Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jul 5, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Max Scherzer (21) pitches during the second inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
Max Scherzer O 90.5pt
NYM @ ATL
Scherzer looked like his usual self in hist first start after about a month and a half. His limit heading into the game was 6 innings or 90 pitches, whichever hit first. Scherzer went 6 innings on 79 pitches. If he was not this efficient, he would have hit that 90 pitch mark. Furthermore, if he hit 90 pitches, we would not have this line today. Restrictions are always increased as the days go on. Scherzer is a veteran. It is possible he will not even have any restrictions today. At the very least, his cap should not be 90 pitches again. We need to check before the game if the manager mentions anything. Logically, Scherzer should be able to go over 90 pitches for this start. Atlanta is a great team so this matchup will not be as easy as Cincinnati last start. In the case, it is again an innings limit, the Braves should make Scherzer less efficient and run that pitch count up.
Padres vs Rockies YRFI O 0.5 1st inning runs
SD @ COL
It is time for another Coors Field series. San Diego is sending Sean Manaea to the mound. He is a good pitcher but pretty much every pitcher struggles playing in Colorado. The Rockies are a much better hitting team at home and are good against LHPs this season. Colorado has a 119 wRC+ at home, ranked 12th in the league this season against LHPs. Manaea has struggled against RHBs this season. He is a two-pitch pitcher to each side of the plate. He throws a sinker and changeup to righties. Both of these pitches hold positive run values which is not good if you are the pitcher. Colorado’s lineup is stacked with right-handed bats with the return of Kris Bryant. On the other side, Jose Urena is a worse pitcher than Manaea. He has a 8.9% k rate, 12.9% bb rate, and 6.18 xERA this season. These are not good numbers when you have to pitch in Coors. Both of these offenses are set up very well tonight.
Brayan Bello U 24.5fpt
BOS @ TB
Bello cruised through the minors to earn this promotion. His first start was against this same Rays team. He went 4IP, gave up 4ER, walked 3, and struck out 2. Usually, the hitting side gets the advantage when they face the same pitcher again. Tampa Bay is dealing with some injuries so Bello should be able to strike out more than just 2 batters this time. However, the Rays do walk. They also will be at home. Rookie player tend to play better at home. Bello should have a short leash again. This makes it difficult for him to earn the quality start and win. Tampa Bay is very sharp when it comes to scouting and the work before the game. This 24.5 number seems a bit too high for someone making his second career start.
Andrew Benintendi G1 O 7fpt / Bobby Witt Jr. G1 O 7fpt
KC vs DET
These two teams will be playing a doubleheader today. Whit Merrifield hurt his toe on Sunday. This means the Royals will have a new lineup. Bobby Witt Jr. could become the leadoff man. My guess is they move someone like Nicky Lopez to the spot. I am targeting Witt and Benintendi for game 1 against Michael Pineda. The lines are a little lower compared to game 2 versus Alex Faedo. Pineda has struggled against LHBs this season. Every single stat on Pineda’s baseball savant page except walks is under the 10th percentile. He throws three pitches, mainly two to each side. To lefties, he throws a fastball and changeup. Benintendi is batting .339 against RHPs this season and has great career numbers against both those pitch types. Pineda allows stolen bases. Tucker Barnhart has an average pop time. This puts Witt, who ranks in the 100th percentile in sprint speed in a terrific stolen base spot.
Miles Mikolas O 25.5fpt
STL vs PHI
Mikolas is a good pitcher. This is actually a good matchup against the Phillies. They are dealing with injuries most notably, Bryce Harper. In the last month, the Phillies have a 60 wRC+ against RHPs on the road. They only have a 19.4% strikeout rate but Mikolas does not rely on strikeouts anyway. He has a low walk rate and limits hard contact. This allows him to go deep into games and earn quality starts. Aaron Nola is on the other side which makes it tough to earn the win. It still is not out of the question though. However, Mikolas can hit over 25.5 without the win. This line seems to already have factored in the Nola matchup. The weather is not good for pitching as it will be 97 degrees with 6mph winds blowing out. Mikolas will be pitching at home though against a team that has been struggling against righties on the road.
Just missed the cut: Jon Berti O 0.5r+rbi, Eric Hosmer O 1.5h+bb, Alex Cobb O 4.5k, Merrill Kelly O 93.5pt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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