Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/12:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Spencer Strider
- Dylan Cease
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-155)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Chris Stratton
Marlins – Daniel Castano
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a very underwhelming match-up with the Pirates looking at a potential bullpen game. I think we can use bats as one-offs but I am not looking to get stacks of either side nor am I looking to use pitchers from this one.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Diego Castillo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan De La Cruz, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-165)
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Braves – Spencer Strider
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Normally I like to get myself a few shares of Peterson but I don’t think that’s going to happen today. I want the Braves’ side of this match-up. Riley is absolutely red-hot at the plate and I love Strider’s upside. I know the Mets are a very dangerous team and Strider isn’t safe but all I want is the upside in my GPP builds.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, William Contreras
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-140) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Mitch White
Cardinals – Matthew Liberatore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Liberatore is yet to allow a run at home in his MLB career but that will come to an end tonight. I know the Dodgers struggled against LHPs early in the season but that has started to come around. The overall lineup of the Cardinals is struggling a ton right now so White might be a cheap enough SP2 tonight.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .068 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-130) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Luis Garcia
Angels – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros are without Alvarez which hurts the lineup quite a bit but Aledmys Diaz has provided some power replacement. On the surface, I feel like the Astros are in a great spot but I just have a feeling we see some life from the Angels tonight. The Angels’ lineup has a LOT of plus BvP on their side tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jake Meyers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .082 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am very interested in seeing what Sale has in his return. He gets a great spot to make his return to the bigs as the Rays lineup should feature 4 or 5 guys hitting about .220 and under (3-4 under .200 most likely). I think the Red Sox can get to Kluber some but I don’t think it’s enough to want to fully stack them.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-130)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Beau Brieske
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually could see this game putting up double digits tonight. I know the Tigers haven’t been very powerful but there’s some upside against Bubic. The Royals have a few guys that can put up big games against Brieske but they also have a pretty blah lineup, everall.
DET 5-star plays: Willi Castro
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins (-135)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Jason Alexander
Twins – Josh Winder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Minnesota comes in swinging the bats pretty well and Alexander has been beaten up by LHBs from a power perspective and given up plenty of hits to RHBs. Winder is a reverse splits guy which can help him against MIL’s top hitters but the lineup will probably have 5 or so RHBs.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Keston Hiura
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Alex Kirilloff
GPP Note: Team ISO of .278 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago Cubs (-120)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Both pitchers are capable of being strong plays but with a total at 9, I have to imagine the weather is better for hitters than the pitchers. I hope Contreras returns to the lineup as he has hit Lyles really well. If I am going to attack Sampson with a stack, I would prefer to use the BAL LHBs.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
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Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-160) – Game 1
Pitchers:
White Sox – Davis Martin
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get another doubleheader today and it’s one where each team has their ace going in one of the games. If I had to bet, it’d be on the Guardians taking game 1 with the White Sox taking down game 2. I think there are plus hitter spots in each game, even against the aces but I don’t really love the idea of stacking hitters.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 2
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Guardians – Konner Pilkington
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We get another doubleheader today and it’s one where each team has their ace going in one of the games. If I had to bet, it’d be on the Guardians taking game 1 with the White Sox taking down game 2. I think there are plus hitter spots in each game, even against the aces but I don’t really love the idea of stacking hitters. Cease should be extremely popular while a few CWS bats should be in plus spots for this game on the DK main slate.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Nolan Jones
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Arizona D’Backs @ San Francisco Giants (-220)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Dallas Keuchel
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Webb has continued his strong performances at home and while he hasn’t been as elite as last year, he gets a very beneficial match-up. I love attacking Keuchel but that’s tough with the Giants. There will be a couple of Giants that I really fall in love with as the day goes on (Slater, for example) but I don’t know if I will get to a full 5-man stack for DK purposes.
ARI 5-star plays: Josh Rojas
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees (-305)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. When you look at Ashcraft’s numbers you realize one thing, that he could be in a lot of trouble with his reverse splits against the RH power of the Yankees. Cole is a massive favorite and for great reason. A few of the CIN bats have been swinging it well but it’s tough to trust those recent numbers when going against an elite SP. Pham has hit Cole really well in his career.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .258 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ Texas Rangers (-170)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think the Rangers will be somewhat popular and I understand why. Seager and Taveras are red hot at the plate while Lowe, Garcia, and Semien have been performing really well. I like to pick on Otto but the A’s don’t really have a lineup that’s worth stacking right now. I will gladly take the upside of Laureano as a one-off tonight.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Leody Taveras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-135) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Another Coors game on the main slate with an SP that has been getting smacked around (Gomber). I hope Kim is in the lineup as he has hit Gomber really well while I think Machado and Cronenworth are in great spots. I think that Clevinger could be a sneaky GPP play as the Rockies bats have NOT had any success against him in their careers. If Bryant were to magically return to from the paternity list, he would be in play.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Washington Nationals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I actually think Josiah Gray is a very interesting GPP option but he gives me a LOT of HRs (18 on the year). I think Santana and Crawford are the best ways to attack him while J-Rod is always in play with his power/speed combo. Flexen’s reverse splits should help him out in this game and his main concern is a suddenly hot Juan Soto. Since I started this article, the total for this game has come down to 9.
SEA 5-star plays: JP Crawford
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Phillies – Andrew Bellatti (opener)
Jays – Jose Berrios or Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
We are still waiting on Vegas information. We get an opener situation with the Phillies and an unknown starter for the Blue Jays (both possible SPs are very worthy GPP plays). As I have stated many times, it’s really tough to stack against an opener situation because managers can go many different ways after the 1-2 innings of action. I think the Blue Jays wake up a little bit in this series but I’m just not sure who will do the damage right now.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Manny Machado, Padres
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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