Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 11, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Boston Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez (28) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Reds and Guardians SPs Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed
CLE @ CIN
It is Taco Tuesday so time for another PrizePicks article! There are 2 NBA games today so I expect the tacos to be for NBA players. There are some edges on these MLB lines. PrizePicks introduced the new 1st inning runs allowed prop. For these, I am targeting games that have either two solid pitchers or two gas cans. This Reds and Guardians game features two great pitchers in Tyler Mahle and Shane Bieber. Mahle might not be a popular name, but he is a very good pitcher. When you pitch in Cincinnati, there just is not a lot of media coverage. That ballpark is also very hitter-friendly. Bieber is a Cy Young award winner. We have not seen Prizepicks put up games that feature two solid pitchers because there is a good chance that is an easy under 0.5.
The Guardians have put up 17 and 10 runs in their last two games. Clevland is not expected to contend this year. Kris Buboc and Carlos Hernandez are nowhere near the level of Mahle. This line is available maybe because of how hot the Guardians are swinging the bats right now or because of the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. All we are concerned about is the 1st inning. These two teams can score all they want later. I always favor unders because in the 1st inning, the hitters will be seeing the pitcher for the 1st time in the game. It is the 3rd time through the order that causes a lot of trouble for starting pitchers. This is one of the better games we have seen so far this season for 1st inning run lines.
Giants and Padres SPs Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Allowed
SD @ SF
This is also extremely appealing. Yu Darvish is an ace. Alex Cobb had a good season last year with the Angels. During the Spring, his fastball reached 97mph. This should lead to an even better season for him. This is one of the best pitcher-friendly ballparks there is in the league. Most likely the winds will be blowing out because it is San Francisco. That does not matter anywhere close to how it would for other stadiums because of how Oracle Park is designed. Do not be worried if the weather says the winds are blowing 20mph out to center. Oracle was designed to minimize the wind effects on baseball. It is only April so it is going to be cold in the Bay with an expected game-time temperature of 49 degrees.
It is difficult to choose which one of these two 1st inning run lines I like more. They are the two lowest total games today. The Guardians are implied for 4.5 runs, the Reds 4.2. The Padres are projected for 3.8 runs and the Giants 3.9. This Padres vs Giants game will be played at a pitcher’s park while the Guardians vs Reds will be played at a hitter’s park. However, Mahle and Bieber are a better pitching combo than Darvish and Cobb. Pure pitching talent outweighs the weather and stadium effects. I would play both of these together for a 2 pick. I also like the idea of taking the taco with both of these lines separately.
J.D. Martinez Over 6.5fpt
BOS @ DET
J.D. Martinez was known as the lefty masher. He still could be now but he did not have the same success against LHPs last season as he did before. In 2019, he hit .404, 19 HRs, and 40 RBIs in 141 at-bats. He had the highest batting average for that season in all of the majors. Martinez is now 34 years old. He could certainly decline but his whole game is revolved around hitting. He is not a good fielder and is slow. It is no surprise he has been a DH for all these years. Players like Nelson Cruz make Martinez look young. Today, he gets to face off against the lefty, Tyler Alexander. Alexander has a 5.05 xFIP in the last two seasons. He allows a .327 wOBA, .194 ISO, 43.3% flyball rate, and 45.3% hard-hit rate to RHBs. Martinez strikes out at a 19.3% rate against lefties.
He has good trajectory as his groundball rate sits at 32.9%. Martinez should be able to put a jolt into whatever Alexander throws at him. Boston has an elite lineup filled with RHBs that hit well against left-handed pitching. Martinez hits cleanup so there should be a lot of opportunities with runners in scoring position when he steps up to the plate. In addition, Trevor Story and Bobby Dalbec should bat behind Martinez giving him chances to round the bases. This line probably should be 7.5 or 8.5. At 6.5, a single to drive in a pair would get it done. One of the better hitters in the league should be able to find that form of his today in an exploitable matchup against Detroit.
Ozzie Albies Over 7.5fpt
ATL vs WAS
A lot of people got burned by Albies on Monday. He doubled in the 1st and came in to score from Ozuna’s single but then did nothing after that. Albies faces off against another lefty today in Patrick Corbin. Josh Rogers is someone Albies should have been able to take advantage of but that is how baseball is. He should be back in the leadoff spot tonight against the Nationals. Albies is a switch hitter but is much better when hitting from the right side of the plate. He hit .327 as a RHB compared to just .237 as a LHB in 2021. Atlanta is projected to score 5.3 runs today against Washington. As the leadoff hitter, he has a great shot at scoring runs.
Corbin has allowed a .390 wOBA, .264 ISO, and 45.8% hard-hit rate to RHBs. He only strikes them out 17.2% of the time. Albies strikes out 15% of the time against LHPs. These two have faced off quite a bit in their careers. Albies is 10-25 with 3 home runs against Corbin. I am not someone who puts too much stock in BvP stats but it is nice to see that Albies does see the lefty well. It is generally harder to steal off of a left-handed pitcher since they have a clear vision on the runner at first. Corbin allows a lot of steals for a LHP. Keibert Ruiz is not known for his pop time and arm. Albies can run. If he can record a stolen base, this should hit easily as they are worth 5fpt.
Just missed the cut: Kike Hernandez O 6.5fpt, Xander Bogaerts O 7.5fpt, Robbie Grossman O 5.5fpt, Jose Abreu O 7.5fpt, Willson Contreras O 5.5fpt, Brandon Lowe O 7.5fpt, Kyle Schwarber O 7.5fpt, Trey Mancini O 6.5fpt, Ryan Mountcastle O 6.5fpt, Anthony Rendon O 6.5fpt, Austin Riley O 7.5fpt, Marcell Ozuna O 6.5fpt, Nolan Arenado O 8.5fpt, Paul Goldschmidt O 8.5fpt, Marcus Semien O 7.5fpt, Corey Seager O 8.5fpt, Arenado O 1.5h+bb, Goldschmidt O 1.5h+bb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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