Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jul 1, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) reacts to his single against the Los Angeles Angels in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Tucker O 6.5fpt
HOU vs BOS
The Astros will take on the Red Sox in this one. Kutter Crawford has been a fine pitcher but does struggle against LHBs. He is allowing a .365 wOBA, .280 ISO, and 50.9% flyball rate to lefties this season. Crawford throws primarily a fastball, cutter, and curve to lefties. Tucker hits the fastball and curve extremely well, recording a 12 and 6 run value against those pitchers according to Baseball Savant. In addition to this hitting spot, he is in a much better stolen base situation. The Red Sox traded away catcher Christian Vazquez yesterday to the Astros. Vazquez is one of the better defensive catchers in today’s game ranking 17th in pop time at 1.94 sec. They started Kevin Plawecki on Monday who ranks in the 1st percentile in pop time (2.11). Boston did acquire Reese McGuire but he is no Vazquez. They also called up Ronaldo Hernandez who has a good arm but would be making his major league debut. Tucker leads the Astros with 16 steals this season.
Ramon Laureano O 4.5fpt
OAK @ LAA
Laureano is on the trade block. The pitcher he will be facing, Noah Syndergaard is also a trade candidate. If Syndergaard is scratched, this play will probably be worse. Syndergaard is not the same pitcher he once was with the Mets. He continues to struggle against baserunners but he has lost his strikeout stuff. Thor’s K rate is down to 18.9% this season which is important as it decreases the chances that Laureano goes down swinging. The one issue here is going to be the slider. Laureano has a -6 run value but Syndergaard’s slider is not good. His best pitch has been the sinker which Laureano has a +3 run value on it. This line is just too low for Laureano. It indicates Oakland is facing an ace but Thor just is not one. Laureano missed the first month of the season but still has 10 stolen bases. He can easily hit the over with the bat or his legs. The Angels backstops and bullpen are fairly weak in the event that Laureano cannot get it done versus Syndergaard.
Noah Syndergaard U 34.5fpt / U 5.5k
LAA vs OAK
All that above from the Laureano section applies here as well. Syndergaard is in the bottom half of a majority of pitching metrics. He is headed for negative regression as indicated by higher xWOBA and xERA. This Athletics team is not good. It does feel like this line has been over adjusted for this matchup. Oakland has put up at least 5 runs in a lot of their recent games. Though they might not have great hitters, they are tough to strike out. Vimael Machin, Tony Kemp, and Elvis Andrus all have 16% or lower K rates vs RHPs. Syndergaard struggles with the pitch count. He has several starts where he goes less than the 6 innings to qualify for the quality start. Cole Irvin is one of the Athletics” better pitchers so a win is not a guarantee for Thor. This line probably should be more in the high 20s.
Kevin Gausman O 91.5 pitches thrown
TOR @ TB
Gausman is coming off of a poor start against St. Louis where he gave up 5ER and only got through 4.2IP on 86 pitches. I expect a better outing today against Tampa Bay. The Rays continue to deal with injuries. This is a very high strikeout lineup. Gausman has some of the best swing and miss stuff in the majors. If he has a good start, he should hit around 100 pitches. Nearly all of his starts that he went under 91.5 have been because of poor performances or injury. The last time he took on this Rays team, he got hurt. Wander Franco lined one back which ended Gausman’s day at only 42 pitches. Gausman threw 108 pitches two starts ago which indicates he is fully capable of going over 100 if needed.
Taylor Ward O 5.5fpt
LAA vs OAK
Even though the Angels are having a disappointing season, they are a much better team when playing at home. Ward should be hitting right behind Shohei Ohtani. In addition, Luis Rengifo is red hot right now, who should hit behind Ward. This gives Ward the best possible run and RBI opportunities while Mike Trout is out. Cole Irvin has made some solid starts. However, he looks to be a major negative regression candidate. He pitches in a very pitcher-friendly park. Just looking at ERA, it is 1.73 at home and 4.79 on the road. His weakness has always been RHBs. Ward is batting .303 against lefties this season. His hitting stats are much better at home. Ward has positive run values for all four of Irvin’s primary pitches against RHBs: fastball, changeup, sinker, curve. This line should be a bit higher as Irvin just is not the caliber of pitcher that warrants this line.
Just missed the cut: Yordan O 1.5tb, Arraez O 1.5tb, Rengifo O 5.5fpt, R Greene O 5.5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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