Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Aug 23, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Cincinnati Reds second baseman Jonathan India (6) hits a double against the Philadelphia Phillies during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Jonathan India O 5.5fpt
CIN vs STL
India is really heating up at the plate. He continues to hit at the top of this Reds lineup that gets to go home to one of the best hitter’s ballparks in all of baseball. Miles Mikolas is a good pitcher but he pitches to contact. When the ball is put in play in this stadium, it usually means trouble. Mikolas throws the slider the most to RHBs. This is the pitch that India hits the best. Mikolas’s second most-used pitch, the fastball, happens to be the second best pitch India hits off of. All eight of India’s home runs have come against RHPs. St. Louis is coming off of a Sunday night game where they now have to travel into Cincinnati. The teams that had to travel after a Sunday night game have performed well below expectations this season. Mikolas is not a pitcher that should cause India’s line to be this low especially in this great of a hitter’s park.
Miles Mikolas O 30.5fpt
STL @ CIN
On the other side, Mikolas’s fantasy score might be too low. The Cardinals are clearly the better team. This Cincinnati team is dealing with injuries and have some minor league call ups on the roster. They do not have the same home and road splits they had two months ago. Brandon Drury was traded to the Padres. From July 1, the Reds have a 85 wRC+ against RHPs when playing at home. That ranks 4th worst in the league. They have a 27.9% strikeout rate under the same circumstance which leads the league. Mikolas pitches to contact and limits walks which is a recipe for going deep into games. He pretty much pitches at least 6 innings every start. Giving Mikolas 7IP, 2ER, 4K would put him at 31fpt with the quality start. He could possibly not go as deep as 7 innings but his strikeout line is at 4.5. He also could get the win and go over that way.
Kyle Farmer O 5.5fpt
CIN vs STL
This is a player to take if you would like to stack with Jonathan India. These two usually hit back-to-back. Farmer is having a decent season so far that has bumped him into a higher batting order slot. He hits the fastball and slider the best, two of Mikolas’s most used pitches against RHBs. I prefer India because he is the better player and offers more stolen base upside. They are both at 5.5 and offer correlation. Farmer is playable alone but I do think it is best to play him with India in any entries that do not have Mikolas. If you believe in the Sunday night baseball narrative, this play fits right in line.
Rhys Hoskins O 1.5tb
PHI @ ARI
The Phillies welcomed back Bryce Harper back into their lineup on Friday. This shuffles the lineup up a bit but Hoskins is a key part of this lineup that will remain in the 2 hole. He is hitting .304 with 7HRs and a 1.013OPS against LHPs this season. Madison Bumgarner continues to pitch but has lost a lot of his talent. His ERA sits at 4.53 but his xERA is at 5.29 indicating that he actually should be performing worse than he already has been. Bumgarner has allowed 17 home runs to RHBs this season. He ranks in the 54th percentile in walks so that is not a huge issue. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper hitting behind Hoskins are formidable enough for teams to pitch to Hoskins. The one downside is Hoskins has a -3 run value against MadBum’s most used pitch, the cutter. However, Hoskins is either neutral or positive against every other pitch. Bumgarner’s cutter has allowed a +4 to hitters so it has not been a good pitch for him to throw.
Ian Happ O 5.5fpt
CHC @ TOR
Happ hits 2, 3, or 4. Jose Berrios has been a mixed bag all season long. He has a good chase rate ranked in the 87th percentile but the rest of his numbers are nowhere near as good. Happ’s chase rate ranks in the 60th percentile which should allow him to put the ball in play in this spot. Happ’s strikeouts come from swings and misses but Berrios only ranks in the 21st percentile in whiff rate. This play is a bit similar to Hoskins in that Happ does not hit the curve well. Berrios uses the curve the 2nd most against LHBs. However, Happ has a positive run value against every other pitch that Berrios throws. Berrios has significant splits as he has allowed 18 home runs to LHBs this season. Happ has a lot more power when he hits from the left side. Since his return, Nick Madrigal has been getting on base. This allows Happ to have some RBI opportunities hitting after him and likely Willson Contreras.
Just missed the cut: Gonsolin U 37.5fpt, Contreras O 5.5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
Now for the bonus… If you are new to PrizePicks, they will match your 1st deposit up to $100! You double your money and get a free month of a DFS Army VIP subscription too!
DFS Army Free Month Offer Here
