UFC Vegas 54 DraftKings DFS Review. Picks & Strategy

UFC Vegas 54 DraftKings DFS Review. Picks & Strategy

Well, well, well, what a disappointing weekend it was, well not totally, I won my money back at least. However, it could have been so much better!!!

Geek The Oracle

Of course, I am being a smart ass calling Geek “The oracle.” I just wanted to put that as the title because I was asking him questions one time, and his response was, “I think, but I am not an oracle.”

Why didn’t I look at his notes and follow his all-in-play?!!

Another reason you are missing out if you aren’t in the army unless you are like me and don’t listen well, then sometimes you still miss out 🙁

Here is what Geek said going into the fight

I’m going into this expecting a first-round finish from Ion. The way I see this playing out, Ion will come out like a wild man. Spann has been finished before. Ion has the only takedown game as well. I love the ITD odds on this fight, and I’m going ALL IN. Spann is live to land his signature guillotine when Ion goes for his takedowns, so he’s someone I’ll get hedge exposure to. I’ll have one or the other in every lineup this week.

Learning From Mistakes

I won’t say that I blindly take expert takes and move on, as much more goes into my research than taking others’ picks and moving on. However, I always talk about our cheat sheets because they will lead you in the right direction if you discern through and use their takes to guide your lineup building.

Monday Morning Quarterback

Who likes someone who says, “Well, if I had done this, I definitely would have won?” What if it does not count!

However, it is a powerful tool for reflection and growth. Looking back at my work this weekend, if I had taken more time to read through the takes and saw that this was Geek’s all-in-the-fight, I would have had more of Spann (I had him at 18%), ultimately leading to a better score.

Backtesting: What did we learn?

Nuts Score: 587.63

My Original Top Score: 552.86

Below is the outline that was used for UFC 54:

• 150 Lineups
• 25% Randomization 
• Ownership Cap 100% (Manipulate to take ownership)
• 3-4 Fades
• One Stud 80% Ownership
• Two unique Players
• Optimal Mode 

Due to the Geek take not being used and smacking me in the face this weekend, my first adjustment made Spann’s ownership 35%. 

New Score: 576.57

While we did not hit the nuts, 576.57 is close enough to win us some money this week. You needed a score of 587.63 to win the Mini-Max this past weekend.

More Adjustments

The 585.48 scores were needed to win the Mini-Max, so there was still work to do with the Backtesting. There was a lot of tinkering, which was about an hour, but we finally found the solution. I was able to eventually hit the nuts by adding in the following:

• Multiply the projected ownership of my personal favorite in the main and multiply it by 2.
• The play was Blachowicz (projected 40%)
• Blachowicz elevated to 80% in 150
• Also, stacking rule added to main to allow both fighters in 10% of the 150

**Also, I Capped the following fighters at 25% to get more Blachowicz. The following was my adjusted ownership of those fighters:

1. Maximov 25%
2. Patrick 20%
3. Rakic 13%
4. Ribas 13%

Adjusted Score: 587.63

Before getting out of here, I wanted to include some things we got right. Below are some of the takes from the article last week, as it is important to remember what we got right just as much as what we got wrong:

Maximov (9300) Vs. Petroski (6900)

The pricing speaks for itself here as Petroski is the rightful underdog at a +280 line. However, locking Maximov and moving on may not be the move here, as while Petroski is the dog, he does show some specific upside that makes him worth considering in multiple entries.

Petroski has won his last two with a score of 108 and a score of 116 on DK, which would ultimately ensure he lands in the nuts if he can replicate that score in this matchup as he is 6900. Likewise, those wins for Petroski came by finish, and this fight has a +100 tag not to go the distance.

What does this tell us? (UFC Vegas 54. DFS Mass-Multi Entry Approach/Slate Breakdown)

Vegas thinks the fight will end early, + Petroski’s previous wins have been by finish= Petroski deserves elevated ownership based on the numbers.

While I do not advise going all-in on a 6900 fighter, I think the factors mentioned above make him a fighter worth investment, especially on a card such as this which lacks value. Therefore, both fighters will be owned more by Maximov, but Petroski will be held above his projected 15% ownership.

Rakic (8700) Vs. Blachowicz (7500)

This is a five-round fight and is -110 to go over 3.5 rounds which helps improve the likelihood of fighters scoring well. Blachowicz is a 39-year-old fighter going against a contender in Rakic. However, Blachhowicz has an impressive win over Israel Adesanya, which recently happened in 2021. Likewise, Rakic has been a machine, most recently running through Thiago Santos and Anthony Smith (Both Decision). Therefore, this fight makes to be a fun main event as both fighters bring their respective strengths.

While some claim the Izzy win was a fluke for Blachowicz, note that it went all the way to the decision. However, he was then submitted by  Glover Teixeira in his next fight. This was ultimately the loss of the title for Blachowicz.

At 7500, Blachowicz could take this fight the distance and accumulate a triple-digit score. Furthermore, he has the experience and has fought quality opponents, making me like him even more as a dog player.

Therefore, Blachowicz and Rakic should be owned in multiple lineups, but consideration should elevate the dog’s ownership.

Therefore, this article provides insight into things we have gotten right and what we got wrong to align ourselves better to get another takedown this year!! After all, it is all about developing an approach that can repeat tournament takedowns.

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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