Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 3, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) bats against the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Goldschmidt O 1.5 total bases
STL vs MIA
The NL MVP candidate gets one of the best individual matchups of the day against lefty Braxton Garrett. Garrett is a young pitcher that should have a very tough time on the road against this right-handed heavy Cardinals team. Garrett throws the slider and fastball the most. Goldschmidt has a whopping 14 run value against the slider and 7 against the fastball on baseball savant. In addition, Goldschmidt is absolutely destroying left-handed pitching this season. He is batting .451 with .843 slugging. Hopefully, he does not get walked. Nolan Arenado has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He will be protecting Goldy. Garrett only has a 5.9% walk rate this season.
Sean Manaea O 5.5k
SD @ ARI
The Diamondbacks strike out the 7th-most against LHPs at 23.5% this season. They have a lot of left-handed bats including Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas, David Peralta, Josh Rojas, and Pavin Smith. Arizona does not have the capability to platoon every game like San Francisco can. This forces them to use some lefties in their lineup. Jordan Luplow is known to be a lefty specialist. He should leadoff against Manaea. Luplow does have power. However, he is only batting .162 including .200 against LHPs. He actually helps Manaea because he has a 28.7% K rate this season and that number is also 28.7% vs LHPs the last two seasons. Manaea has a 25.5% K rate which is high enough to get to 6 strikeouts. Players like Buddy Kennedy and Jake Hager should start and could feed Manaea strikeouts.
Tarik Skubal O 5k
DET @ SF
San Francisco continues to deal with injuries. They have barely had their entire starting lineup healthy this season. This could be as close as it gets meaning their season hitting stats do not properly reflect the lineup they will be rolling out today. On the year, the Giants strike out at 23.5%, good for 8th-most against LHPs. In order to get a better estimate of their hitting stats while still keeping a large enough sample size, let us look at the past month. The Giants have a 25.6% k rate which would be 2nd-most against LHPs in that time frame. They have also started Joc Pederson a few times against LHPs. Skubal has a 26.3% k rate this season which is in the 74th percentile. His primary pitch is the slider. San Francisco ranks 18th against the slider in average runs scored off of that pitch. He looks to be in a good position to get 6+, but we get the luxury of a push.
Corey Seager O 1.5 total bases
TEX @ KC
Jonathan Heasley has significant L/R splits. He is allowing a .184 avg to righties with 0 home runs allowed compared to .273 and 7 home runs allowed to lefties. Heasley ranks near the bottom in many pitching categories. He is allowing a 45.2% hard hit rate this season. Seager only strikes out 17.8% anyway but Heasley’s k rate is 17.8% as well. This ranks in the 18th percentile while his whiff rate ranks in the 26th percentile and has a chase rate in the 13th percentile. Someone is going deep against him. The Rangers have several lefties aside from Seager including Kole Calhoun, Nate Lowe, and Brad Miller. I trust the best player on the team in Seager. His numbers might not look that great this season, but he is headed for positive regression. The wind will be blowing out towards center at 8mph helping Seager.
Robbie Ray U 36.5fpt
SEA vs BAL
This line was at 37.5 which is actually pretty important. The way earned runs and strikeouts are scored in multiples of 3 and the 4 points from the quality start make 37 an important threshold. I still like the under at 36.5 though. Ray has good strikeout stuff but is susceptible at giving up many runs. His walks issues are not as prominent anymore as his walk rate sits at 8.3%. Ray gives up a good amount of extra base hits. He has allowed 14 home runs this season. He primarily throws a fastball and slider. The Orioles rank 3rd against sliders this season. Baltimore’s home field, Camden Yards became more pitcher friendly this season with the left field fences moved back. This has resulted in better away hitting splits. They have a 108 wRC+ against LHPs on the road. There is a chance Ray will not have much run support if Winker, Rodriguez, and Crawford start their suspensions.
Just missed the cut: SD/ARI NRFI, DET/SF NRFI
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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