NASCAR, PGA, UFC DFS: MME Optimizer Setup

UFC PGA NASCAR DFS

Developing Cross-Over Principles

Before this year, my main focus as a DFS player was Football. However, after joining the army, I realized all the untapped fun/money I was missing out on, limiting myself to one sport. Likewise, I began exploring the different channels in our discord and stumbled across the MMA Channel. As I read through the comments, I thought, “well, I could see this being pretty fun,” so I started playing 150 in the Mini-Max on every UFC card.

Around this same time, I met @choppodong, and he showed me how to use the DS effectively to get me off and running. I began writing about my work as I saw significant progress but did not have a takedown YET!

The first Takedown

As I continued to grow in my writing and playing, Geek noticed some areas I could enhance my game, improving the report we provide you all at DFSA. Therefore, we were able to get together, and he showed me the process of Backtesting, which was one of the best things that could have happened to my game. After learning to backtest, I began running backtests on all UFC slates following the most recent rule changes. I was able to get 60 slates of data from Backtesting, and I used the information to formulate an all-inclusive approach for attacking MMA DFS.

Following the generation of this initial approach, I was able to take down the Mini-Max that week, which immediately led to me being hooked on MMA. Furthermore, the last thing Geek left me with was him saying to me, “Don’t sleep on PGA and NASCAR.” That suggestion was the origin of this transferrable approach.

UFC/PGA/NASCAR/DFS Cross-Over #1: Backtesting Matters!

What is Backtesting?

If you go to the Domination Station, you will see three tabs; a tab should be titled Backtest. Backtesting is simply reviewing scores from previous slates as the players’ final points from the game are included in the Domination Station. This is important because it allows you to compare things, including how a player was projected vs. how they did. Also, for example, want to know how many top-priced players are in the nuts over the past 20 slates? This is where you backtest, as it will allow you to collect data on how consistently those players in that price range fall into the nuts lineup.

Regardless of the sport you play in DFS; Backtesting should be a regular practice if you are grinding on your game to become the best player you can be.

I have evolved my game by creating a sound approach for Backtesting and recording data. The video provided below will help further educate you on how to backtest correctly. Furthermore, I remember Geek saying, “You are not serious if you are not Backtesting.” What a simple but profound statement for all those trying to take down a tournament and find the nuts. Therefore, I wanted to share some user-friendly strategies for Backtesting as it would be a disservice not to provide you with a framework to work off of as you work to develop a consistent system of your own.

Backtest Tips:

• Open a Spreadsheet and Title it
• Run A backtest and set it to “Final Pts.”
• Collect the top 3 possible scores
• Record 3 top scores at the top
• Run a Raw backtest for:
• 100%,75%, 50%, 25% Max Exposure
• Record Scores from Raw
• Test out different theories using the backtest to analyze what it takes to get to the nuts
• Confused?? Jump in the discord, and someone will break it down for you! 

UFC/PGA/NASCAR/DFS Cross-Over #2: Embrace Variance!

Setting up The Domination Station to Embrace the Variance

When I first began playing in ME Tournaments (20 LUS or more), I was scared of the randomization feature when using the optimizer. Why, you ask? Because psychologically, I believed randomizing would make me miss the nuts lineup from things being too shaken up; however, I realize now that is far from the case when utilizing randomization…

What is Variance?

Variance by definition means ” fact or quality of being different, divergent, or inconsistent.” The word that stands out in this definition is inconsistent. This is important to consider with the three sports we are working on developing a comprehensive system for. PGA, MMA, & NASCAR are incompatible sports in terms of winners but leave room for many outliers and underperforming outings for players you are using to build your lineups.

NBA DFS Example

For example, Jokic has a very predictable range of scoring for DFS as basketball players develop average performances and consistently achieve around those ranges. This makes NBA more predictable and harder to win because you, I am not unique in knowing the sport is predictable for DFS, which, you guessed it…. makes it much harder to take down a tournament in NBA.

Variance With PGA, NASCAR, & UFC DFS

For DFS, specifically playing M.E tournaments, variance in sports may help a player by utilizing various tools to account for the night’s volatility. This leads us to the discussion of randomization; randomization will enable you to take your pool of players and ensure the players are well mixed in lineups. This is helpful because if a player can consistently get a strong player pool in the top 5% of tournaments, the variance and randomization can eventually lead to a big takedown due to embracing how unpredictable the sports are.

UFC Example (Lemos Vs. Andrade)

Romanov was THE TOP TICKET guy Vs. Chase Sherman. However, the volatile nature of UFC struck many of our lineups down as the fight was canceled post lock. It would be best if you did not try to account for this extreme case from week to week, but it shines a light on the sorts of things that happen with the big three we are writing on (NASCAR, PGA, UFC).

PGA Example (Mexico Open: 4/28)

Last weekend, how many of us would have called that a 7300 Brandon Wu would have the second-highest DK score at 5% ownership? You got it, not many of us clearly as he was only 5% owned. This is important to consider as underdog performances happen weekly in three sports. Again, we are talking about events occurring that a lot of the field is not accounting for.

NASCAR Example (Cup Duramax Drydene 400 at Dover: 5/1)

Ricky Stenhouse was 7k on DK and finished as the 6th highest scorer in DK with 58.6 ftpts. Stenhouse was 6% owned, so again, another excellent example of how the sport’s high variance can be related to one another when building an ME tournament system.

Variance & Randomization

Finally, the examples above bring us back to the intent of this work which is to build a transferrable system between the three sports. As you can see, we can take the Variance with these sports and associate them with the randomization feature on the Domination Station to better account for those possible performances when building a strong player pool.

I am providing you with an article previously written by Upperslad, which better explains what we mean when discussing the randomization feature in the Domination Station (It is NFL, but still applicable).

UFC/PGA/NASCAR/DFS Cross-Over #3: The Research Station!

The research station at DFSA is one of the most comprehensive sources of data that I have seen across the industry. NASCAR, PGA, & UFC all have research stations, and personally, those are the first things I look at when building my pool of players. The research station is not another person’s take on the fight, match, or race, but rather what the data says about the players you are looking for. While all the sports have a research station, each sport has its data collection to help build lineups and player pools.

PGA Research Station

For PGA, one who is new to DFS could limit what they look at to each golfer’s course history and their recent performances. This will allow someone to see a person’s history, which can help you find a low-priced/low owned high upside piece for your tournament. Going back to the example mentioned above of Brandon Wu, if you looked at the research station, you would have seen he recently had a 3rd place finish in his recent form, which tells us he is showing the capability to finish well. Furthermore, he had additional performances of 33rd finish place and 28th finish place, further adding to his player appeal.

This is a strong strategy for all skill levels because we are talking about numbers instead of opinions. Let’s face it, we all want to feel like we know the sport we are playing and can predict the future, but is that the best way to play? Going just on our takes or expert takes?

Again, we have many stud players here at DFSA, but I think any one of them would tell you that you cannot depend solely on your or another person’s takes. The best way to attack this is a blend of expert takes and the data that surrounds the sport. All my stats majors reading this, we all know “Everything regresses to the mean.” Therefore, we would be doing a disservice to ourselves if we didn’t at least open the research station and start taking advantage of those two pieces of data. Therefore, for PGA, a great way to start the research is to open up the research station and look at the data surrounding these two categories you will find for PGA specifically:

• Recent Form

• Course History

NASCAR Research Station

This is another one that I think will benefit you best if you start with a couple of items and expand from there. Like PGA, using the track history and the driver’s recent performances will help develop a data-driven approach to building a player pool. Again, this is essential as it keeps us from relying on someone else’s or our understanding of a sport. If we could predict the future, there would be many ties for top prizes every day. Therefore, at the risk of overcomplicating this, we will use Track History and Recent Track Races.

These two features will give you insight into the driver’s history and recent performances to better develop a pool capable of winning you some money. Research Station categories to utilize as you start the M.E approach to NASCAR DFS:

• Track History 
• Recent Track Races

UFC Research Station

This is the one I wanted to save for the end, as the UFC Research Station is unique to the two sports we covered above. For simplicity, we will use four categories to help us develop a player pool. For this system, we will start with utilizing the SS/R, TD/R, KO Percent, and Decision Percent, as these four categories can help us create a clear picture of a fighter. SS/R is the significant strike average per round, but typically, the TD/R can help a lot as this is the takedown rate for a soldier, which tends to score better than strike. However, both should be considered and looked at as you can find a lot of underdogs who may have advantages in these two categories which aren’t accounted for by the field.

The decision and KO will help you find those dogs you want to invest in. For example, you may find a person who is 6900 but he has a 60% KO rate. Combine that with researching the favorite and possibly seeing some KO losses they have suffered; you are now making an educated pick on the dogs you want to have more ownership of in an M.E DFS contest.

• SS/R
• TD/R
• KO %
• Decision %

Pulling it Together

Above, you have been provided a blueprint for using the research station, as all of the data can be overwhelming. I hope that this practical approach to the research station serves as a framework to be built onto by each player.

The goal is achieved if you start with what I have written and move toward your approach based on it! We aren’t baking cookies, so cookie cutting is not the move in DFS.

UFC/PGA/NASCAR/DFS Cross-Over #4: Use the Cheat Sheets

This will be the same for all three sports, as we will hedge off our picks with the expert analysis before each slate begins. Also, pay attention to the confidence level marked for each cheat sheet using a Star rating system (1-5). Using this will help you hedge out your pool and narrow things down.

For example, you may be at 22 players in your collection but need to get to 20. This is where you can use the cheat sheet to help you find your last two fades. Therefore, for this system, open the cheat sheet up after you have gone through the data from the research station and allow the expert opinions to help you narrow down your pool

**Hint: For fading, the coaches put FADE next to players they will be fading. Very helpful!

Finally! The Approach itself

We have spoken about the different tools we can use for any three sports covered today. To sum everything up, you can use these four simple principles as you begin building your pools for mass entry tournaments:

1. Please make sure you are Backtesting and reviewing previous slates to keep up with the rapid changes in each sport-related to DFS.

2. Embrace the Variance: Don’t fight it! It will be there! Let’s use some randomization and account for the randomness that is DFS.

3. Research station first to help get baseline data.

4. Hedge off with the expert takes using DFSA Cheat Sheets

Here is a framework that can be used for Mass Entry Tournaments (20 or more entries)

150 Tournament Lineups

The cheat sheet, as well as the Research Station, are used to execute the following steps: 

• Fade duds using the Cheatsheet notes
• Research Station for Value
• Player pool of 20-22
• Cap All ownership at 40% and 80% Core Plays (Cheatsheet can help here)
• 25% Randomization
• two unique
• No Locks

20-60 Tournament Lineups

The cheat sheet, as well as the Research Station, are used to execute the following steps: 

• Fade duds using the Cheatsheet notes
• Research Station for Value
• Player pool of 18-20
• Cap All ownership at 40% and 80% Core Plays (Cheatsheet can help here)
• 25% Randomization
• two unique
• No Locks

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

Pricing for DFS Army VIP
Coupon Code for 10% off DFLGENO

UFC PGA NASCAR DFS