Vegas 57 UFC DraftKings Picks/Preview

Vegas 57 UFC DraftKings Picks/Preview

Vegas 57 UFC DraftKings Picks/Preview will cover each fight from a DraftKings DFS perspective. There are a lot of good fights on this card, including the main event (Tsarukyan  Vs. Gamrot). Therefore, we will individually go through each match and outline how they can play out, specifically regarding taking down DraftKings DFS Tournaments.

Turd of the Week

Moises ($9,000) Vs. Giagos ($7,200)

Moises is my least favorite of the high-priced fighters as he has not scored 100 ftpts since 2019! Also, he has lost two of his last four, including getting finished in RD 1 by Tsarukyan.

However, I don’t see Giagos landing the upset here as he is nothing to write home about himself and is the rightful dog. I remind those reading that DFS UFC is about scoring potential just as much as it is getting the fights correct.

With Moises at 9k, I am not interested as he has only scored 51.2, 60.3, and 70.4 in his last three wins. That said, this will be my fight fade for the week.

Vegas 57 Pick: Moises

Four Favorite Fighters

• Gamrot ($7,100)
• Rakhmonov ($9,300)
• Curtis ($8,600)
• Nurmagomedov ($9,500)

 

Vegas 57 DFS Picks/Preview

Tsarukyan ($9,100) Vs. Gamrot ($7,100)

This is an excellent main event! Both fighters are impressive, both guys can go the distance, & both guys can land a big finish. I am considering going 60/40 in 200, with 60% being Gamrot. Tsarukyan looked impressive as he was able to go the distance against a potential generational talent in Islam Machachev and has not lost since.

However, I don’t think he is 3 to 1 odds better than Gamrot. Do I believe he has a higher probability of winning? Yes, but I would instead get in more on the savings in this one as he is a 2k discount from the favorite.

Therefore, I am leaning towards getting more of the dog in this, but I know I will be all in on the fight related to GPP contests.

Vegas 57 Pick: Gamrot 

Magny ($6,900) Vs. Rakhmonov ($9,300)

Rakhmonov has averaged 105 ftpts over his last three wins, all by finish and only one making it out of round one. I think Magny is a competitive opponent and could give Rakhomonov some problems, but I believe Rakhmonov is the better fighter and wins four out of the five times.

Therefore, although I am picking Rakmonov, I plan to get some of Magny in the case of an upset. However, I will be overweight on Rakhmonov, and he could be my highest owned, depending on ownership projections.

Vegas 57 Pick: Rakhmonov 

Parisian ($7,800) Vs. Baudot ($8,400)

I am confused about how this would be the third to last fight with so many other tough battles on the card. Neither fighter is excellent. However, Perisian was on a six-fight winning streak before losing two of three (Porter Dec., Mayes Submission). At dog money, I will get more of him as I think he could hit the +350 win by KO/TKO/DQ.

*I won’t fade Baudot as he has a history of landing some R1 finishes, which could pay well at $8,400.

While picking Parisian, I usually split the ownership on fights like this as it could go either way with these two powdered donuts. I will try to get at least field ownership of both fighters across multiple entries.

Vegas 57 Pick: Parisian

Maness ($6,700) Vs. Nurmagomedov ($9,500)

Nurmagomedov is +100 to land a submission and -150 to win by either a KO or submission. Given that information, I will have “Cousin Umar” as a high-owned play.

Additionally, I will wait to see ownership projections, but I could see him being my highest-owned fighter on the card.  I believe Nurmagomedov is hands-down better in every area of the fight.

Vegas 57 Pick: Nurmagomedov

Curtis ($8,600) Vs. Vieira ($7,600)

All in on this fight, and I wanted to include Geek’s take on this that can be found in our Cheat Sheets:

This fight probably plays out one of two ways. Either Vieira gets an early submission win, or Curtis gets a finish along the way. Either option scores well. This is an all-in situation for me. I favor Curtis significantly. He has a solid take-down defense, and I think he can do enough to outlast Vieira’s gas tank. His win against Stolzfus hasn’t aged well at all.

I like Curtis to land the KO/TKO at -105. However, Viereira can win here, so I will go all-in on to ensure I have at least 10% above the projected field ownership for Viereira.

Vegas 57 Pick: Curtis

Ulberg ($8,300) Vs.  Nchukwi ($7,900)

Both fighters are +200 to get a KO/TKO; this will be another fight I get a lot of. I don’t think it will be all in, but I want a lot of both fighters as I could see this being another high scorer per price point. Also, the under 2.5 is -145, which tells me the books believe in a finish.

Therefore, I will be elevating the ownership of both fighters at least 5% above field projections. In terms of picks, I don’t think Ulberg has fought that great of people and could get exposed by Nchukwi, who has four finishes in his last six wins. Dog or pass.

Vegas 57 Pick: Nchukwi

Nuerdanbieke ($7,300) Vs. Brown ($8,900)

Over 2.5 is -190, which goes to Brown’s advantage as he can generate some takedowns and win a decision here. If the fight goes to the ground, Nuedanbieke could take advantage and get a win by submission.

**I don’t see Nuedanbieke being able to win here, but I will have a little sprinkle of him to be there in the case of an upset.

T.J Brown will be one of my higher-owned fighters on the card, as I think there is a good chance he volumes his way to an excellent fantasy score.

Vegas 57 Pick: Brown

Paiva ($7,700) Vs. Morozov ($8,500)

Morozov has lost two of the last three, but look at the quality: Umar Nurmagomedov (12-0) and Silva de Andrade (27-4).

On the other side of the fight, Paiva has some decent wins, including decision wins against Kyler Phillips (20-3) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (19-3). However, I think Morozov is the better fighter and will get the win here.

Morozov is a TD machine that could expose Paiva and control the fight. I see that being likely (Morozov’s decision is +165). That said, I will have a fair amount of Morozov and will keep Paiva as a sprinkle for now.

Vegas 57 Pick: Morozov 

Buys ($8,200) Vs. Durden ($8,000)

This fight is almost even money; it is +110 to go under 2.5.  Buys is -115 to get a finish, and Durden is +105. This tells me there is a good chance of this ending within the distance. I will ensure I have a good amount of both fighters as they are not priced that high relative to scoring potential in a finish.

Vegas 57 Pick: Buys

Kelleher ($7,500) Vs. Bautista ($8,700)

Over 2.5 is -135. I like the dog in this fight as he scores an average of 110 ftpts over his recent three wins. Bautista won’t have much to bring to Kelleher with the wresting, so I don’t see him scoring well as he only scored 87 ftpts with a finish in RD2. At $8,700, I think there are other fighters with better upside in that price range.

Therefore, Dog or pass with the dog being owned at least at field projected ownership.

Vegas 57 Pick: Kelleher

Demopoulos ($7,000) Vs. Frey ($9,200)

Neither fighter is overly appealing as this fight could be a stinker candidate. I will have both fighters at 10% across multiple entries. Frey should win a dull decision here (-110).

Vegas 57 Pick: Frey 

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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Vegas 57 UFC DraftKings Picks/Preview