MLB DFS Main Slate Advice | Picks, Stacks, Strategy Projections Today August 11th | Fanduel Draftkings

Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 8/11:

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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers

I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the  MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.

  • Dylan Cease
  • Nick Lodolo
  • Merrill Kelly

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 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-190)

Pitchers:

Pirates – JT Brubaker

D’Backs – Merrill Kelly

Rundown:

This game opened with a total of 9. Kelly wasn’t sharp against PIT earlier this season but he has given up 2 runs or less in 7 straight starts and his K numbers jump when he’s pitching at home. He is going to end up one of my favorite options today. I’m a fan of Brubaker but the D’Backs have hit 3 HRs in 31 PAs against them in their careers. He’s had success against a handful of the ARI lineup but he’s been hit hard by a few guys.

PIT 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Ben Gamel

GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.

ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker

4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Alek Thomas

GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.


Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox (-135)

Pitchers:

Orioles – Austin Voth

Red Sox – Josh Winckowski

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both offenses come in with some power at play over the last week. I don’t think either pitcher is particularly difficult and we have seen plenty of runs in Boston, on warm days. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 4-5 HRs in this game, but it does suck that this one is just one of two games this evening.

BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays

4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle

GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.

BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers

4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Pham

GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.


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St Louis Cardinals (-120) @ Colorado Rockies

Pitchers:

Cardinals – Dakota Hudson

Rockies – German Marquez

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 12. I think we see another typical Coors game as both pitchers lean towards more power to RHBs (reverse splits) and both teams have PLENTY of power from that side of the plate. I am going back to Goldschmidt as my Dinger call after he let me down yesterday. As a pitcher I learned long ago that doubling up on a pitch can lead to great results so let’s do it with the Dinger of the Day!

STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt

4-star plays: Paul DeJong, Nolan Arenado

GPP Note: Team ISO of .215 over the last week.

COL 5-star plays: Randal Grichuk

4-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers

GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.


Chicago White Sox (-190) @ Kansas City Royals

Pitchers:

White Sox – Dylan Cease

Royals – Zack Greinke

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. Somehow Greinke has an ERA of just 2.23 at home this season, which seems like something that can’t be real (7.16 on the road). Cease is about as elite as they come in terms of strikeout ability, he just needs to learn to control some of his walks and contain his pitch count. Cease has allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in 13 consecutive starts and while that’s a really tough thing to do at the MLB level, I wouldn’t be against him doing it a 14th straight time.

CWS 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn

GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.

KC 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: MJ Melendez

GPP Note: Team ISO of .207 over the last week.


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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (-170)

Pitchers:

Marlins – Edward Cabrera

Phillies – Kyle Gibson

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. Gibson has allowed 6 runs in 18.2 innings against MIA this season. He has 17 Ks and now takes on a lineup that has turned the page to younger prospects, for the most part. I think he’s a decently safe arm today, especially because he’s at home. Cabrera has a big time arm and that provides us big time upside but he can get wild and the Phillies are swinging the power bats right now.

MIA 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Joey Wendle, JJ Bleday

GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.

PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins

4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber

GPP Note: Team ISO of .346 over the last week.


Cleveland Guardians (-170) @ Detroit Tigers

Pitchers:

Guardians – Zach Plesac

Tigers – Garrett Hill

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think we have to consider both SPs in this game, which isn’t very exciting. Both of the offenses look to be swinging wet, pool noodles at the plate right now. I know that can change at any point but it’s enough to make me not want to stack in this game. Plesac always looks like a guy we should be using but then he goes out and allows 3+ runs in 5 straight starts.

CLE 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Steven Kwan

GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.

DET 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Willi Castro, Riley Greene

GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.


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Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros (-320)

Pitchers:

Rangers – Cole Ragans

Astros – Framber Valdez

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 8. Valdez will garner ownership via name and the fact that, overall, the Rangers haven’t been very good. Garcia and Seager have had success against him and both guys are swinging it quite well right now. I like that combination as a mini-stack today. Ragans looked solid in his debut against the White Sox but this HOU lineup is far more difficult to navigate.

TEX 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager

GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.

HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve

4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Trey Mancini

GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.


Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds (-115) (Field of Dreams)

Pitchers:

Cubs – Drew Smyly

Reds – Nick Lodolo

Rundown:

This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a thrilling match-up taking place at the Field of Dreams! I really do wish I had planned my vacation days better so that I could be at this game and I’m not a fan of either team. We get a match-up of 2 LHPs that should carry ownership tonight. Lodolo is the young arm with big upside but also HR issues to RHBs while Smyly is the vet with a pretty high floor and enough upside to make him dangerous.

CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras

4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Franmil Reyes

GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.

CIN 5-star plays: NONE

4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Donovan Solano

GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.


Stacks of the Day: Main Slate

  1. St Louis Cardinals
  2. Colorado Rockies
  3. Houston Astros

MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, St Louis

 

As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.

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