Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 05/15:
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 207.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
We’ll kick this slate game off with the Bucks as they head into Boston to try and steal game seven. It sounds like Khris Middleton is getting close to returning but ultimately was ruled out for this one, meaning we’ll likely see Grayson Allen in the starting lineup again. I played a good amount of Allen and Pat Connaughton last time out and both are guys I like going back to here, the Bucks need the shooting from these two as the Celtics crash in on Giannis and Holiday in the lane. Speaking of Giannis Antetokounmpo, he has at least 61 DraftKings points in four straight games including an 80-point performance last time out. If you can find the money for him here, I would force him in unless you think Luka is the better spend-up option, but we’ll get to that. Jrue Holiday had a bit of a down game last time out but still looked solid and is going to put up a bunch of shots with Middleton still out, he’s a great option in all formats. Bobby Portis now has at least 28 minutes in back-to-back games and I would expect more of that here as the Bucks have really struggled with giving up open shots with Lopez in there with Robert Williams out which keeps Lopez in the paint with him. Speaking of Brook Lopez, he’d be a guy I’m more likely to get to if Williams started again, but still a tournament-only option in hopes he can get hot from three-point range. From the Celtics, Robert Williams will come into this one as questionable after missing the past two games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’m kind of thinking he’ll play just due to this being a win-or-go-home game and that’s how I’ll break this one down. If he does play, I would have no issue going right back to him and would think he plays around 25ish minutes. Jayson Tatum went crazy last time out and now has at least 52 DraftKings points in three straight games and will play all the minutes he can handle here. He finally shot better last time out and will be someone I want to go right back to. Jaylen Brown will be another guy we can look to go to, he can be volatile at times but has a nice ceiling as they head back into Boston. Al Horford came down to Earth a bit over his last two games as the Bucks have stopped letting him have wide-open shots, it also helps that Tatum flat out took over last game. Marcus Smart is a fine option as well, he’s priced right about where he should be and is a solid secondary piece. If Rob Williams is back I would expect Grant Williams to go back to the bench and has really struggled over his past three games. He should still see 25+ minutes off of the bench, but I can’t say I love the price tag at this point. Then we can round this team out with Derrick White who has played important minutes for them over their last three games and has produced nicely at a cheap price tag. He’ll look like a serviceable value option in this one.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday
4-star play: Robert Williams, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen
Deeper Value: Derrick White, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews
GPP Sleeper: Grant Williams, Derrick White, Grayson Allen, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaught, Wesley Matthews
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win earlier in the season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 205.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -6.0
We’ll start this game off with the Mavericks who will be the road dog as they also look to steal game seven in Phoenix. Luka Doncic continues to look great and will need to carry this team, it will be him and Giannis as your spend-up options here, I personally prefer Giannis for a little extra money, but I don’t think you can go wrong with either of them. Jalen Brunson sees a -3.9% usage rate and about 0.15 fantasy point per minute decrease with Luka on the floor but he’s this team’s second option right now and will look like a solid option again as he has for most of the series. Spencer Dinwiddie is finally getting to a price point where I think we can feel more comfortable playing him. He’s just going to struggle with usage as most of his minutes come next to Luka and he’s a guy that needs a higher usage rate to be productive, he’ll be a tournament option at best for me. Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are pretty similar to me, we know they’re both going to play all the minutes they can handle and will look like nice filler options for your rosters. Finney-Smith has cooled off over his last two games but got into quick foul trouble last time out, I have no problem going right back to him here, the minutes will be there. Dwight Powell actually showed some production last game and should continue to start here, he’s a fine GPP value option but not someone I want to prioritize, he’s been pretty bad in this series. Maxi Kleber is my preferred big man on the team but his minutes have come down over their last two games as well… that being said, if he gets off to a hot shooting start, his minutes ceiling is pretty large. I had more Davis Bertans than I care to admit last slate and it didn’t end up going so well… however, he’s another one of those guys that will get more minutes if he’s hitting his shots, so will be in play as a value option in tournaments to get up to Giannis and Luka. From the Suns, Devin Booker has continued to be a consistent option who will provide a nice ceiling, he’ll look like a great option again in all formats. He has a 32.2% usage rate with 1.25 fantasy points per minute on the season. Chris Paul continues to struggle and has now been held under 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, I’m almost at the point where I’ll need to see it from him before I go back at this price tag. Deandre Ayton continues to show great consistency and will look like a good option again here as Dallas is not a good rebounding team and will be a guy I go right back to. Mikal Bridges has been great this postseason and we know the minutes will be there for him, very solid mid-range option. Then we can round this team out with Jae Crowder and Cam Johnson who will look like solid secondary pieces at their respective price tags, both can get hot from behind the three-point line at any given moment. Crowder has struggled over his last two games but struggled with fouls in both of them, I have no issue going back to him here. One thing I do want to note is that Bismack Biyombo has been the backup five over the past two games and I think they like his pick and roll defense better than JaVale McGee’s, so if you’re going to need a value center from this team, it will be Biyombo for me.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Devin Booker
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: Dwight Powell, Davis Bertans, Bismack Biyombo, Landry Shamet
GPP Sleeper: Spencer Dinwiddie, Maxi Kleber, Davis Bertans, Dwight Powell, Chris Paul, Bismack Biyombo, Landry Shamet
I need to give VIP Member “TTG2436” a massive shoutout for his $100k takedown earlier in the season, congrats man! Our NBA Domination Station lineup optimizer is Powered by DFS Army proprietary projections. The Domination Station will help you create 150 of the highest projected lineups in a matter of minutes. With features that allow you to Like Love or Dislike a player, you can create a fully unique pool of players to generate your lineups from every day. Combine the power of the Domination Station with our VIP Only Articles and the NBA Research Station to really take your game to the next level.
NBA Lock of the Day: Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK – $12.0k; FD – $12.0k)
It’s not exactly a sneaky lock of the day, but Giannis is going to do everything for the Bucks today as we saw last game where he went for 80 fantasy points. We’ll need to find some value to make it work, but I’m going to do what I can to get to Giannis in a win-or-go-home game. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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