Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/24:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Alex Cobb
- Alek Manoah
- Merrill Kelly
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Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (-170)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a very nice total for the Rangers in this one. I like the way a number of bats in their lineup are swinging it. I wouldn’t be shocked if they end up in my top 5 in terms of stacks today. Dunning flashed some upside early but hasn’t been great. He gets a blah WAS opponent with Soto struggling.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Yadiel Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Leody Taveras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays (-215)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rays – Jeffery Springs
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I actually love this game for pitching. Springs gets a match-up that should raise his floor quite a bit and Keller gets one that should provide a decent ceiling for GPP purposes. A few of the TB bats have picked it up a bit but let’s be honest, the lineup is rather weak overall.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135) @ San Diego Padres
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get another low-totaled game with a couple of pitchers with big-time upside. I definitely trust Nola more, which is saying a lot considering I used to fade him on the road. The Philly lineup has gone ice-cold at the right time for Gore while the SD lineup has a few guys doing damage but they aren’t in great shape.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Luke Voit
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
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New York Mets @ Miami Marlins (-140)
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Would you look at that, another low-totaled game tonight. We’ve seen some extremely high-scoring Friday nights but we are getting some plus pitching match-ups. Walker’s K rate has jumped and the Marlins offense isn’t all that worrisome. Alcantara has been an absolute beast so I am definitely not stacking against him.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Arizona D’Backs (-160)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Ronny Garcia
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually think this game goes under the total. Neither offense is exactly a juggernaut and both SPs have had impressive stretches. I am a big Kelly fan, especially when he’s facing guys that never see him. Javy Baez is finally rolling and he’s destroying the ball the last week.
DET 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Riley Greene
GPP Note: Team ISO of .167 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker, Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-160)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I can definitely see why this game has a total of 9 at this point. Both offenses are definitely capable of getting to the opposing pitching staff. There are a few guys either swinging it well overall or displaying power over the last week. Might end up being a sneaky game stack spot.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (-125)
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am actually shocked that Verlander isn’t favored in this one. We get an absolutely banging SP match-up with offenses that are also capable of going off at any moment. Both offenses have been displaying all kinds of power the last week or so but neither has fared very well against the opposing SP.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .280 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .254 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-160) @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Brewers – Adrian Houser
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I do believe the Blue Jays get to Houser as he just isn’t as dominant as I thought he’d be at the MLB level. There is so much power in this lineup that his control issues can pop up at any time, which lead to big innings. Manoah is going to be on my short list despite the appearance of a difficult match-up. I think he has tremendous upside against a somewhat limited lineup.
TOR 5-star plays: Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Raimel Tapia, Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .235 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals (-160)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Pirates – Andre Pallante
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. All I see is potential fireworks from the STL side of this game. I know the Cubs have shown some explosive totals and maybe that leads this to a game that can be stacked. I love the BvP history for Goldschmidt and Arenado as they have racked up extra-base hits against Hendricks. Neither SP should be anywhere near our player pool for tonight’s game.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Alfonso Rivas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .199 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Pivetta looks to be in a great spot as the overall Guardians lineup is really weak plus the ballpark has really suppressed HRs this season. Quantrill definitely has some ability but I don’t really want to use pitchers against a lineup like Boston’s. I think this game is more of a mini-stack approach as a handful of the BOS bats are a bit cool at the moment but I won’t talk you out of a full stack.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Luis Urias
Braves – Ian Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I am actually shocked at the total in this game with Urias and Anderson squaring off. I know both teams are extremely potent but that also mean the weather is prime for the ball to carry. There isn’t a massive sample size but neither offense has fared well against the opposing SP which is really interesting to me. Freeman and Trea Turner are on fire right now for the Dodgers. Freddie returning to ATL is going to be a big time story and with him being a veteran, I can see a big performance out of him this weekend.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .193 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals (-135)
Pitchers:
A’s – Cole Irvin
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get a game with 2 SPs that I look to pick on but they are facing off against offenses that I hate trying to choose from. We know how weak the OAK lineup has been but Greinke isn’t exactly a guy that’s going to make them look bad. Irvin can get outs but he’s also not a dominant arm. I really am torn here as the Royals feel like they should be better than they have been at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (-175)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Kyle Bradish
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. From a long term perspective, I really like both of the SPs in this game. As far as this game goes, I really only want to use Kopech. I think Bradish is in trouble with his struggles against RHBs while Kopech always has upside. Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert have been absolutely raking at the plate, which spells danger for Bradish this evening. He has allowed an average of .402 and an OPS of 1.157 against RHBs this season.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (-200)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am ashamed to admit that I am going to be all over Alex Cobb in this game. He’s a massive home favorite against one of the weakest offenses in ALL of baseball. I know he hasn’t been extremely sharp but he does have 31 Ks in 22 home innings this season while allowing just 2 HRs in SF. I think we could see Joc get hot for a stretch even though I actually prefer RHBs against Ashcraft (small sample size).
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Tommy La Stella
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins (-160)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Cron has smacked Bundy around in his career and the Rockies bats come in hitting .303 with an OPS of .925 over the last week. We definitely could see some offensive fireworks in Minnesota tonight. Marquez has allowed 14 HRs already this season and they have come both on the road and at home. The Twins are an offense that runs so hot and cold and they often can flip a switch out of nowhere to the other side.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .246 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- St Louis Cardinals
- Chicago White Sox
MLB Dinger of the Day – Paul Goldschmidt, STL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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