Oct 3, 2021; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs with the football as Miami Dolphins outside linebacker Brennan Scarlett (57) pulls his jersey during the third quarter of the game at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down 10 fantasy draft mistakes that can lead to a bad season. This article is part 1 and part 2 can be found by clicking here!
Not Understanding Your League Rules
This is first on the list because, well, it is extremely important for a successful draft. Understanding your league rules starts with knowing the format of your league. The most common league formats are: Standard, Half-PPR, PPR, and IDP. Each format has different rules and point allocations, which can drastically change your drafting decisions.
From there you will want to take into consideration the starting lineup, bench size, point bonuses, positional premiums and any additional alterations to the scoring system.
Drafting Players Around ADP Only
There is a reason that ADP is important, it allows a fantasy manager to understand where value is and where it is not. The closer we get to the 2022 season the sharper ADPs become. Keep in mind, this is an average draft position for thousands of drafts and you are not bound to the metric. There will be “busts” and “values” all based on incorrect ADPs. Your job is to find the values and avoid the busts.
If you avoid taking players before their ADP, you will miss out on key players who may break out. But if you constantly reach for a player, then your chances of building a turdly team increases substantially with each reach. Understanding both sides of this is crucial to avoid fantasy draft mistakes.
Depending on your draft position, you may be forced to reach through your entire snake draft. When you draft in the first or final three picks within a round (12-team draft), reaching properly is crucial.
Drafting Low-Upside Players Late
The final three bench spots (this does not include kicker or D/ST) should be reserved for players that can breakout or at the least, increase in value substantially should they have a big Week 1.
The reason you should do this is because the final three bench spots are notorious for being cut from your team anyway, so why are you drafting low-depth-chart skill players with little hope to break out? Take multiple shots on players with high upside, based off ADP.
In a 12-team draft, I am constantly finding these type of players at the end. These players have huge potential upside, should their role be heavily featured in Week 1. Here are a few names:
- Matt Ryan, QB (ADP 150)
- Isiah Pacheco, RB (ADP 150)
- Tyler Allgeier, RB (ADP 156)
- Christian Watson, WR (ADP 163)
- Davis Mills, QB (ADP 178)
- Sammy Watkins, WR (ADP 178)
- Isaiah McKenzie, WR (ADP 185)
- Gerald Everett, TE (ADP 199)
- Austin Hooper, TE (ADP 221)
Drafting On-The-Go
This is never ideal unless you absolutely have to. There are distractions everywhere when drafting on the move, some places are more forgiving than others. Drafting on the fly creates a more stressful draft which can easily lead to clouded judgement or a lack of patience. These issues compound even more if your mindset becomes negative as a result, too.
Unless you are extremely confident in your knowledge and abilities, drafting on-the-go should be avoided if your goal is to eliminate fantasy draft mistakes.
Relying on Last Season’s Stats
Last year is last year, it is not this year. A lot of things change in one off-season: personnel, coaching staff, ownership, young and promising rookies getting more snaps…the list goes on.
The stats from last season serve a great purpose when presented with context. You gain context by educating yourself around the players you want to draft, as well as the changes on their team that may effect their fantasy outcomes.
You are probably thinking: “I am a casual fantasy player. How do I have time for understanding the context?” And I would agree. That is why it is important to have reliable, updated, rankings for your draft – ones that have the context built in.
Avoiding BYE-Week Correlation
At some point in your fantasy journey you find yourself dodging certain BYE weeks of players. While that can be a tie-breaker between two players, it should not be the main motive around drafting a player. Take the best value and give up one week’s win. In the end it’s the playoffs that matter most and you will presumably be full strength with your team then.
Failing to Mock Draft
Mock drafts seem tedious and their importance can be missed by casual fantasy players. At the very least you should be mock drafting at your draft-position for practice.
You can also tinker with roster construction in mock drafts (what happens if you take a TE or QB in the 2nd round, instead of a WR or RB?) Beyond that, mock drafts are great for testing new draft strategies, which we go over in the next point.
Not Having a Strategy
It is crucial to have a strategy in fantasy football drafts. Lineup construction should depend on your strategy because it will ultimately be your guide during drafts. Will you be deploying hero-RB? Zero-RB? QB late? Each draft-position can require new strategies because different players will be available at different positions of the draft.
While it is critically important to have a strategy, failing to adjust the strategy can also lead to fantasy drafts mistakes, bringing us to the next point.
Failing to Adjust Your Strategy
Seems crazy, right? But in reality every league and manager is different and that can lead to different value opportunities within your draft. Often times I find myself doing a late-round QB strategy, usually selecting a QB around the eighth or ninth round in a 12-team league. Every year I see elite quarterbacks fall into the sixth or seventh round and if they are good enough I will select them.
Sometimes the draft stands out to you. When this happens it’s important to allow the value to come to you, which may stray away from your original plan. Failing to adjust your strategy on the fly quickly leads to fantasy draft mistakes.
Believing Your Team is “Perfect”
When you leave a draft, your team is far from perfect. As alluded to earlier, you will have a bit of roster turnover. You do not win your league on draft day. You win your league on waiver day, by poaching free agents after breaking news, and making last minute pivots when necessary. It is critically important to draft well. A well executed draft sets up a solid foundation for your fantasy season, but your in-season adjustments will carry you through the championship.
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
7 More Fantasy Draft Mistakes Ruining Your Team
5 Ways to Get Your League Mates More Involved
Drafting Quarterbacks Late Strategy
Four Players “Ascending” or “Pretending” in 2022 Fantasy Football
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.