Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 4/7:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Corbin Burnes
- Max Fried
- Adam Wainwright
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Milwaukee Brewers (-175) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Cubs – Kyle Hendricks
Rundown:
This game opens up the MLB season with a total of 10. Honestly, I am really shocked to see MIL as just a -175 favorite at the time of writing. Hendricks gave up 6 HRs in 11.1 spring innings coming into this start. He allowed 20 baserunners in those 11.1 innings. I know spring numbers aren’t the end-all, be-all but they are concerning. Burnes is the reigning Cy Young in the NL and he faces a roster that is a combined 13 for 59 with 26 Ks against him. By far the best SP option on this slate.
MIL 5-star plays: Kolten Wong, Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Wong and McCutchen went a combined 17 for 49 this spring.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: The Cubs are going to struggle a lot this season. Happ will strike out a ton but he is 4 for 12 with an HR against Burnes.
Cleveland Guardians (-130) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Royals – Zack Greinke
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Welcome to the MLB Bobby Witt Jr! Everybody is going to be glued to his debut and probably will have plenty of shares in terms of DFS. He’s too cheap on FD for the pedigree/talent. Andrew Benintendi has absolutely dominated Shane Bieber. Benintendi is 9 for 16 with 5 extra-base hits against the Biebs. I want to take a wait-and-see approach with Bieber as he wasn’t very sharp in his spring innings.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Kwan is my under-the-radar AL ROY bet. It may backfire but the kid can flat out hit.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Salvador Perez
GPP Note: Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be very popular due to his hype as a prospect.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 8. Wainwright gets a dream spot as there should be plenty of energy in the park with Pujols’ return to the lineup. The Cardinals’ bats have been rolling during the spring and they have hit Brubaker really well. I really don’t know what to do with Pirates bats but Reynolds is a strong player, who should go overlooked.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Pirates roster is just 12 for 106 against Wainwright.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Dylan Carlson
GPP Note: Cardinals bats have an OPS of 1.017 in 82 ABs against Brubaker.
New York Mets (-135) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Mets – Tylor Megill
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. This game has some potential weather but I haven’t heard an update. If we get this game to go, there are some sneaky good spots for the Mets while we always need to use Juan Soto in builds. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game goes over the 9 run total, even with the WSH lineup being somewhat questionable.
NYM 5-star plays: Pete Alonso
4-star plays: JD Davis, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Pete Alonso and JD Davis have 8 HRs and 5 2Bs combined against Corbin (59 ABs).
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Nationals bats struck out just 108 times in 15 ST games.
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Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves (-200)
Pitchers:
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Fried should be extremely popular as Cincinnati has what might be the lowest team total on the slate. There should be plenty of energy in the park as the Braves attempt to defend their WS title. The Reds lineup is pretty weak overall but they will be very right-hand heavy.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson
GPP Note: The Reds roster is just 2 for 22 against Fried.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcel Ozuna
GPP Note: All eyes are on Matt Olson in this spot.
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels (-130)
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will go on record and say that Ohtani should see a bit of regression after his historic season. I don’t think it’s a bold statement but people basically think he’s able to walk on water at this point. Valdez is one of my favorites in baseball but I don’t love this match-up as the RHBs of LAA should be in prime position while Walsh (from the left side) has hit him well too.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Tucker and Altuve are a combined 6 for 17 against Ohtani.
LAA 5-star plays: Anthony Rendon
4-star plays: Jo Adell, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Rendon is 5 for 10 with 2 extra-base hits against Valdez.
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San Diego Padres (-155) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitchers:
Padres – Yu Darvish
Diamondbacks – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 9. Darvish has had some issues with Arizona so far, which actually leads me to be interested in the D’Backs in this game. There is some power in the Padres lineup but Bumgarner has fared decently against a portion of their lineup. I wouldn’t be against stacking this game in your builds as I wouldn’t be shocked if this ends up the highest-scoring game of the day.
SD 5-star plays: Luke Voit
4-star plays: Wil Myers, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Myers has 6 HRs in 68 PAs against Bumgarner in his career.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith
GPP Note: The 3 guys above are a combined 20 for 48 with 9 extra-base hits against Darvish.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- St Louis Cardinals
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Nolan Arenado, St Louis Cardinals
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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