Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- Kyle Gibson
- Miles Mikolas
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Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We saw Burnes struggle a bit on Thursday with his command. That could happen with a lot of the SPs over the first week of the season. The Brewers struck out plenty against Hendricks on Thursday so Steele might provide enough upside. Woodruff should be fairly popular unless the wind ends up blowing straight out.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Renfroe has traditionally mashed LHPs.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Happ looked extremely confident at the plate against Burnes.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-170)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Yankees -Luis Severino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Pivetta gave up 5 HRs in his 15.2 spring innings but he did strike out 22. Severino is a key piece of the Yankees’ rotation as they are praying he is finally healthy. The issue here is that he was NOT sharp, at all in the spring. He was actually hit around and he walked more hitters than he struck out. I wouldn’t be shocked by another double-digit run game between these two.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Martinez is 7 for 18 against Severino
NYY 5-star plays: Josh Donaldson
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: The three guys above are 12 for 39 with 5 HRs against Pivetta.
Oakland Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies (-200)
Pitchers:
Athletics – Cole Irvin
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9.5. Irvin gave up 10 runs in 14 spring innings. I think he’s a terrible SP at this point but he might have some motivation going against his former team. With that said, the Phillies lineup is extremely dangerous. Gibson was really bad this spring but he takes on what might be the weakest lineup in ALL of baseball. That opening day A’s lineup was something that only a mother could love.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Murphy hit 3rd in game 1 and he has an HR against Gibson in his career.
PHI 5-star plays: Nick Castellanos
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Castellanos has DOMINATED LHPs in his career.
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (-120)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is a tough spot for me to figure out because Plesac is definitely the better pitcher but KC’s lineup is far superior to the Guardians’ in my opinion. Keller was pretty bad in the spring so it does make me want to get some mini-stacks of Cleveland in my GPP builds.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Reyes is 3 for 7 against Keller and I am tempted to make him my Dinger call.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: The Witt-Whit mini-stack should wreak plenty of havoc all season long.
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-240)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Did you know that Jordan Lyles gave up 38 HRs in 2021? That number is bonkers to me because I didn’t think he’d throw enough innings to allow that many. It works out to 1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings. Rasmussen has a plus match-up against a pretty weak BAL lineup and as a massive favorite, he should be fairly popular.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trey Mancini
GPP Note: 4 of the 5 HRs allowed by Rasmussen in 2021 came from RHBs.
TB 5-star plays: Randy Arozarena
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: 24 of the 38 HRs allowed by Lyles in 2021 came from RHBs.
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Chicago White Sox (-145) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Tigers – Casey Mize
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. This is a sneaky good SP match-up as both guys are expected to take a leap forward this season. Cease has been a trendy darkhorse Cy Young pick for this season while Mize looked really strong this spring. I wouldn’t be shocked if this gameplays to the under. I believe that becomes even more likely if the weather is messy again.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: The White Sox are without Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada yet.
DET 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Baez and Schoop are a combined 7 for 20 with 3 HRs and 2 2Bs against Cease.
New York Mets (-150) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Nationals – Joan Adon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. Bassitt was a great pick-up for the Mets and I said that before deGrom got hurt, again. I am shocked to see such a high total with him on the mound for the Mets. There’s some bad blood going here as Mets batters have been hit 4 times already this series, with 2 of them being in the face region.
NYM 5-star plays: Robinson Cano
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Cano has started the season out hot in his return from suspension.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Bell and Cruz are a combined 6 for 14 with 5 extra-base hits against Bassitt.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tony Gonsolin
Rockies – German Marquez
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 11.5. Shockingly, Marquez was far and away better at home in 2021. That seems to be a theme with COL pitchers of late as they have really learned how to pitch in the ballpark. Gonsolin faced COL once in 2021 and struck out 7 across 5.1 shutout innings. That start came in LA so there’s a bit of a difference.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Gavin Lux
GPP Note: Marquez allowed 22 baserunners in 8 innings against the Dodgers last season.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Bryant and Blackmon are 4 for 8 with 4 extra-base hits against Gonsolin.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-170)
Pitchers:
Reds – Vladimir Gutierrez
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 10. My initial thought was wow, the Reds have a team total that feels too high. I then realized that Wright just hasn’t been, right, at the MLB level yet. He flashes legit stuff but he struggles, especially against LHBs. Right-handed hitters have a better average against Gutierrez but he gives up more power to left-handed hitters at this point.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin
GPP Note: I want the LHBs against Wright in this match-up.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Swanson is 4 for 5 with an HR against Gutierrez.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-175)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Keller’s spring performance turned some heads and while he might be figuring things out, I would rather play the wait and see game. Mikolas should be fairly popular because the Pirates lineup is butt cheeks, wait can I say that in here? He doesn’t offer a ton of K upside but he should pick up some clean innings and a victory, in my opinion.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Reynolds is 66 for 18 with 3 2Bs against Mikolas.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Edman is 4 for 9 with 2 BBs against Keller.
Houston Astros (-120) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Astros – Justin Verlander
Angels – Noah Syndergaard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. What an interesting SP match-up on a Saturday night. We get to see Verlander return from Tommy-John and Syndergaard basically return from Tommy-John. Kyle Tucker is having himself a huge night tonight and he’s somebody that can stay hot for a stretch. I would think both SPs are limited to around 5 innings in this start.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez
GPP Note: The Astros offense has awoken tonight with power.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: All 4 of Ohtani’s hits against Verlander have gone for extra bases.
Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins (-145)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8.5. Gilbert is a bit of a reverse split pitcher when it comes to power so I really like the top half of the Minnesota lineup. Sonny Gray should stabilize this Twins rotation and be the ace going forward. He offers some reverse splits as well but I trust him more than Gilbert in this game.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger
GPP Note: Seattle hit 24 HRs in 18 spring training games.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Correa and Buxton are going to be one of my favorite DFS combos all season long.
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San Diego Padres (-160) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Diamondbacks – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9.5. Musgrove was really bad all spring but he gets such a plus match-up that I am torn on what to do. I am leaning on playing him a decent chunk. Davies is an arm that surprises you with his ability to get outs despite not having elite stuff. He isn’t going to rack up much for Ks but if he’s cheap enough, I could see a decent floor across 4-5 innings of work.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Trent Grisham, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Hosmer is 3 for 5 with an HR and 2B against Davies.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Peralta is 5 for 17 with 3 extra-base hits against Musgrove.
Miami Marlins @ San Francisco Giants (-150)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. Much like Friday’s match-up between these two, I really love the SP match-up here. I am curious to see how Rodon builds on his impressive but injury-filled 2021 season. The Giants seem to know what to do with SPs who have flashed tremendous ability. Lopez is a strong pitcher who should flourish in a big ballpark. I don’t see a reason to stack against either pitcher at this point.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: I always love using Soler against LHPs and he hit leadoff on Friday.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Belt is on my shortlist for Dinger calls on Saturday.
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. Dunning has a couple of things that are going against him in this one. He was extremely bad on the road and RHBs hit 9 of the 13 HRs against him in 2021. Gausman should continue to build on his success in SF with a strong offense to back him should he run into some struggles. The Texas lineup is more difficult to handle than last year but they are very strikeout prone, especially the bottom half.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Calhoun is 8 for 24 with 4 extra-base hits against Gausman.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Springer and Gurriel combined to go 22 for 49 this spring.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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