MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Fanduel and DraftKings Tuesday, July 12th, 2022 MAIN SLATE

This is the last week before the MLB All-Star Break! Let’s finish the first half strong!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

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Gerrit Cole vs CIN

Cole should garner a bunch of ownership in this start here tonight against the Reds. CIN has been a little better offensively of late, but over the last 2 weeks, they are striking out 31% of the time against RHP. Cole struggled against Boston in his last start, but still managed to throw 6 innings. This matchup is much easier than that one and he should be able to get 6+ innings with 7+ strikeouts. The Reds roster is just 16-68 off Cole with a 29.4% strikeout rate. Cole has been better at home this season too, limiting hitter to under a .200 batting average with well over a strikeout per inning. ALL FORMATS

Spencer Strider vs NYM

Tough matchup again for Stdier, but last time out against the Cards he was able to have another superb outing, striking out 12 Cards over 6 innings. The Mets had a nice game last night against Fried, but I do think Strider can continue his success of late. He has over 10 K’s in 3 of his last 5 starts and has allowed more than 2 ER in just 1 of his last 6 starts. The strikeout ability is there for him even against a Mets team striking out just 16.8% of the time to RHP. Strider has some electric stuff up on the mound. GPP

Logan Webb vs ARI

What to do about Arizona. They used to be a team that struck out a ton, but right now they are striking out the fewest amount of times against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Webb has been really good at home this year though, not allowing a HR on the season at home and has a 2.63 ERA in 9 starts. His strikeouts are down this year, but he’s still been pitching fairly well for the Giants this year. Last time out he went 8 innings and allowed just 1 run against the Padres and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 6 straight starts. ALL FORMATS

Chris Sale @ TBR

Sale is making his season debut here after missing all of the season so far. In reading reports, Cora expects to have him limited around 85 pitches, but Cora did say he could be a little more aggressive with Sale. Even if he is limited to just 85 pitches, he can still do a ton of damage against this Rays offense. Tampa Bay comes into this game with a 29.8% strikeout rate against LHP over the last 2 weeks with an ISO of just .126. If Sale is anything like his old self, we could see 5 innings with a ton of strikeouts here. I won’t be trusting him in cash games because of the limits and his command issues in his rehab starts, but the strikeouts will be there for him and he does have upside even on a limited pitch count. GPP

Luis Garcia @ LAA

The Angels are still a dumpster fire of a lineup right now. Over their last 2 weeks against RHP, they are striking out the most in baseball at 31.7% and have the worst batting average, sitting at .184. Garcia struggled in his last start against the Royals but was still able to get the win and strike out 7 hitters in 6.1 innings. He’s made just 1 start against the Angels this year back in Aptril and he did strike out 7 in 5.2 innings. My biggest worry is that he only has 5 QS in 15 starts on the season, but this matchup against the Angels isn’t necessarily a bad one. ALL FORMATS

Chris Flexen @ WSH

Flexen hasn’t been awful of late. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in 7 straight starts, but he’s a guy that doesn’t normally rack up a ton of strikeouts. Washington doesn’t strike out a ton either, so don’t expect a lot here from Flexen. He has been serviceable for the Mariners of late though and has won 3 straight starts. GPP

Corey Kluber vs BOS

Looks like Devers is going to be back for the Red Sox tonight after missing some time. Kluber has had some success against Boston over his career and he did just win his last start against them, throwing 6 innings and striking out 5 hitters. He’s been pretty good at home, striking out a hitter per inning and doesn’t allow many free passes. I do have some concerns here for Kluber, but if he can keep the ball on the ground here, he could have another good start. GPP

Jordan Lyles @ CHC

The home/road splits for Lyles aren’t great here, and that is my biggest concern against the Cubs tonight. He has been good of late for the Orioles though. He has thrown at least 6 innings in 4 straight starts and has recorded 3 of 4 QS. The Cubs come into this game with a 24% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks, which is the 4th highest in the league. They still have a good amount of power and Lyles isn’t a trustworthy option, but I see some upside coming off a good start against the Angels last time out. GPP

Josiah Gray vs SEA

Gray is another guy who has some series home/road splits on the season. He’s been MUCH worst at home this season, but the matchup intrigues me. Over his last 6 starts, he has 4 quality starts and has been getting a decent amount of strikeouts. At home, he has struggled more with the home run ball. Seattle’s offense outside of a few guys doesn’t typically worry me here. GPP

 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1.  Gerrit Cole
2. Luis Garcia
3. Logan Webb
4. Chris Sale
5. Spencer Strider
6. Josiah Gray
7. Chris Flexen
8. Jordan Lyles
9. Corey Kluber

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1. New York Yankees
2. San Deigo Padres
3. Minnesota Twins
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Toronto Blue Jays

 

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Aaron Judge

Ashcraft is more of a reverse splits pitcher so far this year, allowing a .892 OPS against RHB and has allowed 4 of his 5 HR to righties. He also has really struggled on the road this year with an ERA just under 7. Love the Yankees upside tonight after losing 2 tough games in Boston.

 

 

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