UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

Four Favorite Fighters

• Lewis $8000
• Pavlovich $8200
• Moreno $8900
• Pantoja $8700

Two Dogs Worth A Second Look

• Pena $7000
• Smith $6800

Parlay of The Week:

• Semelesberger -155
• Morales -600
• Alves +160
• Pantoja -190

+661 

Total: +1583

UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

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Nunes $9200 Vs. Pena $7000

The line to Impact Lean: Under 2.5 -110

This fight should be absolute chaos as these girls went off in their last fight!! I am still trying to fathom how a fighter who legitimately won is priced down with fighters with a limited chance to win. Pena is $7000 at 5 Rd. Fight against an opponent that she has already beat. I get why the books think Nunes should be the favorite, but a -275 M/L seems a bit steep. I believe in chasing value more than trying to be an oracle and call every fight correct because, let’s face it, if we could do that, everyone would be tied for first every week.

On the other hand, Nunes is +300 to get a KO/TKO/DQ and could come out on fire, accumulating volume and points before hitting that +300 KO/TKO/DQ. That said, I will keep a close eye on the ownership as I can see myself elevating Nunes if the field jumps on the Pena value. For DFS, I would rather have the less owned fighter in this fight. This fight will be in EVERY lineup I build, and I will more than likely set a 5-8% stack rule in the Domination Station. 

UFC 277 Pick: Pena $7000

UFC 277 Betting: Fading the fight as a bet is more likely, but may get a little action in the over 2.5 at -115. 

UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

Lewis $8000 Vs. Pavlovich $8200

The line to Impact Lean: Under 1.5 -155

As you will see, I put both fighters down under my four favorite fighters list because I know this fight is hitting, given the price of both fighters. Both fighters are K/O guys, and the under is set at 1.5. With both fighters being priced below $8500, there is just too much value here not to go all in.

Derrick Lewis may be declining, but he has proven he will put your lights out if he gets a clean shot, and it does not matter who you are. Gayne was able to finish him in R3, but Gayne is something special, and I don’t think Pavlovich is proven enough to say that is what he will do.

I think Pavlovich wins this fight and shows everyone he is a legitimate rising star; since my first video, the line has moved from -115 to -155 in favor of Pavlovich. That being said, I think he gets it done here and puts Lewis down early, hitting the KO/TKO/DQ prop of -105

UFC 277 Pick: Pavlovich $8200

UFC 277 Betting: Pavlovich +200 Rd 1 KO/TKO/DQ

Smith $6800 Vs. $9400

Line to Impact Lean: Under 2.5 +130

WOOF WOOF!!!

I think Smith deserves more respect than an M/L of +410. The guys on the Dog or Pass podcast made great points regarding the ring IQ of Smith and how this could give him an edge against a talented but sometimes wreckless Ankalaev. I think it is fair that he is the favorite, but the line is set to where Smith has no shot, which I am not buying into.

Smith is my dog shot of the week, but I will be all over both fighters for DFS purposes as I could see both paying off. We could have a Mokaev situation where Ankalaev’s price scares people off, and I am here for leverage!!! As much of a wild man Ankalaev is, he could come in and hit the KO/TKO/DQ of +175 and accumulate scoring before doing so. Also, he is -105 to get a decision with which he could score well for Draftkings. Therefore, both fighters will be elevated as I think this fight has much fantasy potential.

I predict that Smith uses his brains to let Ankalaev gas himself out in Rd 1 and gets a finish in RD. 2. Big Marley said, “That’s ballsy, but I don’t hate it.” I’ll take an I don’t hate it from a sharp like him and run with it. So I will have a little money on the +1100 RD 2 KO/TKO/DQ for Smith.

UFC London Pick: Smith $6800

UFC 277 Betting: Smith +1100 RD 2 KO/TKO/DQ

FIGHT to FADE

Kim $7900 Vs. Edwards $8300

This fight is not exciting for DFS, but I may have a little Kim +115 M/L to chase the betting value. However, regardless of who wins, I do not see them scoring well as I think this will make a greasy decision.

UFC 277: FADE!!! 

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UFC 277: Betting & DraftKings Picks Preview

Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

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Twitter: @therealgc9

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