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When drafting your team, it is pivotal to avoid landmines in the early stages of the draft. Drafting the wrong players in early rounds can have catastrophic consequences on your success. Rounds 1-7 are where we find the most league-winning players. We don’t advocate the mantra of a “Do Not Draft” list. These NFL Wide Receivers, at their current Average Draft Positions (ADP’s) though, are huge risks when you weigh the opportunity cost of selecting players at similar ADP’s.
To see our current DFS Army Best Ball Rankings, for comparison, click here.
Nov 14, 2021; Landover, Maryland, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) participates in warmups prior to the game against the Washington Football Team at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Godwin, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Average Best Ball Draft Position 52
Chris Godwin is coming off of a great 2021 season in fantasy where he finished as the wide receiver 7 in fantasy points/ game. Tom Brady is coming back for at least one more season and the offense in large part is in place from last year. Godwin looks to be a great bet in 2022 on the surface. The Fantasy Football public seems to have forgotten however that Godwin tore his ACL in week 15 (Dec 19th) of the 2021 season.
Modern medicine is advancing and we have seen players come back on shortened timetables. A 2019 study by the National Library of Medicine found that on average, NFL players take 49.7 weeks to recover from their surgeries, based on 130 players between 2009-2015. We have seen players come back as early as nine months following the injury but that is should not be considered the rule.
A nine month recovery would put Godwin in play at the start of the NFL season but his current ADP assumes that there will be no set backs and that he will be in fine form to start the season. Fantasy Football is challenging enough with player injuries during the season. Godwin is a player that is simply too risky to draft at his ADP. Other wide receivers to target in his range include Courtland Sutton, Juju Smith-Schuster, Rashod Bateman and Brandin Cooks. If you are set on getting a share of the Bucs passing game, Russell Gage at 92 ADP is a great value.
Michael Thomas, WR New Orleans Saints- Average Draft Position 65
Michael Thomas is entering his age 29 season having not played a down in the NFL since week 14 of the 2020 campaign. He missed the entire 2021 season due to an ankle injury he sustained in 2020 and according to Saints coach Dennis Allen, Thomas still isn’t ready to start practicing. For an aging player that had surgery close to a year ago in June 2021, this news should cause any reasonable fantasy manager to be cautious when drafting Thomas at his current ADP.
Thomas is coming back to a Saints team that looks very different from a few years ago. Drew Brees is long retired and his quarterback Jameis Winston is coming back from an ACL injury of his own. The Saints also went out this offseason and signed perennial slot wide receiver Jarvis Landry as well as paid a king’s ransom for the right to draft fellow Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave at pick 1.11 in the NFL Draft. Olave in particular is a prospect that we were very high on and has the ability to win in all facets on the field with his efficient route-running and field stretching speed. He presents a real threat to win targets away from Thomas.
The 2019 season where Thomas was named the NFL Offensive Player of year is a distant memory. The many question marks about his 2022 status make him a player to avoid at his current ADP. Players to target in his range of the draft include Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow if you are looking for a top tier quarterback, Elijah Mitchell at running back or Elijah Moore if you stick with wide receiver.
Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins- Average Draft Position 35
Jaylen Waddle lit the NFL on fire during his rookie campaign posting 104-1,015-6. He earned an impressive 142 targets which equated to a 26.2% target share. The 2022 season was lining up for Waddle to put his stamp on the NFL as a top 10 WR for years to come. That all changed on March 23rd when the Dolphins acquired one of the top 5 wide receiver talents in the league in Tyreek Hill. Now the focus has shifted to their young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and whether he can take another step forward and propel the talent rich offense from mediocre to elite.
In 2021 Tagovailoa had a modest 30 pass attempts/ game which tied for 27th among quarterbacks. He also posted a meager 6.9 air yards per attempt which ranked 31. By comparison, Joe Burrow who also has two wide receivers going early in fantasy drafts averaged 33 attempts per game and 8.1 yards per attempt. Waddle’s low Average Depth of Target of 6.3 yards ranked 88 among wide receivers and suggests that Waddle wins on volume which may be hard to come by next season.
In total Waddle and Hill combined for over 300 targets in 2021 which seems next to impossible to repeat in 2021 unless Tagovailoa takes a monumental step forward. It would be a great story if he can come all the way back from the devastating hip injury in 2019 to lead the would-be high flying offense. Unfortunately, all signs point to him being an average quarterback at best. Jaylen Waddle proved that he was an elite, ascending player in 2021 but Hill is no slouch. Their quarterback has much to prove before we trust that he can keep two high-end wide receivers fantasy relevant. Players to target in his range include DJ Moore, Michael Pittman and Diontae Johnson.
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Honorable Mentions:
DeAndre Hopkins, WR Arizona Cardinals – Average Best Ball Draft Position 74
Hopkins is a supreme talent but he is suspended for the first six games of the season. Drafting Hopkins in this range you won’t post zeros in best ball but you sacrifice critical upside weeks. Players such as DeVonta Smith, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are much safer in this range.
Gabriel Davis, WR Buffalo Bills – Average Draft Position 54
Davis melted faces in the playoffs posting 8-201-4 against Kansas City. In the regular season though he posted only a single WR 1 week, two WR 2 weeks and three WR 3 weeks. Buffalo also brought in capable slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder, drafted the pass catching running back James Cook and also kept Isaiah McKenzie on the roster who showed upside glimpses in 2021. Oh, and Stefon Diggs is going to command his team leading 150+ targets. The situation seems too murky to be drafting Davis so early in best ball drafts.
Follow Shane on Twitter @theflexnetwork1
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