UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade. DFS approach.

We have a fun one coming up this Saturday for UFC Fight Night: Andrade Vs. Lemos. This slate has a lot of high-priced fighters on it that you could make an argument for playing in UFC DFS. However, instead of beating our heads against the wall, we will look at each fight individually as we prepare to play DFS on this card.

UFC Fight Night: Andrade Vs. Lemos

This is another slate where I will put a majority of the emphasis on sniffing out those turds and removing them from my pool. I hope to have a solid collection of 20 players to work with for this week’s slate.

A combination of the Research Station, Coach’s Cheat Sheets, and the Domination Station were utilized to help create this content. Join now and start dominating UFC DFS this week!!!

Fades for the Week: 

• Sherman (6600)
• Barber (9000)
• Else (7100)

MMA Disclaimer:

I am not a sports bettor, so my props to consider are related to DFS scoring. If I have put support next to a fighter, it is because I feel it will help contribute to building lineups.

UFC Fight Night: Andrade (8900) Vs. Lemos (7300)

Andrade is the rightful favorite here at UFC Fight  Night. She has the experience and has fought several quality opponents. She recently landed a finish in round 1 against Cynthia Calvillo with a 9-2 record. Also, with a +175 tag on landing a TKO/KO/DQ, the books like the potential of a finish here for Andrade. With the fight being five rounds, a decision to win heavily in volume could also be a path for Andrade to win and hit value at 8900. However, before writing off the dog in this one, Lemos is worthy of a closer look.

The record can trick someone who is not looking close enough, as Lemos could be confused for a young fighter with an 11-1 record. However, Lemos is, in fact, 34 years old, which dismisses the narrative of Andrade aging out and losing to a younger fighter. However, Lemos most recently managed to win again Angela Hill, who is now 13-10 and has a history of fighting competitive opponents. What is concerning here is that several experts believed that Hill was the rightful winning of that fight. Nevertheless, Lemos still managed to finish a 10-1 Montserrat Ruiz with a KO victory and preceded that with a TKO win against a 14-2 Livinha Souza.

Therefore, both sides are worth ownership here in large 60-300, w/ more request going towards the favorite. On the contrary, an argument could be made to split both fighters’ ownership evenly. Regardless, both fighters are priced well enough to hit value easily; however, the edge in this one goes to experience, with Andrade being the pick.

Fighters	Andrade	Lemos
Record	22-9	11-1
Prop to Consider	+175 KO/TKO/DQ	+350 KO/TKO/DQ
M/L	-200	+170
% Of Highest Winning Method	36% KO	22% KO
TD/R	1	0.4
SS/R	31.2	26.8

 

UFC Fight Night: De La Rosa (7200) Vs. Barber (9000)

Barber is potentially a fade here depending on your approach to DFS (SE, MME, etc.), as there are several worlds where she loses this fight or wins and does not hit value. Also, De La Rosa is a live dog here as Barber has shown to be inconsistent, specifically in losing 2 of her most recent fights by the decision to Grasso and Modafferi. Therefore, even in 150-300, the dog is worth more ownership than the favorite.

Furthermore, on the De La Rosa side, she has three paths to victory as she has shown the ability to win by KO, Sub, and decision. De La Rosa landed three submission wins in a row at one point in her career, showing her ability to hit value at this price tag. She recently finished a 14-7 Ariane Lipski in round 2, scoring 111.4 pts in DK. Also, before that fight, she scored 59 ftpts in a losing effort to Bueno Silva. With that being said, the pick for DFS purposes will be De La Rosa. However, there is merit in getting below the field ownership in Barber, as her achieving a quality fantasy score is not out of the realm of outcomes.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Barber	Rosa
Record	9-2	12-6
Prop to Consider	+110 Decision	+200 KO
M/L	-180	+150
% Of Highest Winning Method	45% Decision	27% Decision
TD/R	0.8	0.5
SS/R	14.4	23.4

UFC Fight Night: Barry(9500) Vs. Jackson (6700)

There is not much to speak to here on this fight as it will be Barry or pass. Jackson does not have any realistic paths to victory in this one, and the lines speak for themselves. For example, Jackson is +1400 KO/TKO/DQ, which is his most likely path to victory IF he could pull off a miracle. No puncher’s chance, no more thinking about it, Barry, and move on.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Barry	Jackson
Record	4-1	0-1
Prop to Consider	-165 KO/TKO/DQ	+1400 KO/TKO/DQ
M/L	-1125	+700
% Of Highest Winning Method	61% KO	7% KO
TD/R	0.2	0.3
SS/R	20	21.3

UFC Fight Night: AoriqiLeng (9100) Vs. Else (7100)

This is another one where the favorite is worth a majority of the ownership when you invest in it. Else could also be considered a fade candidate. Some may be reading this and thinking, “wow, very confident in a guy who is 0-2 in the UFC”. However, he lost to Jeff Molina and Cody Durden in decision losses, which is nothing to be ashamed of as they have a combined record of 21-5. Therefore, they may be giving him a gift in Else here for his tough road to begin.

Else does not bring much here to make a person want to invest heavily in him as he is currently 10-5 with a TKO loss to Kyler Phillips at the beginning of round 2. Before that TKO, Else had been finished by Weeden and Ed Arthur, making him a prime candidate to go night-night in this spot.

Therefore, Else’s susceptibility to a KO combined with Aoriqileng’s strong showings in losing efforts to two competent fighters makes this one Aoriqileng or pass.

**Also, notice that Else shows no statistical advantage over Aoriqileng in grappling or on the feet (TD/R, SS/R)

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Aoriqileng	Else
Record	10-5	20-11
Prop to Consider	+275 Submission	+450 KO/TKO/DQ
M/L	-235	+190
% Of Highest Winning Method	41% KO	18% KO
TD/R	0.7	0
SS/R	30.2	9.6

UFC Fight Night: Pedro ( 9300) Vs. Villanueva (6900)

Pedro is coming back off of a lay-off here, and it looks like they are giving him a warm-up walk-over opponent in Ike Villanueva. Again, we are not looking for winners; we are looking for scorers. Therefore, we need to look at this match before saying Pedro or pass.

At a 9300 price tag, Pedro is also a -560 favorite and -130 to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Also, he is -135 to win in RD1! So let’s do some math here and say the books are correct:

• TKO RD 1 Win= 90 pts 
• 1 Knock Down= 10 pts 
• 20 significant Strikes= 4 pts

After looking at the math, it makes sense to invest in Pedro as the above scenario is if he manages to win in round 1 by TKO; however, he could also get a quick finish here (65 seconds in), which scores +25 ftpts! Therefore, Pedro will be worth investing in, and Villanueva gets the fade.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Pedro	Villanueva
Record	18-13	7-3
Prop to Consider	-115 KO/TKO/DQ	+700 KO/TKO/DQ
M/L	-630	+450
% Of Highest Winning Method	52% KO	12% KO
TD/R	0.3	0.3
SS/R	13.5	21.3

UFC Fight Night: Barriault (8600) Vs. Wright (7600)

The lines in this one are close, suggesting this fight is a pick-em. The value here is the 7600 fighter, he also is +700 to win by KO/TKO in Rd 1, and at 7600, this would score well. Also, Wright is an attacker, and he is aggressive; if he can get an early finish, he could end up with that 25 pt early finish bonus mentioned above.

However, Barriault is the slight favorite in this one and has a +165 tag to win by KO/TKO/DQ, suggesting he could land a finish himself. Also, if he can weather the Wright storm, that makes this +165 even more appealing as I see Wright gassing out here if he doesn’t get a finish early. I imagine the betting market is looking at this one’s live odds after the fight goes over 3 minutes. Therefore, both fighters are worth investing in, and both could have cases made for them receiving more ownership than the other. However, Wright appears to be the value here regarding pricing and ceiling.

Fighters	Barriault	Wright
Record	13-5	12-2
Prop to Consider	+165 KO/TKO/DQ	+700 Submission
M/L	-180	155
% Of Highest Winning Method	37% KO	22% KO
TD/R	0.1	0.2
SS/R	29.1	40.5

UFC Fight Night: Guida (8200) Vs. Puelles (8000)

Pick them here, and for DFS, both players deserve ownership in multiple entries as both fighters could manage to end up in a winning lineup with a loss as both fighters can generate strong. For example, Puelles could land a sub here in Rd 3 to a Guida who takes him down multiple times in the fight before this (5 pts per TD), helping him generate a score over 60 in a losing effort. While that is an example of something that could happen, the fight could also be highly dull and involve a lot of time in guard, not doing much for either fighter. Therefore, the war is worth investing in both sides, but moderation is encouraged when approaching this one.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Guida	Puelles
Record	37-21	11-2
Prop to Consider	+150 Decision	+240 Decision
M/L	-110	-110
% Of Highest Winning Method	38% Decision	28% Decision
TD/R	1.1	1
SS/R	12.7	10.4

UFC Fight Night: Romanov (9600) Vs. Sherman (6600)

Romanov will be an excellent tournament play as his ability to finish, combined with his takedown and special skills, make him have a great ceiling! Furthermore, Romanov has shown his power to end and fight a whole fight in his last four wins, with 3 KO/TKO wins and one split decision against a tough Juan Espino. Romanov is looking like an absolute stud here, and the more he fights, the more confidence is developed in him.

Therefore, they are feeding him a win here by giving him a 15-9 Shermann, who has lost 4 of his last five fights, with 3 being decisions and one being submission. It will be Romanov here, and he may be a great play to have highly owned in 150-300.

UFC Fight Night: Lemos Vs. Andrade

Fighters	Romanov	Sherman
Record	15-0	15-9
Prop to Consider	N/A	N/A
M/L	-1375	+800
% of Highest Win Method	N/A	N/A
TD/R	1.9	0
SS/R	21.8	31.0