Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/27:
Apr 19, 2022; Seattle, Washington, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jon Gray (22) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Verlander – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- Verlander stands out as the top pitching option on the slate against a weak Seattle team in a pitcher’s park. They have an implied run total of just three and Verlander has a 26.3% strikeout rate on the season.
- Shane Bieber – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- I just love the price tag on Bieber against Detroit. His ceiling is huge and has at least 18 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, he looks like a great cheaper SP1 option, or if you have the money to pay up for him as your SP2.
- Jon Gray – Carnage Report ranking TBD
- Alright… hear me out. The price tag is WAY down on Gray after being in the $8-9k range over his last few starts. I’m going to continue to stream pitchers against this Oakland lineup and think Gray looks like a nice value option.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Colorado Rockies (-105) @ Washington Nationals (-112)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll start in Washington where Austin Gomber will get to match up against this Nationals offense. Gomber hasn’t been great to start the season, but he hasn’t been terrible either and he gets a nice matchup against a below-average offense outside of Juan Soto. The one issue with the Nationals is they’re pretty good at mitigating strikeouts, so he’ll be more of a secondary SP2 option for me on nearly a full main slate. Aaron Sanchez will start for the Nats and even though he gets the Rockies away from Coors, he has a 7.16 ERA on the season and will be a guy I’ll pretty easily avoid here.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Connor Joe
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: The Rockies will look like a nice stack here against a weak pitcher with the wind projected to be blowing out to left-center.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Lane Thomas
GPP Note: More of a mini-stack for me, I just don’t like how weak this lineup gets toward the bottom of the order.
Baltimore Orioles (+170) @ Boston Red Sox (-205)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Kyle Bradish will start for the Orioles against a red-hot Red Sox offense that comes in with an implied run total of nearly six at home. The wind will be blowing out and I’m going to ride the heater with the Sox here, so no Bradish for me as a pitching option. Garrett Whitlock will get the ball for Boston against a weaker Baltimore lineup but has really struggled recently. I think he’s a fine tournament option as an SP2 option, but I wouldn’t touch him for cash games.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Trey Mancini, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: I don’t think we need to go to the Orioles here, but I won’t talk you off of them in tournaments.
BOS 5-star plays: Trevor Story, Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Kike Hernandez
GPP Note: It’s tough not to like Boston here, they’ll be a top stack on this slate for me.
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Cleveland Guardians (-175) @ Detroit Tigers (+148)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Shane Bieber will take the mound for Cleveland in this one and gets a great matchup against Detroit on the road. He’s had at least seven strikeouts in back-to-back games and would expect his 24.1% strikeout rate to positively regress back up to his career average of around 30%, he’s a guy I want a lot of in this spot. Alex Faedo will start for the Tigers and is a fine option at his price tag if you’re looking for a more expensive stack and need a spend-down value SP2.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario
GPP Note: Just leverage or a hedge stack against who I view as the best pitcher on the early slate.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Javier Baez
GPP Note: I like Bieber quite a bit here, so I don’t see much of a reason to get to the Tigers.
Philadelphia Phillies (+119) @ New York Mets (-136)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Zach Eflin will start for the Phillies as they head into New York. It appears there’s a pretty good chance of rain in this one, so keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates and if it’s clear for pitching. If it’s clear, I do think Eflin is in play as a pitching option, he has at least 18 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has looked great. Carlos Carrasco had a nice bounce-back game last time out and has looked good as well. The Phillies do scare me at times with the amount of firepower they have in the lineup but still looks like a solid option in all formats.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: I think I would lean to more of one-offs or a mini-stack as opposed to a full stack on the Phillies here.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Franciso Lindor, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: Similar to the Phillies, more of one-offs and mini-stacks here.
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New York Yankees (+103) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-122)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees had a nice game last time out but this Rays team can be pesky. That said, they are striking out at a 23.3% rate on the season, so I do think Taillon is worth a look here. Jeffrey Springs will start for the Rays and probably isn’t a guy I’d look to get all that much of here. He is coming off of a nice start and this Yankees lineup is banged up and shorthanded, but I think we can find better options.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: I think the Yankees are shorthanded enough to where I don’t want to full-stack them, especially on the road.
TBR 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: I’m not really thrilled about stacking against Taillon, so more of a tournament stack than anything.
Miami Marlins (+131) @ Atlanta Braves (-155)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Trevor Rogers will start for the Marlins and has really had a tough go of it this season after a really good year last year. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 20.9% from 28.5% in 2021 and probably isn’t a guy I want to get to until he shows signs of life and especially not against this Braves lineup. Speaking of the Braves, they’ll send Ian Anderson to the mound and will likely be a guy I get to in all formats. He hasn’t been great this season, but I do like the matchup and think he provides a nice floor at the very least.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Anderson probably isn’t a guy I’ll look to stack against due to his ability to limit big innings.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson, William Contreras
GPP Note: The Braves look like a great stack here against a scuffling Rogers at home.
Kansas City Royals (+155) @ Minnesota Twins (-181)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Brad Keller will take the mound for the Royals here and has been fine enough considering his price tag. He has 11 DraftKings points in four of his last five games with at least seven innings pitched in three of those games, I think we could do worse at this price tag if we are looking for a cheap SP2 option. Meanwhile, Bailey Ober will start for the Twins and will look like a nice option as well, I don’t have any faith in this Royals lineup to be able to produce.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: I guess you can go here if you need a cheap stack, but they’ve been pretty inept offensively.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco
GPP Note: I think this Twins stack could be sneaky and overlooked by the public who will look to Boston and Atlanta.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Brandon Woodruff will get the start for Milwaukee against a Cardinals team that has looked lost against righties at points this season. Woodruff has at least 21.1 DraftKings points in three of his last four and looks like a nice option despite his 4.77 ERA. Dakota Hudson will start for the Cardinals and just doesn’t have enough upside for me to want to get to him as a pitching option on a big slate like this one.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Luis Urias, Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: There are pieces of this Milwaukee stack that feel too cheap and make sense in all formats to me with high ceiling guys like Yelich, Tellez, and even Urias.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: I don’t have a ton of interest in attacking Woodruff, especially against this Cardinals lineup that can drop off pretty quickly.
Toronto Blue Jays (-110) @ Los Angeles Angels (-105)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Alek Manoah will get the ball for the Jays in this one as he heads into Los Angeles to take on this Angels lineup. Manoah has been elite this season with a 1.62 ERA and a 22.3% strikeout rate. I don’t love the matchup against this Angels offense but I tend to lean with pitching when it’s good like we have here and he gets a boost with Ohtani likely out of this lineup after pitching on Thursday night. Chase Silseth will start for the Angels and has looked solid in his two starts this season… this Jays team can be pretty hit or miss but I don’t know that Silseth is a guy I want to ride my lineups out with.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: I like the firepower we get in this Toronto lineup, but it can be very hit or miss with how young it is. I still like the stack quite a bit.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Brandon Marsh, Anthony Rendon
GPP Note: I’m not stacking against Manoah, but don’t have any issue with one-offs.
Houston Astros (-200) @ Seattle Mariners (+167)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Justin Verlander will take us into Seattle and will look like an elite pitching option in all formats. This Seattle team has not been good offensively outside of Julio Rodriguez who has been their one bright spot. Verlander will be a guy I want to get to if I can on this slate, he has at least 22 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is an elite spot here. The Mariners will send Chris Flexen to the mound and won’t be a guy I want to roster against this Astros lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordon Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: The only thing keeping me off the Astros as a top stack is the ballpark, but they’re helped out by getting guaranteed 9th inning at-bats at the very least.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: I don’t see the need to target Verlander here.
Texas Rangers (-139) @ Oakland Athletics (+119)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Jon Gray will start for the Rangers and is going to be a guy I at least consider here. I’ve been targeting pitchers against the Athletics all season long and this won’t be a spot where I want to stop that. It feels like we’ve been chasing the potential upside on Jon Gray for a few years now but this price tag is REALLY nice from what we’re used to seeing on him. He looks like a great value option for an SP2. Cole Irvin will start for the Athletics and looks fine here, but I’d rather just save the salary and go down to Gray in a better matchup.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Mitch Garver
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager
GPP Note: I think the Rangers could be sneaky here, but I hate the ballpark for offenses.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I hate this Athletics lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-187) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+157)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Ryan Pepiot will get the start for the Dodgers and this Dbacks lineup isn’t one that scares me one bit. The issue for Pepiot is the price tag, if I’m going up to this price range I would much rather get to guys like Woodruff, Bieber, and Manaea. Madison Bumgarner will get the ball for Arizona in a tough matchup with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been bad this season with a 2.76 ERA but isn’t the greatest DFS option due to his 16.2% strikeout rate. I’d rather go with Gray in this price range, this Dodgers stack will look great.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Chris Taylor
GPP Note: The Dodgers look like a great stack against a weak lefty.
ARI 5-star plays: Daulton Varsho
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I could see this Arizona stack being sneaky and Pepiot hasn’t been shut down at all to start the season.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+170) @ San Diego Padres (-200)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out this slate with Jose Quintana and the Pirates heading into San Diego. Quintana has been sneaky good this season and is a guy I could see someone making a case for here. He probably won’t make the cut for me just because of the other pitching options on the slate, but I won’t take you off of him. Sean Manaea will start for the Padres and looks like a great option at the top of pitching tonight. He has a 27.6% strikeout rate on the season and this Pirates offense is pretty terrible.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: I’ll have too much interest in Manaea for me to like the Pirates in this spot.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: None
GPP Note: I don’t love the Padres here, Quintana has proved to be pretty solid to start the season.
Stacks of the Day: All Slates
- Boston Red Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – MLB Cheat Sheets
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