Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/14:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Zac Gallen
- Chris Bassitt
- Cristian Javier
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-185)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. After watching the first two games of this series, it’s tough to admit that I like the pitching in this game. We know how strong Urias can be at home but most don’t realize the struggles that the Dodgers have offensively against LHPs on the season. I am really curious to see which side wins out tonight, the LHPs or the hot offenses.
PHI 5-star plays: Jean Segura
4-star plays: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves (-130)
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Morton looked like he figured a few things out in his last start but he had been rough prior to that. The walks are still an issue and that’s a dangerous thing against an opportunistic offense like the Padres. Manaea started the season hot for the Padres but has had some struggles of late. I think he’s capable of some success against this Braves offense.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. A few of the Reds’ bats have picked it up recently so they are in a sneaky spot for us today. Castillo looked decent at times in his first start so I expect him to put it together in this one. I still have no desire to actually watch this series as both teams are run so poorly (from a front-office standpoint).
CIN 5-star plays: Mike Moustakas
4-star plays: Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-130) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Smeltzer making his MLB season debut after a few strong starts and one really bad one in AAA. He isn’t going to rack up many K’s at all so he’s probably avoidable. Bieber hasn’t been Cy Young Bieber yet but he also hasn’t been terrible. This game feels like a bunch of one-off options for GPP purposes.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Myles Straw
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Max Kepler, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-170) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be honest, we need to be on the Astros while they are winning all of these games. It’s also not very profitable to target the bats of their opponents during this stretch where they are basically allowing 1 run per game. Yordan is an absolute beast at the plate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies (-160)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10.5. So much for the first game in Coors fade numbers last night, sheesh! I love the Rockies’ match-up against Hernandez but I am tempted to go with a very underweight approach again today as I think we see even more ownership on these teams after last night. With that being said, I wouldn’t be shocked if guys like Benintendi, Witt Jr, Cron, or Daza are in GPP winning builds.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Yonathan Daza
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-140) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I am torn on what to do with Lauer. I am not sure I can jump on the bandwagon at this point, I might just have to stay committed to expecting regression. Rogers has big-time upside but he also offers the MIL offense a little bit of blow-up ability. I lean towards this game staying low-scoring so I prefer mini-stacks from both sides.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels (-120) @ Oakland Athletics – Game 1
Pitchers:
Angels – Jhonathan Diaz
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Diaz is an interesting option after looking solid, but unspectacular in his first start. His walks are an issue but he gets a very plus match-up. Blackburn has been pretty damn solid for OAK but I expect a little regression at some point and the Angels are a team that it should come against.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 against LHPs this season.
Los Angeles Angels (-175) @ Oakland Athletics – Game 2
Pitchers:
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
A’s – Adam Oller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. With this being game 2 of a double-header, we have to remember that the lineups are going to be a little different as they juggle which guys get a game off. I hope the game 2 lineup is more potent than the game 1, as the LAA bats get a very nice match-up in game 2.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 against RHPs this season.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: Team ISO of .072 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Rich Hill
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Red Sox bats woke up last night and I could see them continuing against Otto. The issue here is that they just haven’t shown any kind of consistency yet this season. Hill has been surprisingly strong and I believe he is no longer expected to be followed by a long reliever. I do think that LHPs are a strong way to attack Texas while Garver is hurt and Semien is struggling.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
4-star plays: Rafael Devers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nick Solak
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Hyun-Jin Ryu
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have been racking my brain for 20 minutes trying to decide on this game. Both of these SPs have been pretty bad to begin the 2022 season. Ryu is the bigger surprise but I might have to play the wait-and-see game before I use him in anything, at this point. I am really tempted to make Hernandez my Dinger of the Day play but the issue is he has 10 Ks over his last 19 ABs.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-160) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
White Sox – Dallas Keuchel
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We could see some absolute fireworks from the Yankees against the artist formerly known as Cy Young Dallas Keuchel. They have 13 HRs over their last 7 games, with Judge, Stanton, Torres, and Donaldson accounting for 12. Montgomery is always capable of putting up GPP winning numbers but I expect the White Sox offense to wake up soon, especially against an LHP.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets (-170)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kirby looked absolutely filthy in his debut while Bassitt has been spectacular for the Mets so far. If you have read my work over the last few years, you know how highly I think of Bassitt. He continues to get better and better, even after that horrendous line drive to the head last season. I have no desire to stack either side but might be talked into a one-off or two, especially in cash games with a bat-like Nimmo.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Ty France
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals (-115)
Pitchers:
Giants – Jakob Junis
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. I feel like this is a game I should be interested in but I am not all that excited to stack up either side. Generally when I get that feeling, I kind of just skip the game in my builds. Both sides have bats that are capable of going off at any time but it’s a game that doesn’t have any match-ups that stand out to me.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Lamonte Wade, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Juan Yepez, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .184 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-150)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gallen has looked like the guy that I thought he was becoming a few seasons ago after the D’Backs traded Jazz Chisholm for him. Hendricks never excites me but then he shows up with gems, randomly. I will be stacking the D’Backs side because they’ve shown some life offensively over the last couple of weeks.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .095 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Josh Rojas, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers (-120)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Tigers – Michael Pineda
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to use bats from this game but I am so worried about mediocre performances, all around. The issue is that I can see both SPs doing enough to be solid but unspectacular because both offenses are well below-average. I think the best route is to take a few shares of each SP and then get some mini-stacks in your builds of each offense (Mullins-Mancini might be a GPP-winning combo).
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willi Castro, Derek Hill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .054 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Angels
- Colorado Rockies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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