In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it is the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS MLB, we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. We are going to be searching for one SP, one IF, and one OF. The type of player we are looking for allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high-salary studs. Sometimes, it will be a high-priced stud in a great spot. The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the day’s Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. For each slate, we will take a deep look at a few players who represent outsized value for that day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slate’s free square of the night.
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Free Square MLB Plays for Tonight…
Mar 25, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Diego Padres first baseman Luke Voit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during spring training at Camelback Ranch-Glendale. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
SP Shane Bieber $8300
CLE @ KC
Max Scherzer would have been the chalk pitcher today. Now that he is no longer starting, all of that ownership will get spread out. Shane Bieber deserves a lot of it. Robbie Ray will be the chalk but there are some concerns regarding whether that game will be played. There are reports that the game will be pushed back to Friday due to the weather. If the Blue Jays do get that game in, Ray would be the free square. I am putting Bieber here because this game does not have those weather concerns. Bieber was the 2020 AL Cy Young award winner. He missed a lot of time in 2021 due to injury. He still showed his Cy Young form when he was on the mound. Now, he is healthy but priced like he is nothing more than a good pitcher. Bieber is elite. He should be 10k+ in most of his starts.
This Kansas City team is right-handed heavy. Bobby Witt Jr. is the only new expected bat to join this lineup. Last year, the Royals did not strike out that much against RHPs. They had a 21.6k% which ranked the 4th-least in the majors. However, this strikeout rate should increase this season. Witt Jr. had a 23.2% K rate in the upper minors. This number should increase in the majors. It likely will take some time for him to get used to MLB pitching. He looks to be a great talent but having to face Bieber is no easy task. Adalberto Mondesi only played 35 games last season. Durability remains a concern but for all the games he can play in, Kansas City’s K rate is going to increase. He struck out 31.6% of the time last season. The Royals had a 86 wRC+ last season which is tied for 5th-worst in the league against RHPs. This is a much better spot than it seems for the former Cy Young winner.
Just missed the cut: Shohei Ohtani, Robbie Ray
1B Luke Voit $3500
SD @ ARI
The new Padre is expected to enter a prime spot in the San Diego lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be out for a while. While that is important for the Padres expected run total, Voit is expected to bat cleanup against the lefty Madison Bumgarner. Voit is not exactly a lefty masher but Bumgarner really gives it up to RHB. This is not the Giants version of Bumgarner. He is years removed from his prime. Bumgarner might not be bad but he is not good either. He only has a 18.6% K rate vs RHBs with a 5.03 xFIP. Voit does strike out 25% of the time vs LHPs compared to nearly 35% vs RHPs. Bumgarner’s low K rate against righties should keep Voit alive. Voit gets the platoon advantage here. He has shown reverse splits at times throughout his career but then there are times where he hits lefties better.
Bottom line is that a cleanup hitter should not be $3500. The Padres still have a terrific team with Tatis out. He should bat with runners on base since Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth are hitting ahead of him. Voit has big-time power which gives him 40+DKpt upside. 1B is usually a stacked position but it is opening day. Teams are using their best pitchers so there are not a lot of spots to attack. Most of the 1B options do not have the platoon advantage so they do not stand out. Voit gives you the salary relief needed to play a stud like Trout and/or Soto with Bieber. He is going to be a popular pick but rightfully so.
Just missed the cut: Daulton Varsho, Manny Machado
OF Juan Soto $5000
WAS vs NYM
Soto is a 6k player so we are getting a pretty significant discount here. Max Scherzer is now starting the second game of the season for New York. This Nationals team is going to have an easier time against Tylor Megill. Although pitching is one of the Mets’ strengths, they are very right-handed heavy. Megill rarely goes deep into games. He usually is done by the 6th inning and had some short outings last season. With a short spring, managers likely will pull their starters a little earlier than normal. The first game of the season means the bullpen is fresh. Once Megill exits, it will be Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, and Edwin Diaz. These are some quality arms but they are all righties. New York has some lefties but the quality is not there. Nelson Cruz should bat behind Soto offering protection.
Megill has significant lefty/righty splits. Against RHBs, he was solid. He allowed only a .200avg, 28.2k%, and .294xFIP. That is great but Soto is a lefty who can hit LHPs just fine if it gets to that point, but he absolutely mashes MLB right-handed pitching. The man has a 181wRC+ vs RHPs. Megill allowed a .315avg, 23.9k%, and .518xFIP. Of the batted balls in play, Megill allowed a 52.9% fly-ball rate to lefties. That explains his 1.91HR/9. This is a great spot on paper. With Max Scherzer off the slate, there is more salary to spend for bats. Mike Trout exists but for a sport like baseball, anything can happen. Trout is the premier bat but it is possible to roster both of these top OFs. There are a good amount of sub-4k bats including Voit.
Just missed the cut: Nelson Cruz, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers
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