Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/26:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Martin Perez
- Tarik Skubal
- Frankie Montas
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Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Mitch White
D’Backs – Humberto Castellanos
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I wouldn’t be shocked if White gets to bypass the 65-70 pitch mark in this spot. The issue is that the D’Backs offense is surprising right now, with a ton of power and potency. I like this game to play over as I see the Dodgers getting back to being hot on offense. I have no idea why Roberts decided to give Betts the day off yesterday with how hot he has been and the offense took the day off as well.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Will Smith, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals (-125)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Wainwright at home is somebody that is ALWAYS on my radar. Lauer has been striking guys out at a higher rate this year and that’s intriguing but I also worry about a match-up with a team that is very strong against LHPs. I want to spend some time on this game today, in order to get a true feel because right now I can see a very wide range of fantasy outcomes.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (-185)
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Smeltzer just shut down this KC squad, albeit without a single strikeout. He gets the call after Joe Ryan was placed on the COVID list yesterday. If he’s going to allow plenty of contact, I am not sure I love the spot. Lynch struggled against this MIN team in that game started by Smeltzer and I want to go back to the Twins, despite the fact they have failed me a few times over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: MJ Melendez, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Kyle Garlick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals (-120)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get to watch two struggling pitchers take the mound in this one. At some point I expect Marquez to get things going in the right direction while Corbin continues to just be lost. I have said it before and I will continue to say it going forward, the World Series run for the Nationals ruined Patrick Corbin as a starting pitcher. I love the Rockies RH power bats plus McMahon (great history against Corbin) in this spot.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .098 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Juan Soto, Keibert Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last week.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves (-120)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This match-up is very similar to the MIL-STL one for me in that I can see a wide range of outcomes. Both of the SPs in this game have the capability to be dominant but I do lean more towards the over. Nola is a guy who I generally only play when he’s pitching at home and Wright has had some hiccups so far in May. This one might just end up as a sneaky game stack spot for GPPs.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels (-145)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to go right back to the Angels offense but I really HATE how much they have been striking out. If Ward returns to the leadoff spot, I think they have a shot at a nice game because they need that RHB at the top against Ryu. Ohtani is capable of shutting down any team he faces but there are a couple of Jays bats that have hit him hard. Probably ends up a game that I lean more towards one-offs from.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics (-125)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
Athletics – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. We get a premier SP match-up for the main slate tonight! Wait, what did I just type? Martin Perez is part of a premier pitching match-up at the MLB level, in 2022? I must not be feeling well. We can’t deny how well Perez has thrown the baseball in 2022 and he takes on an offense that we have been targeting with SPs all season long. Montas is an absolute beast on the mound and since he’s favored, we HAVE to be all about him with his upside. Despite being the underdog, I think that Perez is the safer of the two SPs in this one.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie, Chad Pinder
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-130) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am really interested to see how Cortes performs in this spot. I think there is some added pressure on him with the lineup being short handed and the bullpen just being in shambles, outside of Holmes. We have been expecting some regression from Cortes for weeks now so I have to stick to that but he’s slowly winning me over. Yarbrough isn’t somebody that scares me, it’s just a matter of the Yankees putting out a decent lineup against him.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox (-115)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I expected more runs between these two teams on Wednesday so I am going to go right back to the runs wagon. Both SPs have been around a long time and are capable of getting destroyed by RHBs. I would not be shocked to see the total get to 9.5 by the time first pitch happens. Devers is always in play, no matter if it’s an LHP or RHP on the mound.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .302 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: AJ Pollock
4-star plays: Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
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Chicago Cubs (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. Steele is an arm that I love using when the price is right because he has starts like his last time out. He really goes under the radar against weaker offenses. Greene is capable of racking up Ks but he’s also capable of allowing 3 HRs to RHBs any time he takes the mound. He has a bright future with his big time arm so I could certainly see a GPP winning performance.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Frank Schwindel, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .215 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aristides Aquino, Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers (-140)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Konner Pilkington
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love this SP match-up and it might go somewhat overlooked today. Pilkington isn’t anything spectacular but he did pick up a bunch of K’s in his last spot start appearance. He’s just min-priced on DK and that has been very intrigued. Skubal is always on my short list because of his K upside. I wish he wasn’t so expensive on DK but the match-up interests me a ton. I honestly would not be shocked to see both SPs in GPP winning lineups on DK tonight.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Los Angeles Angels
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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