s on the cusp of breaking out completely and I think the return of Stanton was the energy that they needed. Langeliers just keeps hitting, which I love to see as a guy who loves MLB prospect watching.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shea Langeliers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners (-178)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Mariners – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I think the Mariners wake up against Plesac and Castillo reminds us as to why SEA gave up so much to acquire him. I know the Guardians lineup can be annoying/pesky but I really think he puts together a great performance. Haniger is my under the radar Dinger call for tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals (-140)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Cessa
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The CIN offense won a bunch of people money last night while destroying my love of Cade Cavalli. I still believe Cade is going to be a stud at the MLB level. We have two very below average MLB pitchers on the mound but the problem is that both of the offenses are well below average.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffery Springs
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Rays are in a solid spot as a few guys are either swinging it extremely well or have hit Hill really well in their careers. Add in that there are a couple of guys in both categories and you get some GPP upside. The BOS roster is hitting .305 over the last week and that’s interesting to see with how rough they were for a while.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Kike Hernandez, Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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