Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Tyler Anderson
- Cristian Javier
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants (-240)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Giants – Alex Wood
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Wood is strong enough to make my main pool of pitchers on most days so getting to face the Pirates only makes it better. The two PIT bats below make for an interesting combination, as long as Hayes returns to the lineup. I really expect Joc to go on a tear soon as we haven’t seen a hot streak out of him for a while.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Luis Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-135) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. On the surface, I feel like the Yankees smash Wacha while Taillon steps up and has a dominant outing. I wish Taillon would showcase more K upside at this point but maybe that’s just me being picky. Rizzo has crushed Wacha in their battles over the years.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Toronto Blue Jays (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 7.5. I love this pitching match-up as a baseball fan (I also have both guys in my big Dynasty league). I know both guys are top tier but I don’t mind taking a mini-stack of either side but mainly the TOR side with how dangerous they are. Gausman has looked extremely strong over his last couple.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Matt Chapman
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-175)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There still hasn’t been an update as to why Rasmussen was pulled after 3 no-hit innings his last time out. That makes me wonder if they are trying to limit his innings if they didn’t come out with some sort of injury/illness. Lyles is one of those pitchers that seems to fail when he carries ownership and crushes when he’s barely owned.
BAL 5-star plays: Anthony Santander
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies (-125)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Tommy Henry
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. Henry has looked decent in his brief MLB career but going into Coors, especially as an LHP, is a tall task. I love stacking COL against LHPs, especially at home. The best way for ARI to attack Feltner is with their LHBs today.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I know that Singer has been really good but this Dodgers lineup is absolutely rolling right now. I won’t be betting against them for the time being. Anderson continues to overachieve but I don’t think I can argue being heavy on him today. The Royals’ lineup just doesn’t scare anybody against LHPs.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Max Muncy
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .311 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Brent Rooker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-292) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Padres – Blake Snell
Nationals – Paulo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Sell has given up 1 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 7 and now he takes on an overly weak WSH squad. He does have to avoid a couple of hot hitters but I think his upside is extremely strong. I would expect the Padres bats to get to Espino for 5+ runs in this one.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Joey Meneses
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. When was the last time we saw a 3-game stretch between two over .500 teams end up with less than 10 runs scored? This series has been all about the pitching and we get another great match-up today. There have been 4 runs scored in this series so far. A couple of bats have been hot and Alonso has hit Wheeler extremely well.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryson Stott, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Braves – Bryce Elder
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Braves are always going to find their way into my top stacks against LHPs even if they do worry me about their Ks. Garrett has flashed big stuff but I think they get to him today. Elder is a decent option against such a terrible, overall, lineup.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Wendle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-205)
Pitchers:
Tigers -Tyler Alexander
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really think this could be the spot for the top half of the CWS lineup to go off and win us some money. There is some solid BvP in their favor and a few guys are swinging it decently. Lynn can dominate anybody and this DET squad is swinging a wet pool noodle at the plate right now.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .055 over the last week
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals (-145)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am going to be extremely high on the Cardinals today. They have a lineup that can dominate against LHPs and Ashby has been far weaker on the road. I generally like to pick on Mikolas a bit but the MIL lineup has been extremely cold, which might make him a sneaky GPP option.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last week.
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Oakland Athletics @ Houston Astros (-267)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Astros – Cristian Javier
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Javier will be one of my highest-owned pitchers. He has REALLY taken a leap forward and the HOU coaching staff has finally allowed him to pitch every 5 days. Irvin is a guy that can do just enough to frustrate us but I will keep stacking HOU against a guy like him.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tony Kemp
GPP Note: Team ISO of .071 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs (-155) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Reds – Justin Dunn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Thompson has 10 Ks in 25 PAs against the CIN roster (that’s pretty impressive). I realize this game has a 9 total but it’s really tough to get excited about stacking one of these teams. I think the Cubs’ RHBs might be the key to a big win today and so much so that I really want to go on a limb with a Franmil Dinger call.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Madrigal, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .064 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really want to stack the SEA side but Perez has been really damn good against them this season. Gilbert has plenty of upside but a few TEX bats have had success against him. My initial thought is that one of the pitchers could be a route to a winning build, over the offenses.
SEA 5-star plays: Sam Haggerty
4-star plays: Mitch Haniger, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-140) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Twins – Chris Archer
Angels – Tucker Davidson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. After the Twins’ pen blew yet another W, I hope the offense comes out today and dominates against an SP that has struggled a TON at the MLB level. I wish I could be on Archer but with how the Twins treat their SPs, I don’t think he provides us enough upside.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Fletcher, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St Louis Cardinals
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Max Muncy, LAD
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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