Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split-slate day today, with two fewer games than we normally get on a Wednesday. Fortunately there are still 13 others to choose from, so let’s dig in and see what we have to work with!
A look at pitchers
Though it is a split-slate day, things look pretty similar for each set of games. There are some in good spots and some that are in bad spots, some cheap pitchers that look interesting, some that I think are a little overpriced for their matchup, and a few that I don’t think will make it more than an inning or two. So long as the weather holds out, we should have some good cash game options regardless of which games we’re playing. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slates
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the Rockies and Pirates, with Feltner and Thompson on the mound. We get a modest 7.5 total here, which we’ll see several more times today. While they do have this one split pretty closely down the middle, I think I’ll give a slight edge to the visitors.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Blackmon/McMahon, Cron
GPP note – A mostly average matchup for these bats, with a slight edge in power given up to the righties. Thompson’s strikeout rate is fairly low, so there should be at least a few good opportunities here.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Reynolds/Hayes, Gamel
GPP note – Feltner looks capable of picking up some strikeouts but gave up some good power to lefties, so attacking him from there isn’t out of the question.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Garcia and the Tigers taking on Bundy and the Twins. As of early this morning we have some weather concerns, so keep a close eye on this one as the day progresses, should you decide to play a slate with this game on it. Should they proceed as scheduled, I think it’s easy to give this one to the Twins.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – Not quite as bad of a matchup as they had yesterday, but Bundy can rack up some strikeouts when he’s on. I’d go with smaller exposure if you go here.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Sanchz, Kepler/Polanco
GPP note – Garcia doesn’t stay in too long but he tends to hold down the fort pretty well while he’s pitching. That’ll probably give these guys 1-3 dud innings, so you’ll have to go after the bullpen if you choose these bats.
New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Szapucki and the Mets face Junis and the Giants next, and instead of questionable weather, we get a pitcher making his 2022 debut. It’s never a terrible idea to make some hedge moves in these situations, especially when they’re so cheap, as they could quickly become the pitcher we need with a surprise first appearance.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Alonso
GPP note – Not a super great matchup, but Junis does allow some power to lefties and he’s been allowing more hits as of late.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Yastrzemski, Flores/Ruf
GPP note – It’s a new pitcher so who knows what we’ll get, but several of these guys are hitting lefties for power, so you can stack here.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
We’ll head to the other side of the country for our next game, with Urias and the Dodgers taking on Fedde and the Nationals. There aren’t too many surprises here, as the Dodgers are favored in this game with an 8.5 total. It’s hard to disagree with Vegas with this matchup.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Muncy
GPP note – Another good spot for these guys, Fedde allows good contact and can’t seem to keep runners off of the bases. Stack however you desire.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – It’s hard to want to stack here, though Urias does allow some decent power to both sides of the plate, which keeps the usual Soto/Bell duo in play.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
We’ll head right back out west for our next one, with Ashby and the Brewers taking on Darvish and the Padres. Our second 7.5 total, both pitchers are pretty similar in terms of being a bit unpredictable, so I think an argument could be made for some hedge action on all four sides of this one.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Yelich/Tellez, Wong
GPP note – Darvish can run up a nice score for himself, but his allowed hits are still up there and these guys are hitting righties well. This would be a good spot to hedge, as both sides have a good ceiling.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Profar
GPP note – Ashby tends to be all over the place, though he can get some strikeouts and doesn’t allow a ton to righties. He has reverse splits working against him though, so don’t be afraid to take some lefties here.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
Another 7.5 total awaits us in our next game, which will feature Blackburn and the Athletics taking on Ray and the Mariners. Both pitchers surely have some upside and generally a solid floor, but I do think at least a small handful of bats will have some decent opportunities here. It’s probably not a game to go overboard on with the offenses, though.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Murphy/Neuse
GPP note – Overall Ray is a fairly tough target for these guys, though he does allow a decent chunk of power to righties. Taking 1-2 of them against him isn’t the worst way to go against the grain.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 3.5 star plays – Winker/France/Suarez
GPP note – An okay matchup for the lefties, but nothing overly exciting.
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Main slate
Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll move on to the main slate, starting with Poteet and the Marlins taking on Rasmussen and the Rays. Another 7.5 total, I think this will be another ‘under’ game like what we saw yesterday. It’s not a good matchup for the Marlins, and even though Poteet is cheap, he’s not exactly a gas can, either.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Chisholm
GPP note – Another tough matchup for an unexciting offense…meh.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Kiermaier
GPP note – He’s cheap but Poteet hasn’t been allowing a whole heck of a lot, and I could see him navigating 2-4 innings here with minimal damage. That could really hurt the upside of this offense.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Another game with some weather concerns, we get Hendricks and the Cubs taking on Castillo and the Reds. As long as they do play, I think both offenses are interesting, so keep an eye on the DFSA weather channel as the day chugs along.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Happ/Ortega
GPP note – Tough matchup for the righties, but Castillo has allowed a fair share to lefties, so you can attack him from that side.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Moustakas, Drury/Nquin
GPP note – Hendricks’ struggles continue, and seeing as these bats aren’t completely dead right now, it could be a spot for them to get something going. The lefties have the better matchup, though Hendricks is allowing power to both sides of the plate.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Up next we have Wells and the Orioles taking on Sears and the Yankees. I don’t think there are any surprises here, so I’d approach these two the same way you always would.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander
GPP note – We don’t have much to go off of with Sears, as he’s only pitched two innings, but these guys aren’t really smashing lefties anyway.
Yankees 5 star plays – Judge
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo
GPP note – Wells has his good moments but these bats are smashing righties, so I don’t know that he’ll go unscathed here. As usual, these guys are worth looking at and will surely draw plenty of ownership.
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Suarez and the Phillies take on Morton and the Braves next, with an 8.5 total and questionable weather on the horizon. If they get to play, things look pretty good for the home team, so let’s hope mother nature is in a good mood today.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Segura
GPP note – Morton is a pricey brand-name pitcher who is allowing high xwOBA to both sides of the plate (as well as a lot of power to lefties). Ownership shouldn’t be too high here, but there’s certainly some potential for this offense, so consider taking a few stacks.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Olson
GPP note – Suarez has allowed a ton to righties, and this team is full of potent right-handed batters. I could see these guys having a solid game, so get some exposure here.
Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros
Up next we have the Guardians and Astros, with Quantrill and Javier as our starters. This feels pretty similar to the previous game, just without those pesky weather concerns. Anyway, I agree with Vegas again here, and I think this could be a decent spot for the Astros to grab a good chunk of fantasy points for us.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 3.5 star plays – Ramirez
GPP note – A tough matchup for these batters who have almost zero experience against Javier. It’s hard to recommend any sort of big stack here.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Altuve, Tucker/Bregman/Brantley
GPP note – Facing a decent pitcher will hopefully keep their ownership down some, because this looks to be a spot where these guys could get some good hits in. Both sides of the plate are in play here.
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
We aren’t out of the woods yet, as we have another game with some potential weather concerns. For this game, we have Hill and the Red Sox taking on Giolito and the White Sox. After yesterday’s game, the home team might just hope that the rain starts up and doesn’t let off, but we’ll see how the day goes.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 3.5 star plays – Devers, Martinez
GPP note – A tough matchup for these guys, though that didn’t slow them down at all yesterday. I think people will be torn between jumping on them here after a big game or fading them in hopes that they drop a dud today. You can pick a side or hedge to give yourself a shot either way.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Robert/Anderson/Abreu
GPP note – An “okay” spot for all of these righties, I’d imagine these guys will want to come out swinging to make up for yesterday’s blowout loss.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with Otto and the Rangers taking on Detmers and the Angels. We get an 8.5 total here, though I was expecting at least a 9. It’ll be interesting to see where this one goes throughout the day, considering this is a matchup where the Angels could cover the over on their own.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager
GPP note – Another pitcher that seems to be up-and-down, Detmers has flashed some serious upside but also allows a good chunk of power to lefties, so don’t be afraid to take a few shots against him while hedging with him in some other lineups.
Angels 5 star plays – Trout/Ohtani
Angels 4 star plays – Walsh/Rendon
GPP note – Very nice spot for these guys, so I expect to see fireworks going off late into the night. Stacks of any size are welcomed here.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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