Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Joe Musgrove (what abou the wind?)
- Zack Wheeler
- Martin Perez
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Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees (-175)
Pitchers:
Rays – Jalen Beeks/Josh Fleming/Bullpen
Yankees – Luis Severino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Aaron Judge should be at the top of everybody’s player pool, every single slate the Yankees are on at this point. Severino is extremely attractive in this match-up as he has looked really strong of late. I generally hate bullpen games from a DFS standpoint so we are going to want to pay attention to updates on the Rays plans. If they are going to use Fleming as the long-man, I really think we can get comfortable with Yankees stacks.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ji-Man Choi, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .255 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (-250)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gausman gets to take on his former team and I love that little piece of this match-up. The Toronto bats are definitely alive and well right now so they should be near the top of everybody’s stack list. Odor has hit Gausman extremely well during his career but it’s tough for me to want to target bats against him.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rougned Odor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-210) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Wheeler is always a big time play and I will be on him today. I was shocked to see a total so high with Wheeler on the mound but we see Corbin on the other side. The Phillies have been really strong since letting go of Girardi so I think they keep that momentum going. The offense is definitely dangerous and Rhys Hoskins is leading my Dinger of the Day debate.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
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Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets (-135)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Mets – Tylor Megill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee bats woke up in a big way last night but I don’t think that means they are about to get hot. Megill is capable of a strong performance and the Milwaukee team total is rather low. On the other side, Ashby flashes elite stuff but then he gets smacked around. The Mets aren’t huge favorites in a low totaled game so I have to believe that Ashby is worth consideration.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
Texas Rangers (-150) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Tigers – Beau Brieske
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Perez has been pitching so well that I expect him to carry ownership and I am ok with that. I will keep attacking Brieske, even after he shut down a Toronto squad that should have lit him up. Adolis Garcia might move to a 5-Star type play because of his power against RHPs.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .062 over the last week.
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Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Paul Blackburn
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. My initial look doesn’t love much from OAK but the team total is decent so maybe they should be in consideration for at least a mini-stack. I will always be on the Boston stack, just some nights more than others. Devers just continues to perform and JD is just a hitting machine. Verdugo woke up a bit recently and when you add in guys like Bogaerts and Story, you get a strong 5 man.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .213 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-200) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Cubs – Matt Swarmer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. I can assume that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley with this kind of a total. The Padres lineup erupted last night and I think everybody is going to flock to that again. I don’t really have an initial thought on fading them for leverage yet but I do need to see the projected ownerships that we offer on site. Musgrove has been elite this season but if the wind is blowing out, I think we see him give up a few runs.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yan Gomes, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels (-120) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Angels were nearly no-hit last night and then Ohtani ended that with a triple in the 9th. He gets to take the mound as a slight favorite tonight. Kirby has elite level talent but he is far from consistent and he keeps allowing HRs. I don’t necessarily want to fully stack either side but I don’t mind the mini-stack route, trying to locate the HRs that should be hit in this game.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-125) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. The Coors game wasn’t bad last night but with other teams putting up 10+, it meant we just needed one-offs or mini-stacks. That feels like how it will be again tonight. I think both SPs are capable enough to surprise but there are some HR worries from both of them. CJ Cron really stands out to me as a potential double-dong option with how McKenzie pitches to RHBs.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Texas Rangers
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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