Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jun 11, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez (28) runs the bases after hitting a two run home run against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports
J.D. Martinez O 0.5r+rbi
BOS vs DET
The Red Sox have the highest run total today at 5.6. They are taking on Alex Faedo and the Tigers. Faedo has pitched alright so far this season but should see a bit of negative regression soon. His xERA sits at 4.90 while his actual ERA is 4.28. Faedo relies on a fastball and slider combo against RHBs. He only has a 32.8% groundball rate. Martinez is a low groundball rate hitter at 38.8%. This seems like a spot where Martinez will be able to make good contact. He has been one of the better hitters in all of baseball for a few seasons now. Martinez is right in the heart of the Boston lineup. Devers will get on base. If Martinez somehow comes to bat with nobody on, he is always a threat to homer. Bogaerts is having a great year and can certainly drive Martinez in.
NYY/TB NRFI (U 0.5 1st inning runs)
NYY @ TB
This was a popular pick last time these two teams faced off with the exact same pitching matchup in Shane McClanahan versus Gerrit Cole. Aaron Judge went deep in his first at-bat. That will be the concern once again today. However, this game will be played in Tampa Bay. Tropicana Field is a much better pitcher’s ballpark than Yankee Stadium is. Judge and this Yankees lineup have enough power to hit it out anywhere but it is a significant ballpark downgrade for New York. These are two of the best pitchers in baseball. This should be a pitcher’s duel which is reflected in the 3.2 and 3.5 run totals. This is a a -180 on DK sportsbook.
Gerrit Cole O 97.5 pitches thrown
NYY @ TB
Luis Severino only went 5 innings on Sunday. New York used three relievers: Miguel Castro, Wandy Peralta, and Ron Marinaccio. On Saturday, they used Michael King and Clay Holmes. The Yankee bullpen is a bit worn down right now. They could really use some length out of Cole. He is the ace of the staff and could be pushed a little further than usual. Manny Banuelos, Lucas Luetge, and Ryan Weber are the only relievers who were not used Saturday or Sunday. 2 of these are lefties. It might come down to when Ji-Man Choi is batting. At that point, if Cole’s pitch count is up there, he could get taken out for a lefty. However, the Rays could just pinch-hit for Choi. Cole has gone over 100 pitches many times throughout his career. This should be another one of those outings.
Zach Davies O 22.5fpt
ARI @ SD
Davies has been exceptional in his past three starts. They have not been against the best hitting teams but he still deserves credit. He had a poor season last year but has really improved this year. Davies is mostly a two-pitch pitcher but both his sinker and changeup have been better. He takes on a San Diego team ranked 17th in wRC+ at 97. Manny Machado suffered an injury running to first base on Sunday. He should be out for Monday. That means the two best players on the Padres, Machado and Tatis Jr. will be out. Sergio Alcantara replaced Machado on Sunday. This is a huge downgrade for the offense. Davies is in for a much softer matchup today. It will be tough to earn the win with Yu Darvish on the other side but this line is low enough to the point where he does not need the +6 to hit.
Andrew Vaughn O 5.5fpt / Jose Abreu O 6.5fpt
CHW vs TOR
The White Sox seem to be a little undervalued today. Jose Berrios has had a rough season. His stats are worse than they have been since his rookie season. He is allowing a career-high 47% hard-hit rate. His K rate sits at only 20.5% which is down 6% compared to last year. The White Sox are expected to get Tim Anderson back today. Overall, this will help Chicago’s offense. We have to watch where Vaughn bats in the lineup. I would expect Anderson to lead off for Mendick and Vaughn stays in the two hole. Both Vaughn and Abreu hit the ball hard and limit their strikeouts. Vaughn has a 16.6% k rate and ranks in the 87th percentile of hard hit rate. Abreu has a 16.3% k rate and ranks in the 98th percentile of hard hit rate. Berrios has been hit hard this season and it should continue today.
Just missed the cut: ARI/SD NRFI, Taylor Ward O 1.5h+bb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
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