UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Working On Consistency

The goal is to create a repeatable system for taking down tournaments in UFC DFS, but honestly? It has been pretty rough lately. This caused me to explore and wonder how I could reshape my thinking to take down tournaments or win money even on bad nights, or at least be in the position to…

So I reached out to Scott Neuman, one of the Army studs and MLB DFS Beast!! Again, how many places can you join and individually talk to professionals? Just saying… 

I asked many questions, specifically about how he does not believe in fading guys or creating player pools. He said, “Remember, the computer is typically smarter than a person.” I thought that made so much sense as he went on to say, “Let the computer fade who it wants and set up the system.”

So, that is precisely what I did, and you know how I did it? That’s right, Backtesting. Using this same approach across the past five slates, I could land within 15 pts or in the nuts with each run. While this is a small sample, it shows promise of consistency. Therefore, I am excited to be testing out the following approach in real-time:

• 200 Lineups
• 10% Randomization 
• Ownership Cap 100% (Manipulate to take ownership)
• One Fade 
• No Locks
• One-two fights 10% for both fighters 
• Two-Three dogs 10-20% above field ownership
• One – Two unique Players
• Optimal Mode 
• Marley 5 Star fight favorite fighter gets a 😍
• Marley 4 Star fight favorite receives a ❤️

As you can see, I took Scott’s advice and blended it with my thoughts and studies from other top players. Scott makes a great point about locking guys, and it is handcuffing you. So, I decided to do away with the lock and let the DS tell me how much I wanted of those studs.

Therefore, outside of my ownership notes above, all other fighters can be capped at 100% besides those fights you want 10% capped. Finally, you will see I had to fade one; I just like the idea of getting turds out. So, I thought this would be a practical compromise as it backtested well. Remember, this is a framework; feel free to put it in and then play with it to make it how you want.

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Reference:

Cheat Sheets.

Research Station

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Turd of the Week

Morales (7300) Vs. Martinez(8900)

This striking battle is -195 to go to decision, which tells us this could be a low-scoring fight. Therefore this will be a dog or pass, making Martinez the week’s fade as he has not scored over 100 ftpts since 2020.

Four Favorite Fighters

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

• Park 9000 
• Pereira 8200
• Medic 7800
• Colares 8600

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Holm (9100) Vs. Vieira(7100)

This is an intriguing main event as there is an outside chance that Holm could get a late finish, but more than likely, she receives a decision if she wins. Similarly, her last two fights against Veira & Aldana have resulted in decision wins. Furthermore, her last fight against Aldana was a 5 round fight, and she managed to score 128.6. Therefore, in another five-round fight as the favorite, Holm is someone worth investing in across multiple lineups.

However, she is not an all-in play as she has a propensity to score low in her victories as she is more of a slow-paced fighter, averaging 92.53 pts over her last four wins, which at her price may not pay off.

Furthermore, on the other side of this, Vieira is a live dog as she comes in with impressive wins over Meisha Tate and Sijara Eubanks (Decision wins for both). She has a history of some KO victories, but she is primarily a decision machine with around 85 ftpts over her past four wins, including the five-round fight against Tate (83.9).

 

Almeida(9400) Vs. Porter (6800)

Either side could win here; Almeida is superior and a great talent, but he is fighting up, which puts him at a disadvantage. I am not saying bet the house on Porter, but I think ownership should be had on porter at 10-20% above the projected field ownership. Porter is a much larger fighter, which COULD make a difference, but we do not know.

Therefore, this will be a fight that I invest heavily in, with both fighters being 10-20% above projected field ownership, as either way, this fight scores well. Almedia is suitable for a KO here, and that is Porter’s best method of victory.

Park (9000) Vs. Anders (7200)

Both fighters come in with their best shot of winning by decision (Anders +330, Park +120). Additionally, Park is the favorite here and priced at 9000, but he is only a -195 favorite against a competent Anders. The fight is -210 to go over 2.5 rounds w/ Park, also having a +350 tag to get a KO/TKO/DQ.

Park has scored 128, 77, and 93 ftpts over his last three wins, showing he can score will in decision wins as all those fights went the distance. Also, he has at least two takedowns in each of those wins, which increases his upside in DK scoring. On the contrary, Park was finished in his last two losses, which shows he is vulnerable to being a let down here.

If you read above, my information is contradictory, but this is fighting. Anyone can win. Therefore, the dog has a real shot in this fight to get a KO, but Park IS the rightful favorite. Another fight I will be investing heavily in, with most of that going towards Park.

Holmes (8800) Vs. Amedovski (7400)

I like the favorite in this one to generate more of my ownership as Holmes comes is +250 to get a KO/TKO/DQ, and the fight is -280 not to go the distance. Amedovski has lost two straight and does not bring much upside to the battle, but it is fighting, and dogs win all the time…

Therefore, the move here will be overweight on Holmes as I think he is a strong DFS player at this price tag and below the field ownership of Amedovski.

O. Moralles (8400) Vs. Medic(7800)

Moralles is a decision fighter, with all of his last four wins coming by decision, with relatively low output as he did not score over 80 pts in any of those wins. However, Morales is +200 to get a finish, and Medic is +240 for a KO, which tells us the books like this to end early (Good for DK scoring).

Therefore, looking at those tight lines and the history of the favorite, I may be matching the field with the favorite and elevating dog ownership in this fight.

Njokuani (8700) Vs. Todorovic(7500)

Njokuani seems to be the better play in this one coming in as a -240 favorite in a fight that is -225 not to make it to a decision. Furthermore, Njokuani is +110 to land a KO/TKO/DQ and scored 130 ftpts over Barriault in February at his 8,000 DK price tag.

Todorovic has gone 2-2 in his last four fights, with KO victories for his wins. However, he was finished in one of his losses, making him vulnerable to getting caught by Njokuani. Despite this possibility, Todorovic can get a KO himself here as he comes in with a  +600 price to get a win under 1.5.

Therefore, both sides of this fight are appealing, with the favorite being much safer. However, both will be owned at the field level or higher.  Ownership for the fighters will depend on projected field ownership.

Colares (8600) Vs. Hooper (7600)

Hooper has not shown much upside and comes in from a year off; as Cody Saftic pointed out in the Dog or Pass podcast, “Everything with Hooper is what if because he has not shown much thus far.” He also referred to him as the lowest ticket bet. Therefore, I will take that same logic and make hooper one of my lowest owned fighters on the card.

Colares is a decent play for his price but traditionally does not score well in his decision wins, with all scoring below 80 ftpts in DK. However, he is the favorite with a +350 KO and +450 Submission price tag, telling us the finish is not out of the question here.

Reed (8500) Vs. Hughes (7700)

Not a very good fight for DFS; neither fighter scores well as they both have low volume and weak wrestling. I will cap both fighters at 10% to ensure they don’t get too many of my 200.

Ricci (8300) Vs. Viana (7900)

Ricci is the rightful favorite as she has one 5 of her last 6, with her only loss coming by KO to Fiorot (9-1). She can get a finish by submission or KO with a +400 price tag to land a submission here. Also, the fight is +100 to not go the distance, with Ricci having a -135 tag to win. So, ownership will be had on Ricci here at an elevated rate as a Submission or Decision with sound output is in the realms of outcomes for Ricci, who has a generous 8300 DK Price.

Pereira (8200) Vs. Ponzinibbio(8000)

Pereira comes in on a three-fight winning streak, highlighting his recent improvement as a fighter. Known for being wreckless, Pereira’s head was on the metaphorical chopping block. Wreckless made it always enjoyable, but he is a new fighter now with more ring IQ. Therefore, his KO prop is +350, which some say is a steal as he still has quite a bit of KO potential, but since his new approach, he has had three decision wins in a row.

**Note to consider is that over his last four wins, he does have a submission victory against Zelim Imadaev, showing his potential to get a finish.

Ponzinibbio is a dog pick, but the line is close as he comes in with a +110 price tag, further demonstrating that this fight may be a toss-up. Furthermore, Ponzinibbio comes in with wins over Neil Magny and Miguel Baeza (Some say not that good). However, he has dropped two of his last three. He is still priced close enough that getting both sides of this fight in multiple entries would be a good idea with the dog here getting field level as Ponzinibio consistently lands in the 90 ftpt range over his recent wins.

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Conclusion

I hope this can help get you headed in the right direction or offer new ideas for those attempting to make some money in Multi-entries. Suppose you have any questions regarding UFC Vegas 55. DFS MME Breakdown, please reach out. I made significant changes with the DS set-up this week and hope it pays off.

-Special thanks to Scott Neumann for giving me great advice on tournament approaches!

Happy hunting, everyone, and thank you for reading!!!

UFC 55 DFS Picks & Strategy

Thanks for hanging in, and feel free to reach out with any questions!

Talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people.

Twitter: @therealgc9

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