MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (9 games)
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Shane McClanahan @ NYY
Yup, prime GPP option here for me tonight. Shane O’ Mac is facing off against the dangerous Yankees offense, but he has some really good numbers against the Yankees offense. Last night we saw a 2-0 game and I can see the same thing happening here tonight with good pitching on both sides. When he faced the Yanks earlier this year, he went 6 innings, striking out 7 batters and allowing just 1 ER. He’s been consistently throwing well for the Rays, racking up anywhere between 7-9 strikeouts per start and has rolled off 6 straight quality starts. Last 2 weeks against LHP, the Yanks are powerful but have the 7th highest strikeout rate. Shane has massive upside here. GPP
Corbin Burnes @ NYM
Very tough matchup for the Brewers here tonight against the Mets. Their offense has been amazing but Burnes is a guy who can limit the damage here. He has struggled hard over his last 2 starts and hasn’t had the best season so far. One thing is, he has been better in 6 road starts than he has been in 6 home starts. He has thrown 38 innings with 42 K’s on the road this season and allowing a .188 BAA. Since his start @ STL, he has struggled against SD and PHI. So this is another game with a tough offense. I do like his upside chances though. I won’t be using him in cash games because of the matchup, but if you are going to MME, you have to have at least 5% of him because he’s a guy that can pop off at any point. GPP/MME ONLY
Sep 19, 2021; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays relief pitcher Shane McClanahan (62) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
Nestor Cortes vs TBR
My first cash play of the slate. He comes at a big discount from McClanahan and a little bit from Burnes but has the best matchup of the 3. He’s been great at Yankee Stadium too with a 1.50 ERA, allowing just 16 hits in 30 innings, and has 38 strikeouts. The Rays have been much better against LHP than RHP over the last couple of weeks and haven’t been striking out much against lefties and have been walking a lot. In his lone start against the Rays this year, he went 8 innings, striking out 5 and allowed just 1 ER. I love his upside here and a bounce-back spot after a tough game last time out. We saw Cole bounce back nicely last night and has the same chance to bounce back here. ALL FORMATS
Tyler Anderson vs LAA
Perfect bounce-back spot for Anderson here against the Angels who are still struggling at the dish. Over the last 2 weeks against LHP they have a 30.2% strikeout rate while hitting just .184 and an ISO of .105. Anderson outside of 2 bad starts has been really good for the Dodgers this season. He has been a little worse at home this season, but still really good numbers overall. This season, he really only has 2 bad starts and has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. Has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all of his starts this season except the 2 clunkers. ALL FORMATS
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Jose Berrios vs BAL
Berrios has been great over his last 2 starts. Putting up 18 K’s in 15 innings and allowing just 3 ER. He struggled a bit to start the season, but has been better in 4 of his last 5 starts with that one bad outing against the Angels. Baltimore comes into this game with a 24.4% strikeout rate against RHP but have shown a ton of power in that span. Berrios has been really good at home this season, allowing just 9 ER in 27 innings while striking out just about a batter per inning. I like the upside for Berrios in cash games tonight and he has a high ceiling in GPPs too. ALL FORMATS
David Peterson vs MIL
On the other end of the game we have David Peterson, who looks to be getting a spot in the rotation even with Megill coming back from the IL. He’s been decent this year and threw 2.2 innings 5 days ago over the weekend. He’s been respectable starting and has a decent matchup with the Brewers offense here. MIL comes into this game with a 23% strikeout rate against LHP over the last 2 weeks while hitting .231. He can neutralize left-handed power from the Brewers but they still have some guys who can mash LHP. I don’t mind using him for GPPs tonight at a cheaper price. GPP
Spencer Strider @ WSH
Strider paid off last time out against the Pirates where he went 5.2 innings and struck out 8 hitters in that start. He was 1 out away from getting a QS and has looked good for the Braves. On the road, he has thrown 19.2 innings with 26 K’s and is allowing just a .136 batting average. He’s been a real spark for the Braves rotation since moving into it. I would like to see him go a bit deeper into games, but he’s made just 3 starts this year after starting in the bullpen. His innings have been going up a bit and we have seen his strikeout ability with 20 K’s in 14 innings since turning into a starter. In June, he has 2 starts and has allowed just 1 ER with 13 K’s in 9.2 innings. I love his upside here even in a matchup with Washington who doesn’t strikeout a ton. ALL FORMATS, SP2 DK
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Nestor Cortes
- Shane McClanahan
- Tyler Anderson
- Spencer Strider
- Jose Berrios
- Corbin Burnes
- David Peterson
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- Atlanta Braves
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DINGER OF THE DAY
Jun 12, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves left fielder Adam Duvall (14) bats against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Adam Duvall
I was going back and forth between him and Buxton, both have great numbers against the starter they are facing. But, I wanted to be a little different and go with Duvall. He has 3 HR over his last 4 games and is 7-15 with 2 HR and 2 doubles against Erick Fedde. Buxton would be my other Dinger of the Day call today as he is 4-7 with 3 HR against Gonzales. Duvall and the Braves offense has been absolutely rolling of late and Fedde isn’t that great of a pitcher. Duvall’s teammate, Marcell Ozuna is another candidate as he is 6-9 with 2 HR against Fedde too.
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