My first 20 drafts in Underdog’s marquee Best Ball Mania III contest are in the books. I went hard early because I wanted to take advantage of the initially stale ADP. For the first day or two of drafts many of the rookies did not have a listed ADP, so there was wild variance as to where they were being selected.
In my last article I encouraged you to get in front of ADP on rookies like Skyy Moore and James Cook. I was able to snag Skyy Moore as late as pick 145 (13th round). His current ADP is 83.9, in the 7th round. I felt pretty good about getting 6 rounds of perceived value until Erik Beimfohr posted this screenshot with some sexy round 18 Skyy.
I was able to score some James Cook shares as low as pick 158 (14th round). He is currently going in the 10th with an ADP of 109.8, but I’ve seen him go as high as the 7th round.
Now that ADP has settled in a bit, these obvious misprices are gone. That said, there is still value to be had. I am going to highlight my four highest owned player thus far. I believe they are all still good buys at their current prices.
1- Alec Pierce, WR IND. ADP 171.6
The WR from Cincinnati, drafted in the 2nd round by the Colts, is currently my highest owned player. I have Pierce on 50% of my 20 teams. I am getting serious Amon-Ra St. Brown vibes here. I drafted a ton of St. Brown last year (I’m not trying to pat myself on the back. I was also overweight Daniel Jones and Gio Bernard). Like St. Brown, Pierce is a talented, yet somewhat overlooked receiver, going late in fantasy drafts, who landed in a perfect spot to earn significant targets.
The 6’3″ Pierce, who ran a 4.41 at the combine was productive for a Bearcat team that made the college football playoffs. He had 884 yards and 7 TDs as Desmond Ridder’s top target. Unless you believe Parris Campbell is finally going to stay healthy, there isn’t much a head of Pierce on the depth chart aside from Michael Pittman. I believe that by season’s end Pierce will be established as Matt Ryan’s number two target.
I’ll take a wide receiver with good college production, testing, 2nd round draft capital, and clear path to targets all day in the 15th round of best ball drafts.
Oct 14, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones (27) runs with the ball against Philadelphia Eagles safety Rodney McLeod (23) during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
2- Ronald Jones, RB KC. ADP 127.4
When I clicked on the Exposure button and noticed that Ronald Jones Jr (40%) was my highest owned running back it scared me a bit. I’ve long been a Rojo hater. I’ve never understood the fantasy industry’s obsession with the USC product. I’ve been a near full fade of Jones the last couple seasons and never really regretted it.
Rojo is a fairly explosive straight line runner, who was consistently in Brice Arians’ doghouse, and might be the worst pass catching RB in the league.
Arians is long gone and he won’t need to catch many passes to out perform this ADP in the Kansas City offense. CEH or some RB to be named later will likely take most of the pass down work, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Rojo has the potential to rush for double digit touchdowns.
I’ve been scooping up Jones shares and the 11/12th round when he slides. I doubt Rojo will end as my highest owned running back in best ball come September, but if he manages to fall into the end zone 10 times, he’ll be a smash at this price (especially given Underdog’s TD heavy, half PPR scoring).
3- Saquon Barkley, RB NYG. ADP 27.2
Saquon Barkley (35% ownership) looked poised to be a fantasy football super star after a rookie season that saw him post over 2000 combo rushing/receiving yards with 15 total touchdowns. His next 3 seasons were ruined by a deadly combination of injuries, terrible offensive line play, and bad coaching.
The line play and coaching should be much improved in 2022. The Giants used the 7th overall pick on Evan Neal, the 6’7”, 330 tackle out of Alabama. Anyone who starts 4 years on the offensive line for the Tide will enter the league ready to play. Neal and Andrew Thomas, whose play improved greatly last season, should be solid bookend tackles.
Brian Daboll did an excellent job running the offensive and Buffalo and will be a massive upgrade over Jason Garrett and company.
Early reports are that Barkley is more healthy than he’s been in years. The fact that front office brought in little, to no backfield competition suggests their confidence in his ability to stay on the field. The only other running backs listed on the depth chart are Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, and Antonio Williams.
Still only 25-years-old, on the last year of his rookie deal, Saquon will be extremely motivated to produce and earn a big second contract. As the RB14 going in the mid-3rd round there is upside to be had if Barkley regains his form.
4- Drake London, WR ATL. ADP 70.0
Drake London (also 35% owned) was my favorite ranking wide receiver going into the NFL draft. Getting picked 8th overall by the WR needy Falcons did nothing to change that. The depth chart after London (Olamide Zaccheaus, Chad Hansen, Damiere Byrd, KhaDarel Hodge, Auden Tate, Frank Darby, and Austin Trammell) reads like USFL wide receiver room. The upside in best ball drafts is definitely there.
The 6’5” London who has drawn comparisons to Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall will be the immediate number one.
I’ve taken multiple 8th round shares of London, but even at his current 6th round ADP I’m still willing to buy. The USC product has shown the ability make contested catches down the field and win underneath while creating yards after the catch. He and Kyle Pitts should be the unquestioned focus of the Atlanta offense.
With the NFL schedule being announced tonight the Best Ball action will only continue to heat up on Underdog Fantasy. If you want to join in on the fun, get a first time deposit match up to $100 with our code DFSARMY. See you in the draft room!