DFS Army’s Gthom breaks down three running back groups who should be drafted with heavy caution.
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Aug 8, 2019; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin (37) scores a touchdown during the second half Atlanta Falcons at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Houston Texans’ Running Backs
Running Backs Currently on Roster
- Marlon Mack
- Rex Burkhead
- Dameon Pierce (R)
- Dare Ogunbowale
The Texans were not a good team in 2021 and that looks to carry over into 2022, though I admit they should be a little better. Last season was a rotating door for running backs and it should be more of the same this year.
David Johnson broke camp last year at the top of the depth chart. Despite this he was not the leader in running back touches for his team. That was Rex Burkhead who tallied 147 opportunities. Johnson had 99 touches and Royce Freeman touched the ball 66 times (two other players had eight touches each).
Looking at the size of this rushing pie as a unit in 2021, Houston averaged 24.7 carries per-game. This was 24th-best in the league. Houston’s backs only got the ball into the end zone eight total times on the ground. Surprisingly their team run percentage was 41.58-percent, 14th-best in the NFL.
For 2022’s outlook, Marlon Mack will seemingly do the early down work. Mack is a (presently) declining 26 year-old who is still trying to prove his worth since tearing his achilles in 2020. Rex Burkhead found himself ending 2021 as a flex-worthy player that never felt safe to start. Dameon Pierce is a rookie-fourth-rounder who may mix into 2022’s plans, but he will likely get more involved as the season progress. Ogunbowale likely rides the pine the most out of this group, but he easily could be thrust into more work if there are any injuries to this group.
The Texans will find themselves behind in games and that tends to favor the passing attack for fantasy. Therefore scoring touchdowns on the ground, or lack thereof, is the biggest issue with the Texans’ backs. Only 25.81-percent of the teams’ touchdowns were on the ground last season and I see that continuing. It also does not help that Houston is below average in terms of total targets to the running back position, further devaluing their position group.
We know that we will see at least two running backs mixed into this rotation. There easily could be a third back involved, and as mentioned earlier, that may be the rookie as the season progresses. Even if you feel that one running back could be the answer, the size of the pie is too small to count on for fantasy.
Check out Four Players “Ascending” or “Pretending” in 2022 Fantasy Football
Philadelphia Eagles’ Running Backs
Running Backs Currently on Roster:
- Miles Sanders
- Boston Scott
- Kenneth Gainwell
- Jason Huntley
The Eagles look like a dominate running back group on paper. In 2021. Philly led the league in rushing percentage, tallying 49.87-percent. This equated to 31.5 rushing attempts per-game, second-best in the NFL. However a lot of these stats were inflated by the running tendency of Jalen Hurts. When isolating the running back group, it will be hard to trust any option week-to-week in 2022.
Milers Sanders headlined this group with 163 opportunities but somehow scored zero touchdowns despite rushing the ball in 55-percent of the team’s running back attempts. Kenneth Gainwell finished with one opportunity more than Boston Scott, they respectively tallied 101 touches with six touchdowns and 100 opportunities with seven touchdowns. Jason Huntley mixed in another 13 touches as well.
What we know about running quarterbacks is that running backs score less touchdowns. Factor in the Eagles’ legitimate three-man running back rotation and you’ll never know which player to start, that’s a problem for fantasy managers. In season-long leagues, namely redraft, you need players who contribute and consistently contribute. Low-end, all-or-nothing players usually hurt managers, not help them.
Obviously this group of backs still remains on roster for the 2022 season. This likely means more of the same for this group. If anything, the rushing plays from this offense could become less for the backs. Clearly the Eagles are invested into the passing game: they traded for A.J. Brown, signed Dallas Goedert long term, and drafted DaVonte Smith in the first-round in 2021.
The Exception:
I will take a look at Miles Sanders in fantasy drafts. He is currently going off the board as RB26 on Underdog and that is on par with his expected finish if he stayed healthy in 2021. Remember, Sanders had zero touchdowns on 163 touches. If he gets the same amount of opportunities in the coming season he has upside. I am willing to bet Sanders will score touchdowns in 2022, the rest of his workload will be victim to the running back rotation. This is a value-based addition only, do not reach for Sanders.
Check out DFSArmy’s “Way Too” Early 12-Team Mock Draft
Miami Dolphins’ Running Backs
Running Backs Currently on Roster:
- Chase Edmonds
- Raheem Mostert
- Sony Michel
- Myles Gaskin
With a new head coach in Miami, we instantly saw multiple signings at the running back position. So much so, this position group was a near-complete turnover. Only Myles Gaskin remains on roster from the previous season.
Looking back to Miami’s running usage in 2021. There was an average of 26 carries per-game, a middling amount compared to all teams. Only 40.29-percent of the team’s plays featured a rush attempt. Total rushing touchdowns scored reached 12, however three were from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and one was from wide receiver Jaylen Waddle; this leaves eight touchdowns scored by running backs.
Admittedly I feel that the run percentage of Miami will increase with their new head coach in 2022. He comes from Kyle Shanahan’s system in San Francisco. Last season the 49ers ran the ball in 48.39-percent of the total team plays.
Despite an expected increase with Miami’s rushing attempts, there are four running backs on this roster that could be featured. All four had quality roles for their teams in 2021, with at least 150 touches (except Raheem Mostert, injured).
Myles Gaskin saw 222 opportunities last season. Sony Michel tallied 229 touches with the Rams. Chase Edmonds saw the least with 159 touches in Arizona but he only played 12 games. Finally, Raheem Mostert was plagued with injuries but he’s broke camp as the lead back in San Francisco for the last two seasons.
Early in the season could be the worst part of this running back group It is possible the coaches will play the hottest hand. The only moderately safe back seems to be Chase Edmonds and unless you are playing a PPR format of some-sort, he also gets risky. Oddly enough, Gaskin, who led Miami in touches in 2021 seems to be at the bottom of the depth chart.
The Exception:
As aforementioned, in PPR formats I will consider Chase Edmonds. He is a much better pass catcher than Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel and Myles Gaskin. This role seems to be secure with Edmonds and he is going around the RB35 spot on Underdog. He is not a player to reach for, value-addition for half or full PPR leagues only.
Mostert is another I would consider as my last pick of fantasy drafts. There is no denying that Mostert can electrify an offense when healthy, but health is a serious red-flag with him. I prefer him in best ball formats when compared to redraft. He is another Miami back you should not reach for.
MORE FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYSIS FROM GTHOM
Analysis & Outlooks:
Four Players “Ascending” or “Pretending” in 2022 Fantasy Football
“Way Too” Early Mock Drafts:
Early Redraft Rankings:
- QB rankings 1-12
- RB rankings 1-6 and RB rankings 7-12
- WR rankings 1-6 and WR rankings 7-12
- TE rankings 1-6 and TE rankings 7-12
Follow Gthom on the cesspool they call twitter, @GarettThomas.