Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We’re back to a full day of games today, including a 13-game main slate (complete with a Coors game). We have a good variety of pitching available as well, so there will be plenty of ways to go today. Let’s take a look and see what we can find!
A look at pitchers
As previously mentioned, we have a good range of pitching options today, including studs and gas cans alike. McClanahan tops the carnage charts today (though that’s probably not too surprising), but he does have some company up top. Our worst offenders also happen to be at chalky Coors, so we may some unavoidable chalk coming from there. There are some in spots that are almost as bad though, so there will be at least some good places to pivot to. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early games
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
We’ll kick things off with one of our two early games. Wilson and the Pirates will take on Thompson and the Cubs here, and at first glance I’m not really loving anything here. Maybe they’ll prove me wrong, but we’ll see.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Cruz
GPP note – Thompson has been fairly stingy to both sides of the plate so I can’t say I love these guys. Cruz looks pretty decent, though.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Contreras
GPP note – Traditional splits would be the way to go here, though not many of these bats are hitting righties all that well right now. I can’t say I’m overly excited about these bats, either.
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Next up is our other early game, this one with Lopez and the Marlins taking on Greene and the Reds. The Marlins excite me about as much as the previous two teams do, but the Reds do at least look like they could do some damage here. I’m guessing they’ll be the source of most of the early-day scoring, but these showdown games can be a volatile mess, so maybe some bold pivots will win the day.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Wendle
GPP note – Traditional splits are the way to go here too, but like the previous two teams, these guys just aren’t popping off the page.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Moustakas, Pham/Drury, India
GPP note – These bats have the best recent numbers in their matchup, so they may just have to carry this early slate. If you’re playing it, you’ll probably have to rely on them. If that doesn’t sit well with you, you might just want to wait for the main slate!
Main slate
Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Moving on to the main slate, we’ll start with McClanahan and the Rays taking on Watkins and the Orioles. This one looks like the Rays’ game to lose, so I don’t think we’ll see too many surprises here. I don’t know that it’ll get out of control, but their offense should be able to handle the Baltimore arms today.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena, Phillips
GPP note – An okay matchup – not the worst, but not the best. We have a couple of bats that are hitting for power against righties, but otherwise it’s a bit of a shot in the dark.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Santander, Mateo
GPP note – A bad matchup against McClanahan, we might get lucky with the two bats above, but otherwise, I’d rather look elsewhere today.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Next up we have Strider and the Braves taking on Nola and the Phillies. I think we’ll get another not-so-crazy game here, but I have a feeling we’ll get 2-3 bats that will put up some decent numbers. Feel free to go here for some one-offs or mini-stacks to complement your chalkier stacks.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 3.5 star plays – Acuna, Riley/Olson/Harris
GPP note – Not a great matchup here either, but there are at least some bats here that can hit for power. It’s not a terrible idea to grab some one-offs or mini-stacks here just in case.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 3.5 star plays – Schwarber/Hoskins/Castellanos, Realmuto
GPP note – Another tough matchup, it’s the same story as above. However, Strider does allow a lot more power to righties than he does lefties, so consider taking advantage of that.
St Louis Cardinals at Toronto Blue Jays
Pallante and the Cardinals take on Berrios and the Blue Jays next, and seeing that two of St Louis’ biggest bats won’t be attending, I think the home team will run away with these next two games. They may still put up some fight, but I don’t think it’ll be enough.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 3.5 star plays – Gorman, Pujols
GPP note – No Goldschmidt/Arenado means the other bats will need to make up for them (hey, it worked for KC). Gorman and Pujols look to be the best options at first glance.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Springer, Chapman
GPP note – A decent matchup for these bats, Pallante allows equal power to both sides, though a bit more x/wOBA to righties than to lefties. That bodes well for this team, so don’t be shy.
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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Next up we have McCarty, Shaw, and the Guardians’ bullpen taking on Winckowski and the Red Sox. This one looks a little messy to navigate, and probably won’t have a ton of fantasy goodness to make up for it, but alas, we should at least dig around to see what we can find.
Guardians 5 star plays – Ramirez
Guardians 4 star plays – Naylor, Reyes
GPP note – A favorable matchup for the lefties, this should be a decent spot to grab some bats, but I don’t know if huge stacks will be the answer.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Bogaerts/Martinez
GPP note – Mostly the same as above. This looks to be a bullpen game, so it’s hard telling what we’ll get, but a few bats sprinkled around wouldn’t be a bad idea.
San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers
Clevinger and the Padres are set to take on Hill and the Tigers next, and this one looks like an easy one for the Padres – at least by volatile baseball standards. This one reminds me a bit of the Tampa Bay/Baltimore game, though I think the Tigers will have a slightly better chance against their opponent.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Cronenworth, Voit/Hosmer
GPP note – This is a pretty favorable matchup for the Padres, and seeing as Hill allows plenty of power to both sides of the plate, you can mix and match any bats you desire.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Candelario
GPP note – Not a great matchup here, but Clevinger does allow some decent power to lefties, so you could try your luck there.
New York Yankees at New York Mets
We have our subway series game up next, with Montgomery and the Yankees taking on Walker and the Mets. Matchup against matchup, the Yankees have the advantage with the bats while the Mets have the advantage with the pitching, so it’ll be interesting to see who prevails here. Either way, we should have some good fantasy production here somewhere, so be sure you’ve got your share of exposure.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Carpenter/Rizzo/Hicks
GPP note – Walker has been stingy, but these bats can hit righties for a ton. I don’t know if hedging is the answer due to Walker’s average-ish strikeout rate, but having some exposure here would be a good idea.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
GPP note – An okay, average matchup, Montgomery does allow slightly above average power to righties, so you could grab a bat or two from that side.
Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers
Moving on we get Bundy and the Twins taking on Small and the Brewers. There’s plenty of volatility in this one, though in the end I think the home team will take the W. They look to have the upper hand with their matchup, but they may need to take advantage of it, because I could see either offense putting up some runs here.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Urshela
GPP note – There’s no telling what we’ll get against Small and/or the bullpen, but throwing stacks against a pitcher in this situation (a lower-tier pitcher with less than 3 innings on the year) is never a terrible idea.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich/Tellez, Adames/Renfroe/McCutchen
GPP note – Bundy can be hit-or-miss, but I think we’ll get a few good hits here. Traditional splits are in the more favorable matchup, though the righties on this team are hitting righties for more power, so get creative if you go here.
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Suarez and the Angels taking on Zerpa and my Royals. The Angels will be looking for revenge after yesterday’s thrashing (that doesn’t happen very often, so yes I had to rub it in), but seeing that both offenses will be in decent spots here, we could see a little bit of ping pong action here.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani, Marsh
GPP note – I have no idea what we’ll get from Zerpa, but it probably won’t be much. These bats aren’t smashing lefties, but they need a pick-me-up, so perhaps they’ll find one at the K.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Witt, Merrifield/Dozier
GPP note – I don’t think they’ll score 7 runs again, but they’ll have a chance to do some damage, so some light/medium stacks couldn’t hurt.
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Chicago White Sox at Colorado Rockies
We have our Coors game up next, with Kopech and the White Sox taking on Marquez and the Rockies. I don’t think there’s anything too surprising here, so you’ll want to get creative to differ from the field.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Vaughn, Abreu/Engel
GPP note – It’s a Coors game, so you know the drill. Marquez does at least know how to pitch here and has the occasional big outing, so you could always hedge.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/Bryant, Joe
GPP note – Same as above. Lefties have the advantage, but both sides of the plate are hitting Kopech for power, so go any which way you desire.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our late games, starting with Garcia and the Astros taking on Montas and the Athletics. We get two solid pitchers here, though the offenses are far from equal, so the likely outcome is that the Astros walk away with the win here. However, it could be a slim margin of victory if both pitchers do what they’re capable of doing.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 3.5 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker, Altuve/Bregman
GPP note – Montas is a tough target but has a lot of LvR xwOBA against him lately. You could always try to run a few lefties against him to see if that pans out as anything useful, as these are the Astros after all.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Pinder
GPP note – Not a great matchup here either, but Garcia is allowing a decent amount to lefties, so you can try some bats against him here as well. They certainly aren’t as potent as the Houston ones are, but they won’t see much ownership, either.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Next up we have Rodon and the Giants taking on Gilbert and the Diamondbacks. This one looks like another lopsided game, with the Giants having a measurable advantage over the home team. This is another one where I don’t think we’ll see too many surprises.
Giants 5 star plays – Yastrzemski
Giants 4 star plays – Flores/Slater, Estrada/Ruf
GPP note – This is a pretty good spot for these bats, especially the lefties (more power has been given up to them from Gilbert). His low ~7% strikeout rate makes any bat here appealing though, so have at it!
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 3.5 star plays – Marte/Kelly/Luplow/Varsho
GPP note – Generally not a great pitcher to attack, there are at least a few Arizona bats that are hitting lefties well, so you could try your luck with some mini-stacks.
Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers
Next up we have Gray and the Nationals taking on White and the Dodgers. Similar to the New York game, we have one team with a pitching advantage (Washington) going up against a team with the offensive advantage (Los Angeles), so it’ll be interesting to see which side prevails. If the Washington bats can do some damage and Gray comes out with a solid performance, perhaps they could upset Vegas and the rest of the baseball world.
Nationals 5 star plays – Soto
Nationals 4 star plays – Bell
GPP note – A decent matchup for the lefties, White’s strikeout rate is below average and he’s allowing decent power to lefties, so you can attack him there with a bat or two (or three).
Dodgers 4.5 star plays – Freeman
Dodgers 3.5 star plays – Betts/Turner/Turner, Lux
GPP note – Gray is coming into this one with a healthy strikeout rate, but also a decent amount of power hit against him from both sides of the plate. That makes this a good place to hedge, should you enjoy looking for such spots.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
And finally, we’ll end the day with Dunning and the Rangers going up against Kirby and the Mariners. Though neither pitcher is terrible, I do think both offenses have a good chance of doing some damage, so I could see this one turning into sort of a “late night hammer” type of a game. Vegas gave them an 8.0 IRT to start with, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that creep up a little as the day goes on.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Semien, Taveras
GPP note – An above-average matchup for lefties and righties alike, Kirby tends to give up about equal contact and power to both sides, so you can attack him from either angle here.
Mariners 5 star plays – Rodriguez
Mariners 4 star plays – Santana/France, Raleigh/Winker
GPP note – Same idea as above but even better numbers given up by Dunning. I could see some back and forth action here, so don’t be afraid to run some lineups with heavy exposure to this one.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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