Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Mar 23, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; New York Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu (26) hits a home run during the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles during spring training at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
DJ LeMahieu O 0.5r+rbi
NYY vs CHC
LeMahieu leadoff for one of the best offenses in baseball. The Yankees are ranked 1st in wRC+ against RHPs. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton follow LeMahieu in the batting order. Judge and Stanton are two of the best power bats in the league while Rizzo just knows how to get it done. New York is back home playing in one of the better hitter’s parks. They take on the Chicago Cubs. Matt Swarmer will be making his 3rd start of the season. He has been good his first two starts but this is his toughest test yet. I expect the Yankees to put up a lot of runs in this game. The Cubs have an average bullpen. New York is implied for 5.7 runs. 8mph winds blowing out to LF make this an even better spot for hitters.
Manuel Margot O 0.5r+rbi
TB @ MIN
Margot is usually hitting 2nd against RHPs. The Rays take on Chi Chi Gonzalez and the Minnesota Twins today. Gonzalez is not a good pitcher. Target Field is a pitcher’s ballpark but Gonzalez is still going to give up runs. The winds will be blowing straight out towards CF at 7mph in 77 degree weather. The Rays play in a pitcher’s park too so it really is not a downgrade for the hitters. Margot is hitting .261 at home compared to .390 on the road. Margot is on pace for his best season yet. He is hitting .313 with 3HR, and 21RBIs. He missed some games due to an injury. Margot has close to a 9% walk rate and strikes out 14.5% of the time. Kevin Kiermaier and Ji-Man Choi should bat ahead and behind him respectively. Margot can certainly drive a run in but his teammates should be able to drive him in against Gonzalez.
Tommy Edman O 0.5r+rbi
STL vs CIN
The Cardinals are taking on Hunter Greene and the Cincinnati Reds. Greene is a two-pitch pitcher when it comes to facing righties. St. Louis is stacked with right-handed bats. Greene has shown some reverse splits in his first season probably due to this two=pitch mix. Greene pitched well last time out but that was against Arizona. St. Louis is a much better offense than the Diamondbacks and happen to be one of the better ones in the league. Edman sets the table for this Cardinals team. Similar to LeMahieu’s situation, having Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado bat behind certainly gives Edman a lot of run scoring chances. St. Louis is projected for 4.6 runs. The Reds have the worst bullpen in terms of ERA at 5.20. It is going to be 86 degrees with 5mph winds blowing out to RF.
Matt Swarmer U 23.5fpt
CHC @ NYY
If Swarmer faced tougher opponents in his first two starts of the season, he likely would not have pitched as well. He now heads into Yankee Stadium for his first road start. This line seems too high for this matchup. Even the best pitchers have poor starts here because this stadium just plays so well for hitters. Swarmer is also a two=pitch pitcher like Greene. The problem is, he does not throw 100mph. He averages 90mph on his fastball and 82mph on his slider. Swarmer got through 6 innings in both starts. He was rather efficient only needing 86 and 92 pitches. The Yankees have cut down on their strikeout rate this season. Swarmer has allowed three home runs in these two starts. That seems like trouble against this powerful Yankee lineup in Yankee Stadium tonight. The Yankees are heavy favorites with Jordan Montgomery on the mound.
Trey Mancini O 1.5tb
BAL @ KC
This should be one of the best hitting environments today. It will be 88 degrees with 8mph winds blowing out to LF. Lefty, Daniel Lynch is on the mound for the Royals. Mancini will have the platoon advantage in this one. He is the best Orioles hitter and is having a great season. His expected numbers show that there will be positive regression coming. Mancini is hitting .298 but has an xBA of .323. He is striking out and walking more at career high rates of 17.2% and 9.2% respectively. Mancini hit lefties significantly better than righties last season. These splits should reflect that as the season goes on. Lynch allows a ton of power to RHBs with 8HRs given up to righties compared to 0 against lefties. He has a sub-20% strikeout rate. The Kansas City bullpen has the 3rd-highest ERA in the league with a bottom-third K-rate.
Just missed the cut: BAL/KC YRFI, Patrick Corbin U 24.5fpt, Ryan Mountcastle O 1.5tb, Jose Altuve O 1.5tb, Aaron Judge O 1.5tb, Bobby Witt O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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