MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Nestor Cortes @ MIN
Cortes has been amazing for the Yanks all season and now he’s priced up a lot. Still something that I’m not too worried about. He comes into this start with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. He’s striking out over a hitter per inning so far this season too. MIN comes into this game with middle of the pack strikeout rate against LHP, but their lineup does have strikeouts in it. They have some guys who have a lot of power against LHP, like Correa and Buxton, but other than that, not many guys are hitting all that well against lefties. Cortes has been an Ace for this Yankee staff and should be rolled out there whenever he starts. ALL FORMATS
Aaron Nola @ MIL
Nola typically has been better pitching at home over his career, but he actually has been really good on the road this year too. He has allowed 4 fewer home-runs on the road and 5 less ER. He’s still over a strikeout per inning on the road as well. He struggled in his last start allowing 5 ER against the Giants, but in his one start against the Brewers this year he went 7 innings and struck out 9 hitters. Some guys on this MIL team have good numbers against Nola, but I do like the upside he brings tonight. LEAN GPP
Shane Bieber vs TEX
Bieber has really struggled at home this year, allowing 10 ER in just 16.1 innings. He was better in his last home start against the TIgers though. In his last 4 starts, he has allowed 2 or fewer runs and struck out 33 hitters in 28 innings. The Rangers have been a bit better of late, only striking out 21% of the time against RHP and have a decent ISO too. Bieber has looked much better of late, and I have some interest in him here on this bigger slate. ALL FORMATS
Apr 23, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees pitcher Nestor Cortes (65) delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Bassitt @ SDP
Bassitt gets the start in the showcase game for the Mets tonight. He’s been pretty good all season for the Mets outside of a couple blow ups against the Giants. He had a good start at the DOdgers last time out, striking out 8 over 6 innings. The Padres are striking out 23.8% to RHP in the last 2 weeks while hitting just .229 and an ISO of .134. LEAN GPP
Tony Gonsolin @ CWS
Gonsolin was a guy in the beginning of the season that we couldn’t trust going more than 5 innings. But he has pitched 6 innings in his last 4 starts with just about a strikeout per inning. Gonsolin has managed to allow 2 or fewer runs in every start he has made so far this year. With a WHIP sitting at 0.88, he’s not walking a ton of guys and doesn’t allow a lot of hits. CWS comes into this game with a fairly low strikeout rate, but they aren’t hitting for much power of late against RHP either. I do like the upside he brings, but lack of strikeouts for the CWS lineup does worry me a little. GPP
Nathan Eovaldi @ LAA
The Angels suck right now, 12 game losing streak and it doesn’t get any easier for them with Eovaldi on the bump tonight. Boston has been rolling of late and made their way back into a wild card spot in the AL. The Angels also lost Trout last night to an injury. LAA comes into this game with the 2nd highest strikeout rate against RHP at 26.9% and are hitting just .215 with an ISO of .125 in the last 2 weeks against RHP. Eovaldi since the awful start against Houston has allowed just 4 ER in 21.2 innings while striking out 25 batters. Love his upside here. ALL FORMATS
Ian Anderson vs OAK
Anderson has struggled a bit of late, making him good for GPPs but hard to trust in cash games. Oakland comes into this game with a 24% strikeout rate against RHP though and hitting under .200 as a team. He has struggled at home though, but this matchup is hard to just pass over when he’s cheap on both sites. He isn’t a big strikeout guy normally, but did have 9 in his last start and has been around 1 K per inning over his last 3 starts. IF he can limit all the hits he allows, he could have a good game and get it rolling against a struggling Oakland team. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Nestor Cortes
- Shane Bieber
- Ian Anderson
- Tony Gonsolin
- Chris Bassitt
- Aaron Nola
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Atlanta Braves
- San Francisco Giants
- St. Louis Cardinals
DINGER OF THE DAY
May 20, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Braves designated hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) looks on from inside the dugout prior to the game against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Right back to the well with Acuna here tonight, facing another lefty. This time, he’s facing a guy making his MLB debut. Jared Koenig has been good for the A’s in the Minors and has been a journeyman since getting drafted. Playing years in Independent Ball and a year in Australia. Acuna though, has been on fire of late and had a nice double dong night last night. Since the turn to June, Acuna is 10-22 with 3 HR and a double. The Braves have been hitting very well against LHP over the last 2 weeks.
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