Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Robbie Ray
- Nestor Cortes
- Merrill Kelly
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants (-115)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. If I like Kelly (which I do), I probably need to be interested in Junis as well for this one. I just think that Kelly offers more upside despite it being a slightly more difficult match-up for him. Walker continues to just destroy the baseball so I might have to move him to a 5-Star play in this article.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Lamont Wade
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Pivetta has gone on dominant stretches before and this is the type of spot that could get him going in that direction. The Pirates lineup lacks much from a danger standpoint. Keller has always intrigued people around baseball but he seems to never completely put it together. He has allowed just 1 run in 4 of his last 6 starts, which makes him an interesting GPP option for us.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-235)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Deam Kremer
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Kremer hasn’t faced TOR yet this season but I don’t like some of his trends in this spot. He has allowed hitters an average of .307 on the road while RHBs have hit him harder than LHBs (TOR has a few RHBs with pop). Manoah has made two starts against BAL with one being decent and the first one being strong. He has been at his best when pitching at home in 2022.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-170)
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffrey Springs
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Yankees lineup is struggling mightily right now while the Rays aren’t exactly elite either. Cortes should be very high up on our list tonight as I think he needs to give the Yankees some energy. I know I have been on the regression wagon for him but I don’t think it comes tonight. With how the Yankees have struggled recently, Springs becomes a very interesting GPP option.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
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Colorado Rockies @ St Louis Cardinals (-220)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Cardinals – Jose Quintana
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I will have a token stack of the Rockies since they are facing an LHP but this isn’t Coors and they haven’t been on the road in a bit. The Cardinals are always near the top of my list when they get to face an LHP. It’s a match-up like this that makes me wish I could use 2 first baseman on DK! Quintana should make our pitching pool as a decent GPP option.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols
4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .254 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers (-120)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Ryan Pepiot
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I think the Dodgers get the W in this game, despite having to take on Woodruff. The offense is just too dangerous and the Brewers lineup is the opposite right now. Pepiot flashes excellent stuff but the main worry is walks coming back to bite him.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .277 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Manaea hasn’t been very good for weeks now so it’s tough to trust him, even against an extremely weak MIA lineup. Cabrera has a big time arm with impressive K upside but do we want to rely on him against this SD offense?
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jacob Stallings
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-190) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Reds – TJ Zeuch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This one has a pretty healthy total and I like to see it. I hope that Schwarber returns tonight as it makes the overall lineup more dangerous. Stott is swinging it extremely well and has been in the lead-off spot the last couple of games. Gibson should be in a great spot but I don’t love taking pitching in this ballpark.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryson Stott
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .071 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Fraley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .063 over the last week.
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New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-145)
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw the Braves explode after the rain delay last night and I think it continues tonight. Walker is certainly capable of holding down an offense but I also think he can allow too much contact at times, which isn’t an ideal thing against this ATL lineup. I wouldn’t talk you out of a NYM stack either as we know that Morton has had some struggles this season, mostly earlier on.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-125) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. The premier pitching match-up tonight puts a couple of top 5 pitchers in the AL Cy Young race against each other. I don’t think Cease has much of a chance at the Cy Young given the CWS struggles but he could make a statement tonight. On the other side, Verlander keeps throwing like he’s some 25 year old yet. No reason to stack either side but I don’t mind mini-stacks and one-offs. Verlander isn’t racking up Ks at the rate you’d think and Cease walks too many guys.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-220)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Garrett Hill
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We saw Civale step up and rack up the Ks against Detroit so maybe we have to be on Plesac against this light hitting DET squad. Hill hasn’t shown the K upside he flashed in the minors so CLE is going to make plenty of contact. The issue is that a majority of the CLE lineup is pretty blah right now. They feel more like a strong mini-stack candidate than a strong full-stack.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .064 over the last week
CLE 5-star plays: Andres Gimenez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
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Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers (-120)
Pitchers:
Athletics – JP Sears
Rangers – Kohei Arihara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. As far as pitcher talent goes, I would prefer to be on Sears tonight. He has flashed a strong ability at the MLB level but the issue here is that Arihara has the FAR easier match-up in this one. I will have a stack or three of the Rangers but they are one that I’m not overly confident in.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .072 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Adolis Garcia
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs (-160) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I always want to attack Corbin but stacking the Cubs isn’t exactly high up on my list of desires. Steele has been really good and probably gets over looked a ton because he’s on the Cubs. I know that his DK price is WAY too low and I am not sure what he has to do to get a price increase. If I was bold enough, I’d take a shot with Franmil as my Dinger call but I’m just not ready to go that route.
CHC 5-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Meneses, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-170) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Ray is going to end up my highest owned SP on tonight’s slate. I keep waiting on the SEA lineup to get hot again but maybe we need to consider Suarez as a GPP dart play at his price point. Haniger and Crawford seem like the best combo to attack Suarez with tonight, in the SEA lineup.
SEA 5-star plays: Mitch Haniger
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Rengifo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-195)
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Pasquantino is red hot at the plate as he hit one that still hasn’t landed yet, in the first inning last night. I will keep stacking against Greinke even if he makes me look like an idiot because I am pot committed at this point. I keep waiting for Buxton to go on this ridiculous stretch where he goes like 16 for 24, etc.
KC 5-star plays: Vinnie Pasquantino
4-star plays: MJ Melendez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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