We are barely a week removed from NFL football and I am already having withdrawals. There are two ways to remedy this problem. You can dive headfirst into the NASCAR, PGA, or NBA streets to get your DFS fix. If this is your choice, DFS Army has you absolutely and thoroughly covered.
If you are more of a one spot fantasy player, like me, you can start furiously drafting best ball teams for the 2022 NFL season. In this scenario Underdog has you covered with a pre-draft tournament called The Big Board which features a 250k prize pool with 50k up top.
You might ask, “Isn’t it crazy to be drafting without knowing where the rookies and free agents will play?” In short, yes. Variance, luck, randomness (whatever you want to call the elements beyond your control) will be a bigger factor than in contests drafted closer to the season. That said, everyone is drafting with the same lack of information. If you excel at scouting college prospects or predicting free agent landing spots you should have a significant advantage on the field.
I have already drafted 20 teams in this contest. Below are a handful of notes and observations from my early drafts.
Feb 6, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; NFC tight end Kyle Pitts of the Atlanta Falcons (8) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the Pro Bowl football game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
The Best Ball Market Has No Love For Veteran RBs That Over Performed in 2021.
Rashaad Penny was the last round flier that turned into a league winner in many best ball and season long contests. His late season heroics fattened more than a few bank accounts. Early drafters, however, seem to view it as mirage. Penny is going in the 8th round with an ADP of 95.8.
James Conner scored 18 touchdowns last season for the Cardinals. In the past, this would have led to him being drafted in the top 3 rounds the following season. You could argue that drafts have gotten more sharp or just more wide receiver happy as Conner is also a 8th round pick with an ADP of 91.2.
Melvin Gordon was a useful player to have on your best ball teams last year tallying over 1,100 total yards with 10 total TDs. He can currently be had in the 10th round with an ADP of 115.8.
You can even look as deep as the 17/18th round for guys like Sony Michel (ADP 202.0) and D’Onta Foreman (ADP 209.1). Both veterans were getting meaningful carries in playoff games only a few weeks ago.
All of the above backs should have done enough to earn themselves a role wherever the land in 2022. I generally favor youth when drafting RBs, but it feels as if the old boy hate has gone too far. If you are drafting with a zero RB strategy or just targeting receivers early, there should be plenty of places to find carries late.
There Will Be No DFS Discounts on Kyle Pitts.
Despite recording (an impressive for a rookie) 1026 receiving yards, it was not a particularly fun experience to roster Kyle Pitts. He certainly did not return value for your season long or best ball teams. Pitts was drafted in the same range as Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Mark Andrews. He went 2/3 rounds ahead of Deebo. If you tried to chase his volume week after week late the in DFS season, he never really got there for you.
The obvious reason for Pitts’ underwhelming performance is the fact that he only scored one touchdown. I had hoped to bank on positive TD regression in 2022 and draft the young stud TE at discount. Everyone must have been thinking the same thing as Pitts as an ADP of 29.3. I have seen him goes as high as 22 overall in the 2nd round,
Pitts is being drafted as the 3rd tight end off the board, behind only Kelce and Andrews. He is consistently being taken ahead of Waller and Kittle. I will still get some share of Pitts because I do believe the breakout is coming, however, it will be hard to get significantly overweight on him at this surprisingly elevated price.
No One On Underdog Likes the New York Giants
I get it. I am a diehard, life long Giants fan and I’ve hated nearly every move the franchise has made for the made for the better part of the last decade. With Gettleman finally gone, I see light at the end of the tunnel. New head coach Brian Daboll worked wonders with Josh Allen and the Bills offense. New offensive coordinator Mike Kafka was thought to be a rising star in Kansas City’s staff. This combination should be a massive upgrade over Joe Judge and Jason Garrett.
Daniel Jones being drafted as the QB22 with a 13th round ADP of 153.8. I have no delusions that Daboll can turn Danny Dimes into the next Josh Allen, but I do think he can make a valuable QB 2 or 3 on a best ball team. We’ve seen Jones provide a rushing floor and post the occasional ceiling game. I believe the new Giants staff will put him in the best position to succeed.
Jones also has some attractive stacking partners at cost. Kadarius Toney is going in the late 7th/early 8th round. When on the field as a rookie he looked dynamic. If he manages to stay healthy, he has the talent to outproduce that ADP. As gross as it sounds, I don’t mind taking a flier on Kenny Golladay who is going in the 11th round with an ADP of 121.2. He less than a year removed from receiving a 72 million dollar contract. The new regime in New York will try their best to revive the 28-year-old Golladay garner some return on the franchise’s large investment.
I am Taking Multiple Shots of Jameson in My Best Ball Lineups
If we were drafting before the National Championship Game, Jameson Williams might have been the first rookie WR taken. After tearing his ACL he is going as the 5th rookie WR behind Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, and Chris Olave.
Williams has an ADP of 126.8, almost 60 picks after Burks (67.8). I am not scared off by an ACL tear in the knee of an ultra productive 20-year-old receiver. He may miss a couple games to start the season. He could very well start slow, but you draft rookies to improve gradually and carry you late in season. Amon-Ra St. Brown was an absolute smash pick as a rookie and he didn’t even really hit his stride to until the last six games of the season.
In my last draft Jameson Williams slipped to pick 140, in the 12th round. I believe he offers way more upside than Marvin Jones or Robby Anderson who going in the same range. If the Alabama product is drafted into a good situation and the reports on his knees are positive out of camp, he will fly up draft boards. You could ultimately end up getting him here at a 4 or 5 round discount relative to where his ADP settles.
It has become increasingly clear that there is no offseason for a NFL fantasy player and we will have you covered every step of the way. Stay plugged into the Bold Calls podcast and the DFS Army website in general for the latest NFL news and analysis.
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