Value Picks for 2022 – ADP Analysis – NFL Fantasy Football

DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down several value targets for fantasy football you should be considering based on ADP data from late-May of 2022.

Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks (13) scores the final touchdown for Houston as Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell (32) can’t make the tackle during the fourth quarter Sunday, Dec. 2021 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jaguars hosted the Texans during a regular season NFL game. Houston defeated Jacksonville 30-16. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Jki 121921 Jagstexans 26

QB

Tom Brady (TB) – QB12

If Brady falls to this position in your draft you need to grab him. Brady still profiles as a Top-Six fantasy quarterback, easily. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette are all set to return, with the addition of Russell Gage. Brady was the QB3 overall in 2021. QB12 ADP for 2022 is way too low.

Justin Fields (CHI) – QB18

Quarterbacks capable of becoming a dual threat, who are available late in fantasy drafts? Yes please. Sure, Fields could not consistently put it together last season. He did average 35 rushing yards per-game, which translates to 3.5 extra fantasy points, and I expect that number to rise in 2022. This Chicago offense is condensed and if it is going to even be “average” then they will need the rushing ability of Fields. In addition, Fields should be able to take the next-step as a passer as well. This is a dart-throw, late draft addition for managers (exception for 2QB leagues, he should be valued higher). Not advised to be your team’s QB1 unless you plan to stream quarterbacks to start.

Check Out Three Pass Catching Groups to Avoid in 2022 Fantasy Foobtall

RB

David Montgomery (CHI) – RB18

Stated again, this Chicago offense is condensed and I certainly expect Montgomery to blow this ADP away. From weeks 11-18, Montgomery was the RB7 overall and averaged 13.7-FPPG. Montgomery was ninth in the NFL for running back touches with 267, and he even missed four games. I don’t care about the coaching change. Chicago will depend on Montgomery to take pressure off of Justin Fields, via the pass and run.

A.J. Dillon (GB) – RB29

It took three games before Green Bay began to utilize Dillon consistently in 2021. From weeks 4-18 he was the RB16 overall and averaged 11.3-FPPG. Remember, receiver Devante Adams has departed from this offense and it leaves a void as to who will be the “go-to,” especially around the goal line. While there is likely no single player to replace Adams, Dillon’s role will have to increase – especially since he has earned the trust of the coaching staff and Aaron Rodgers. Dillon averaged 13-touches-per-game and that easily should increase to around 15-to-16 touches. I also see more touchdowns and total yards from Dillon in 2022 as well.

Melvin Gordon (DEN) – RB40

Towards the end of your drafts you want plug-and-play FLEX players or high-ceiling dart throws. Gordon actually covers both of these requirements. Gordon will be mixing into the backfield with Javonte Williams, just like 2021. This is a new coaching staff so the split may fall away from the 50/50 time share we saw a season ago. He still has fantasy relevancy going into 2022 and managers are continuing to eat up the hype for Williams. The ceiling for Gordon is hinged to Williams; should Williams get hurt, Gordon instantly moves into the high-end RB2 range. Not a bad depth addition for fantasy players.

Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) – RB46

I just don’t understand the fantasy community on this one and I am willing to be wrong about it. One thing is certain about Henderson: he is not the three-down back we wanted him to be. But to kick this man all the way down the draft board to RB46 is blasphemes. Henderson looked great in 2021 and I don’t see him going away in 2022 because of the fact he played so well. While Henderson was healthy in the first 12 weeks of the 2021 season, he was the RB12 overall in that time frame. Yes, Cam Akers is back in 2022. But if we continue to see 2.6-yards-per-carry from Akers (as we did in the post season) Henderson will be getting mixed in heavily. Don’t expect Henderson to be anything like 2021, but at this range of the draft he profiles nicely as a player who should have FLEX appeal. If Akers misses any time, he would instantly be moved to the fringe RB1 range.

Check out Three Backfields to Avoid in 2022 Fantasy Football

WR

Marquise Brown (ARI) – WR26

He finished as the WR23 a season ago, with a series of quarterbacks who could not get him the ball consistently. At the beginning of 2021, when he had his QB1 healthiest, Brown was surging in fantasy football. Unfortunately, Brown burned a lot of fantasy teams after the mid-point of the fantasy season. Let that “sting” turn into value for you in 2022. Brown has a better throwing quarterback (one that is not as run-first too) and a much more suited offense in Arizona. The DeAndre Hopkins suspension could easily allow him to dominate the first six weeks with his new team, but admittedly he could flounder for the first six weeks. To me you are either going to get short-term success from Brown, consistent long-term success, or consistent success once Hopkins gets back. I will take those range of outcomes with an ADP of WR26.

Brandin Cooks (HOU) – WR32

Consistently disrespected, Cooks should be a player that sharp managers target for mid-round value. Over the last two seasons he has finished as WR20 and WR15. He once again is the clear go-to option for Houston and quarterback Davis Mills. Be bullish on Cooks not only because his ADP is grossly incorrect, but because Davis Mills is getting better as a quarterback. That only benefits Cooks’ fantasy outlook for 2022.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) – WR38

Signed to pickup the slack of Tyreek Hill’s departure, WR38 seems to be way too low for Smith-Schuster. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the ability to carry two pass catchers into the top-12 at their position. While I don’t project Smith-Schuster being in the top-12 receivers, I do see him closer to the top-24 range. There were 159 targets voided by Hill in his departure. The Chiefs throw the ball 60-percent of the time and JuJu is only 25-years-old (attempting to jump start his career I might add). Clearly Smith-Schuster was brought into Kansas City to sure-up the receiver room and WR38 is way too bearish on the former USC-product.

Robert Woods (TEN) – WR44

As a starting NFL wide receiver, on a team that projects to go to the playoffs, Woods is simply being overlooked. If you can get a WR1 for any NFL team in a double-digit round, you have found some value. While Woods is not going to set the world on fire, there are limited veteran pass catchers for this Titans team. Even with their heavy investment in Treylon Burks, Woods will provide PPR value from the get-go. Woods was the WR11 in 2021 before his ACL tear. Great, late-round addition.

Check out Four Players “Ascending” or “Pretending” in 2022 Fantasy Football

TE

Robert Tonyan (GB) – TE22

Last season Tonyan fell victim to a torn ACL which cut his poor fantasy season short. Looking forward into 2022, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will need pass catchers he can trust now that Devante Adams and his 169 targets have departed. The upside here is that when Rodgers finds a target that he relies on, he will make plays happen for that player and look his way repeatedly. Tonyan immediately become a player of trust and familiarity for Rodgers. In 2020, Tonyan finished as a top-five tight end six times. Overall he ended up as the TE3 on the year and averaged 9.4-FPPG. He is another player you can grab at the end of your draft.

Austin Hooper (TEN) – TE27

The Titans quickly found out how bad their passing attack was in 2021 without the Derek Henry play action. Immediately following the 2021 season, we saw Tennessee make moves to sure-up their passing offense. Hooper was one of those veteran additions. Hooper was really hitting his stride while he played with Atlanta in 2018 and 2019, but quickly sunk to irrelevancy in 2020-2021 with Cleveland. I like this addition by the Titans. There is room for him to finish in the top-12 at his position. Jonnu Smith did it most recently for the Titans in 2020.

 

MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM

Analysis & Outlooks:

Three Pass Catching Groups to Avoid in 2022

Three Backfields to Avoid in 2022

Four Players “Ascending” or “Pretending” in 2022 Fantasy Football

“Way Too” Early Mock Drafts:

Mock Draft | SuperFlex League | 10-Team | PPR

Mock Draft | Single-QB League | 12-Team | PPR

Early Redraft Rankings:

QB rankings 1-12

RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12

WR rankings 1-6  and WR rankings 7-12

TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12

Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.

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