NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 3/26/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

SF Franz Wagner $5900

ORL vs SAC

We have a 7 game slate today with no shortage of injuries. There are some teams on a back-to-back so there is the potential of those teams load managing such as the Heat and the Rockets. For the Magic, Wendell Carter Jr. was originally listed as probable. He is now listed as questionable. Carter missed last game which allowed Chuma Okeke to step into the starting lineup. Markelle Fultz rested in that game as well as it was the second leg of a back-to-back for Orlando. The Kings are one of the best matchups in fantasy. Even if Carter plays, Wagner still would be in consideration because of this spot. Of course, Wagner is a much better play if Carter is out. Carter leads this team in rebounding and there should be plenty of boards to grab today. Wagner would benefit there. The Magic should be able to put points on the board easily.

With the peripherals, Wagner can have that upside game. He has not shot the ball well from deep recently. This is a get-right spot as Sacramento allows the 2nd-highest 3pt % to opposing teams at 36.8% only behind Portland. To the SF position, they allow the 8th-most made 3s on the season. This is a different Kings team though. They made the Domantas Sabonis trade who is now out along with De’Aaron Fox. To factor in these injuries, they allow the 5th-most 3s in their last 15 games. Wagner is not a sharpshooter. However, the Kings do not provide much resistance to pretty much any position. They allow the 5th-most DKpts to SFs. If Carter is out, Wagner could pick up some time at PF which would boost his rebounds. He likely will not see much time at that position but Orlando does have a lot of guards today with Fultz back that could slide Wagner down to the four.

 

SG/SF OG Anunoby $5500

TOR vs IND

Anunoby was low-owned on Thursday even though we knew pretty early before lock that he was going to play and start. Gary Trent Jr. missed that game. Trent has practiced so he should return fairly soon. Whether Trent returns or not, Anunoby is going to start. It likely means Khem Birch moves back to the bench and Toronto goes with Pascal Siakam at center. This is also a matchup where Siakam can comfortably play the five. Myles Turner remains out. Anunoby played 26mins in his return but could have easily played over 30. The Raptors went on a run with the bench unit at the start of the 4th quarter so some of the starters got extended rest. Anunoby checked back in with only 5:25 remaining in the quarter. Due to blowout, he lost the last 1:34. Nick Nurse continues to play his starters heavy minutes. It would not be surprising to see Anunoby play close to 35mins.

Since he only got 26mins and is now a bit more expensive, Anunoby likely will not get the ownership he deserves. He is a strong defender and there are plenty of guys he can guard today. Malcolm Brogdon is expected to return. Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield are also very talented players. Indiana turns the ball over the 7th-most in the league. They are blocked the 8th-most. Anunoby can rack up defensive stats and these stats do look appealing. If Trent plays, that may take away a few shots from Anunoby. However, the minutes are still going to be there. Trent should take minutes away from Birch and the bench players. This actually should help Anunoby because he would not need to compete with so many bigs for rebounds. Trent only averages 2.8 boards on the season.

 

SF Jeremy Lamb $3600

SAC @ ORL

There should be some solid value pieces to choose from today such as George Hill with Jrue Holiday out. Memphis will be without Ja Morant and some of those Grizzlies look very appealing. Sacramento will be without its two best players in Fox and Sabonis. While this benefits Davion Mitchell and the bigs the most, Lamb is sneaky. The Kings go with the hot hand to close every game. While Lamb comes off the bench, he can get extra minutes if he plays well. When he was on the Pacers, he seemed to be limited in every game. He barely played over 20mins. After he was traded to Sacramento, he immediately played 31mins. Since that happened, we know it is a possibility and that would be Lamb’s upside. On the Orlando side, if Carter misses this game, the Kings could play Harrison Barnes more at PF. This allows them to play another guard/wing like Lamb.

Justin Holiday starts but he does not close games that often. He needs to hit his shots or else Lamb or Donte DiVincenzo is taking his spot. Sacramento staggered Fox and Sabonis. Now with both of them out, there is so much usage freed up for everyone on this team. Lamb has recorded 3 assists in back-to-back games. This is not a lot but for someone who is usually points dependent, this gives him a higher floor and ceiling. Lamb played a good amount of minutes with Mitchell resting. That should continue today with the possibility of more court time down the stretch. Lamb had a 20.7% usage rate last game. Chimezie Metu led the team with a 27.7% usage rate but that is far from a guarantee to happen again. There is 10x upside here. Lamb could be sub-5% owned. I love the idea of rostering Lamb because he is going to pay off easily if he does get the extra playing time.

 

SG/SF Gary Harris $3000

ORL vs SAC

Since George Hill is priced at the bare minimum, Gary Harris likely will be low-owned. He has been known as a 3&D player during his Denver days. Harris missed a few games recently but those were due to a knee injury. The Magic are clearly tanking so he no longer starts. RJ Hampton starts. Harris is very shot-dependent. He averages 2reb and 1.8ast per game. Looking at March, he has not shot the ball particularly well. His minutes are a bit all over the place. These two things go together though so that works in our favor. He has had 3 and 4 steal games so that alleviates the point dependency a bit. This is an excellent spot to rack up defensive stats. Davion Mitchell has had some high turnover games in his rookie season. He is going to have the ball a lot which could lead to some steals for Harris.

You better shield your eyes when looking at Harris’s rates. He has a 17.4% usage rate averaging 0.69FPM with Suggs off the court. Taking Carter out too, he is at 18.6% with 0.77FPM. He is a 3&D player so he is not going to have a high usage rate. His role does not change much since he is not going to handle the ball more or take a lot more shots. Harris has taken at least 5 3s in four consecutive games. Sacramento allows the most DKpts to opposing SGs including the 2nd-most made 3s this season. I believe Lamb provides more upside. If you do not have the extra $600, going with Harris is fine. There is a higher chance than many would think that Harris can outscore Hill today. If Giannis is out, that changes things. If Giannis and Middleton both play, Hill really does not need to do much.

 

Just missed the cut: Malcolm Brogdon, Mo Bamba (if Carter out), Chris Boucher (if Trent out), Jae’Sean Tate, Chimezie Metu, Justin Holiday, Lance Stephenson, Greg Brown, Terrence Ross

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

Use code: WILL for 10% Discount on VIP or Core 4 Memberships