Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nilly and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a 13-game main slate tonight, complete with a few stud pitchers, some gas cans, and a Coors game. There will be a lot of way to go today, though unfortunately some of those gas cans will also be at Coors, so it might even be a little chalkier than usual. Thankfully there are those other routes to take, so for now, let’s dig in and see what we can find!
A look at pitchers
We have our usual wide range of pitching options tonight, so finding cash game pitchers will be easy enough. Guys like Scherzer and Rodon are heavy favorites and their opponents have sub-3.0 IRTs, which is always a good start. There are some nice alternatives, such as Kluber and Garcia, and even that Kirby guy has been pitching well lately. On the flip side, with Davies and Senzatela starting at Coors, well, things could get ugly for them in a hurry. There are plenty of other interesting options in between, so as always, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Main slate
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
We’ll kick things off with the Padres and Nationals, with Clevinger and Abbott on the mound. We get a 9.0 IRT right away, which is always nice to see on a Coors slate, as it gives us a good place to look for an alternative. Not that the Padres will be sneaky, but maybe the Nationals have a few bats worth looking at?
Padres 5 star plays – Soto
Padres 4 star plays – Bell/Machado, Profar
GPP note – Coming in scoring 20 runs in two games is a nice start, and Abbott allowing a good chunk of power to lefties is swell bonus. They won’t be sneaky, but they are in a pretty good spot here.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Voit, Y Hernandez
GPP note – Clevinger has been solid but is allowing some decent power to lefties, so you could consider grabbing a bat or two here. Voit has solid RvR numbers as well.
Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we have Quantrill and the Guardians taking on Berrios and the Blue Jays. Another 9.0 IRT, the scales are certainly tipped towards the home team, and for good reason. Still, there are some Cleveland bats worth a look if you need some lower-owned players.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gimenez
GPP note – Berrios has been tough (sans that game against the Twins) and has a higher-than-average strikeout rate, so he could hold these guys down. However, Cleveland has a lot of bats with low strikeout rates, so this might not be a terrible place to hedge (they shouldn’t see a ton of ownership with a sub-4.0 IRT). Righties get the power advantage here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Guerrero/Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Chapman/Gurriel/Bichette
GPP note – Great spot for these guys, especially the righties as that’s where Quantrill has been at his weakest. Wouldn’t you know it, but there are a ton of power righties here.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
We get a good ol’ rivalry game next, with German and the Yankees taking on Eovaldi and the Red Sox. We get a little bump to a 9.5 IRT, but this feels like a game where we’ll either be way under or way over that mark. Do with that what you will, but to me this game just screams low floor/high ceiling.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Rizzo, LeMahieu/Donaldson/Trevino
GPP note – Both Eovaldi and the Yankees have had their struggles as of late, so this might be another good hedge spot. Righties get the power advantage, but Eovaldi tends to have epic meltdowns when he has a bad game, so everybody is in play here for full stacks.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Martinez, Bogaerts/Pham/Hosmer
GPP note – German has had some struggles of his own, so this isn’t a bad place to go, either. He’s giving up more contact and power (to both sides) than most pitchers tonight since his return, so don’t be afraid to load up against him.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Norris and the Tigers take on Kopech and the White Sox next, this game with an 8.5 total. That seems reasonable, considering the matchup on both sides, so I don’t think we’ll get any surprises here.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Baez/Candelario
GPP note – These guys aren’t hitting righties very well, but Kopech has a low strikeout rate and is allowing plenty to both sides, so this could be a decent spot to take some pivot bats.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu/Robert, Vaughn/Moncada
GPP note – Norris and the bullpen probably won’t have much to slow these bats down, so they’re all in play. I would favor the righties over any lefties here, as they have better RvR numbers than RvL.
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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Moving on we get the Phillies and Mets, with Suarez and Scherzer on the hill. We have a 7.0 total here, though if both pitchers show up and do what they’re capable of doing, we could easily see the lower here. Mad Max will bad popular, of course, but maybe Suarez is worth a look for GPP use, too?
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber
GPP note – A tough matchup, as expected, but there’s always some power upside against Scherzer. A one-off or mini-stack as a contrarian move isn’t off the table.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 3.5 star plays – Lindor/Alonso, Marte
GPP note – Suarez has held his own and likely won’t be a pushover here. These guys are hitting lefties for power, though Suarez isn’t really allowing much, so you consider both a hedge and a fade here.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Next up we have Voth and the Orioles set to take on Kluber and the Rays. Kluber always makes a good alternative to the other popular pitchers, though Voth looks to be an interesting SP2 considering his price and random strong showings. Sounds like a fun arm to take a few gambles on!
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Rutschman
GPP note – It’s not a great spot against Kluber by any means, but he does allow some power to lefties. You could try a couple of them against him for some lower-owned contrarian pivots.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe
GPP note – Voth can go 4-5 innings here without giving up a whole lot, so I could see this offense being underwhelming. Lefties have a slight advantage here, but it’s nothing special.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
We’ll head on over to Texas for our next two games, the first being between the Mariners and Rangers. Kirby and Sborz will get the start here, and it’s hard to recommend playing the latter since he’ll probably only see an inning or two at the most. Kirby, on the other hand, has good games in him, so it’ll be interesting to see if he has one of those here.
Mariners 5 star plays -none
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Suarez/Santana
GPP note – A questionable bullpen matchup, a few of these bats have decent RvR numbers so you can look at them as pivot options.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Seager, Lowe/Semien/Garcia
GPP note – Kirby has been tough so I could see this offense struggling a bit here, at least while he’s in the game. Some of them do have good numbers against righties though, so a hedge here is an option if you’re worried about them taking off.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Our other Texas game will feature Oller and the Athletics taking on Garcia and the Astros. This one is heavily favored for the home team, though I don’t think that should be a surprise to anybody. Perhaps the A’s can pull off the upset here, but they’ll need to be on their A-game to do it (pun definitely intended).
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Murphy/Laureano/Brown, Kemp/Pinder
GPP note – Garcia isn’t a great target, but does allow some power to both sides and should be a popular option, so going contrarian here isn’t the worst move you could make. A lot of these bats do have good recent power against righties, for what it’s worth.
Astros 5 star plays – Alvarez
Astros 4 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Gurriel/Tucker
GPP note – A great spot for these, as can be seen by their IRT that is inches away from topping a 6.0. However, they don’t have the best numbers against righties recently, so if you’re feeling bold, you could fade them (though it isn’t fun fading a non-Coors team on a Coors slate, so I don’t blame you if you stick with them).
Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Gonsolin and the Dodgers taking on Lynch and my Royals, this game with a 9.0 total. My guys have looked like a proper baseball team as of late, but this will certainly be a test for them. I’m not going to try to convince anybody that they’ll run away with the series here or anything, but they do at least offer some budget players that nobody else will be using.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts/T Turner
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman/J Turner
GPP note – Lynch has been holding his own fairly well, and could potentially hold these guys back a little for a few innings at this pitcher-friendly ballpark. It’s the Dodgers though, and they are smashing lefties, so if you want to just go with the flow and stack them, I wouldn’t blame you.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Perez/Melendez, Witt
GPP note – Gonsolin is allowing good power to both sides of the plate and these guys are showing some signs of life, so you could grab a few lower-owned bats here. On the flip side, there’s a lot of strikeout upside here, so if you do grab some KC bats, consider hedging with some Gonsolin lineups.
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Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll head down I-70 for our next matchup, this one between the Brewers and Cardinals. Lauer and Montgomery will get the start here, and Vegas is giving them a 7.5 total as an opening. Montgomery looks to have the best salary to opposing IRT against him on the slate, making him an interesting option to consider.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich, McCutchen
GPP note – Vegas isn’t giving them much love, though it’s hard to with their performance against lefties lately. However, Montgomery does allow plenty of power to righties, so you could always try a few bats here for a contrarian one-off or mini-stack.
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
Cardinals 4 star plays – Edman/O’Neill/Carlson
GPP note – A pretty nice spot for the righties, which there are plenty of, Lauer has a low strikeout rate and allows a good chunk of power to right-handed bats. Hopefully their lower IRT keeps them a little under the radar, but we’ll see.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Up next we have our Coors game, which looks to be extra chalky considering we have a couple of gas cans starting. That would be Davies and Senzatela, and well, best of luck to the both of you!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Marte/Varsho/Rojas/Kelly
GPP note – It’s Coors and they’re facing Senzatela, so you know the drill. Try not to forget about the cheaper bats down low, though.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/McMahon, Grichuk/Rodgers
GPP note – Same as above. They’ll be popular as can be, so try some wrap-around stacks or other types of stacks to be a little different (and get off the beaten path with your secondary stacks).
Late games
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll move on to our late night games, starting with Mahle and the Twins taking on Sandoval and the Angels. A modest 8.0 total, there are a handful of bats in decent spots here, so I could see this one pushing the over without as much ownership as a lot of the other games.
Twins 5 star plays – Buxton
Twins 4 star plays – Correa, Polanco/Arreaz/Miranda/Gordon
GPP note – Sandoval is pitching pretty well but does have a high xwOBA against him coming from the righties. That’s sort of a “hidden” stat, and that combined with the Twins’ relatively low IRT should keep them lesser owned than other offenses – hint hint, wink wink!
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani
Angels 3.5 star plays – Stassi/Ward/Fletcher/Rengifo
GPP note – Mahle has his good and bad days, so taking some shots against him – even with such a low IRT – isn’t a terrible idea. He’s allowing a ton of power to righties, so consider taking some of those to go with Ohtani.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the slate with the Pirates and Giants, with Wilson and Rodon at the helm. Another game that favors the home team, it’s hard to see the Pirates’ offense overcoming Rodon here, but I suppose stranger things have happened. As long as the San Francisco offense can give Rodon some run support (which shouldn’t be very hard to do, especially for the lefties), they ought to have this one in the bag.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3 star plays – Cruz/Hayes/Newman
GPP note – Oof. Terrible matchup aside, nobody will be playing these guys, so you could try the three above since they have decent numbers against lefties lately.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Belt/Yastrzemski, Pederson/La Stella
GPP note – Wilson is allowing plenty to lefties, so that would be the way to go here. Unfortunately, these guys have bad numbers against righties over the last few weeks, so you could consider fading them for that reason (again, I know, fading a non-Coors team stinks).
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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