Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
May 11, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels right fielder Taylor Ward (3) reacts after hitting a two run home run against the Tampa Bay Rays during the eighth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
SD/COL YRFI (O 0.5 1st inning runs)
SD @ COL
This game has the highest run total of the slate. San Diego is implied for 6.8 runs while Colorado is implied for 5.5 runs. Coors Field is as good as it gets. The conditions are even better for hitters today. It will be 93 degrees with 13mph winds blowing straight out to CF. MacKenzie Gore is a young pitcher. He has great talent but young pitchers tend to struggle in Coors because they do not know how to pitch there. He is a fastball pitcher but the curve is his secondary pitch. Coors Field causes breaking balls to lose their break which will make them easier to hit. Kyle Freeland has made some good starts this season. The Padres are 9th in wRC+ against LHPs and have the highest team total of the slate. I would take the O 1.5hits when that line is up in the morning.
Taylor Ward O 5.5fpt
LAA @ SEA
Ward has been dealing with some injuries. He is having a breakout year batting leadoff for the Angels. This will be his fourth game back. He hits in front of arguably the best duo in baseball, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. If Ward can get on base, these guys behind him should drive him in. Lefty Robbie Ray will be on the mound. He struggles with control but has improved that compared to his earlier years. Ray is not the pitcher he was last year. He has allowed 11 homers to righties this season. Ward is hitting .324 against righties and lefties this year. He has one of the highest walk rates in the league at 15.7%. This line is discounted when Ray really does not deserve ace treatment. This should be at least 6.5.
Hunter Greene U 32.5fpt
CIN vs MIL
This was originally at 30.5. I was leaning towards the under. It then got moved up to 32.5. Greene will be facing Milwaukee for the third time this season. He had his worst start of his career against them the first meeting. That was in Milwaukee but Cincinnati has one of the best hitter’s ballparks next to Colorado. Greene has struck out at least 6 batters in all of his starts except one. This line is inflated due to his 7 inning, 1 hit, 8 strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee does strike out but when you face the same pitcher three times in a season, the offense should have the advantage. Greene typically does not go deep so the quality start will be hard to hit. The Brewers have several hitters who hit high velocity fastballs and sliders well, Greene’s two most thrown pitches.
Willy Adames O 7fpt
MIL @ CIN
Of those Brewers hitters that hit Greene’s pitches well, Adames is one of them. In that 8ER start for Greene, Adames had a monster game going deep twice. Greene throws 100+mph. Adames had a 56.8% hard hit rate with a .320 avg against fastballs in 2021. He is crushing sliders this season. Adames should be able to put together a good game again against Greene. It will be 85 degrees with 9mph winds blowing out in Great American Ball Park. The Brewers are implied for 4.9 runs but this should be well over 5 by game time. Adames has lowered his groundball rate each season, now down to 35.1%. Greene has only a 27.9% groundball rate. He should put the ball in the air in this launchpad of a stadium. Adames has traditional splits this year but has been a reverse splits hitter for his career. Greene is reverse as well. The Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in the league.
Jose Altuve O 6.5fpt
HOU vs CHW
The Astros are discounted today against Lucas Giolito. Michael Brantley was at 5.5 which is one of my favorite plays of the day. It is now at 6.5. I will take Altuve because he has stolen base upside. Giolito does allow stolen bases. He really has not been that great this season. Giolito has a 30.7% strikeout rate but a lot of his other stats are worse than last season. He has a 45.6% hard hit rate, 9.6% walk rate, and an xERA of 4.66. He is allowing a lot of power this season with multiple games of allowing 2 home runs. Giolito has given up 9 homers and a 1.70 WHIP against RHBs which are reverse splits. Altuve has reverse splits although not drastically. This line maybe would be fair if Houston was facing Dylan Cease.
Just missed the cut: Josh Bell G1 U 7.5fpt, Jonathan India O 6.5fpt, Brandon Drury O 6.5fpt
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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