NBA DFS Basketball Low-Owned Tournament Projections Picks for DraftKings 2/24/2022

Winning at NBA DFS these days is more than picking the obvious player. And, with such tight ranges of outcomes, getting away from the chalk is often admittedly building “sub-optimally.”  But, building “optimal” lineups is NOT the point for taking down tournament basketball and the huge prizes…

Putting your name atop NBA leaderboards is about making the right pivots, taking sensible chances on those lower-owned players that have almost as good a chance to put up the big night as the player everyone else is focusing on.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. I have focused on tournaments over the years and hope to deliver to you guys the best low-owned plays on any given slate. As these articles are written many hours before lock, ownerships will drastically change. To find the most up-to-date ownership %s, check out our NBA Domination Station as well as our Pivot Tool. If you aren’t a member and would like to join the Army, use code “WILL” for 10% off VIP or Core 4 memberships!

Tournament Winning NBA Low-Owned Plays for Tonight…

PG Trae Young $9900

ATL @ CHI

Back to the grind! Somehow, players got injured over the break. Clevland potentially gives us a 4k PG value play. Phoenix will be without Chris Paul for potentially the rest of the regular season. Aaron Holiday and Elfrid Payton should be solid values depending on what the starting lineup is. With all this value at PG, people will spend that salary on Nikola Jokic at center. This leaves expensive PGs like Trae Young, underowned. John Collins is doubtful and Gorgui Dieng is out. The Bulls will be without some of their top perimeter defenders in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. This game is projected to be the 2nd-highest total on the slate at 234.5 with a close spread of 3.5 in favor of the Bulls.

Taking Collins off the floor this season, Young has an absurdly high 37.8% usage rate averaging 1.51FPM. This is not quite Jokic-level production but Trae is much cheaper and should come at less ownership today. This Bulls defense has been in shambles since the injury bug snuck into the Chicago locker room. They are allowing the most DKpts to opposing PGs in their last 15 games. Young is one of the highest pick and roll frequency players. Expect a lot of Young and Capela screen and rolls as Nikola Vucevic is not known for his defense. Capela is a big-time lob threat and his mins should be more secure with Collins likely out for this one. His absence means more Danilo Gallinari mins. This should help Young’s rebounding numbers a tad as Gallo is not a good rebounder.

 

PG/SG D’Angelo Russell $7700

MIN vs MEM

It would be a good idea to get some exposure to the highest total game of the slate. The stars in Ja Morant and Karl-Anthony Towns do not stand out because of their prices. Anthony Edwards looks solid with SG/SF eligibility at $7500. This should make DLo the lower-owned of the two. Russell’s SG eligibility allows you to roster the value PGs today and still have a spot to pick him. It would be nice if Patrick Beverley was out so Russell could start at PG and have total control of the ball-handling duties. Pat Bev has had some nice assist games. However, Beverley should have his hands full on the defensive side of the ball with Morant on the other side. He is foul prone which if he does indeed get into foul trouble, someone with a much lower assist rate like a Malik Beasley would come in.

Russell finished the 1st half cold shooting the ball. He went a combined 7/31 in his last 2 games before the break. This includes a 5/20 game in which he still recorded 42DKpts. His peripherals provide him huge upside in the event that he does get his shot to fall. The Grizzlies will still be without their best perimeter defender in Dillon Brooks. Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke can provide some resistance against Towns. With Jusuf Nurkic out, Anfernee Simons at $8100 should pick up a lot of ownership in this price range. If one of Brandon Goodwin or Rajon Rondo starts, every lineup will come pre-loaded with that guy plus a Suns guard value play. Russell provides huge upside in the best game environment of the slate.

 

C Kevon Looney $4400

GSW @ POR

I liked Looney before the Jusuf Nurkic news came out. I thought Looney would have to play more minutes than usual to match up against the Bosnian Beast. Now, more people will probably roster Looney because he does not have to deal with the talented big man anymore. Looney’s mins are more in question now. Portland could start a number of guys and we do not know how they will run their rotations. However, Looney should be more productive with this Nurkic news. The Warriors have an elite defense. With no inside threat, the Blazers could be very one-dimensional tonight. Simons has played out of his mind lately. Golden State should be able to focus on Simons now with all these Blazers out. He could see a lot of Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins defense in this one.

If Simons cannot get it going, the Portland offense is going to be inefficient. This will lead to more rebounds for the Warriors. Gary Payton II is expected to start tonight. With Draymond Green and James Wiseman still sidelined, Looney remains the only true center on the roster. He should grab a lot of the rebounds and there will be plenty of them if Portland has trouble scoring. Jokic should be a very popular option at center. Deandre Ayton is the best mid-range option. Going with a value center is contrarian today but there are some doubts for those value PGs. Looney has questions of his own such as the playing time. This game has a 9.5 spread but the Blazers are playing at home so maybe that helps this one stay competitive.

 

SF/PF Cameron Johnson $4300

PHX @ OKC

As long as the Suns start either Aaron Holiday or Elfrid Payton, Cam Johnson will be a sneaky option. After Chris Paul was ejected in the game before the break, neither Holiday nor Payton closed. Jae Crowder also was not in the closing lineup. Devin Booker is capable of running the show. Phoenix could opt to go with another shooter in place of CP3. This game is in OKC and they are getting back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Mikal Bridges has become a lot more of an offensive threat in recent weeks while Ayton should be able to eat down low. Booker could facilitate this game more because the Suns need someone to play make. Johnson flourished in the two games he was chalk. If he starts, he will be one of the highest-owned plays on the slate. However, I think he comes off the bench.

Johnson averages 0.80FPM this season with Chris Paul and Cam Payne off the floor. There is an argument to be made that the Suns could struggle to get quality looks with CP3 out. While this offense is for sure to take a hit, Booker has done this before. Before the Suns acquired CP3, when the starting PG went down, Booker took over the PG position and provided plenty of assists. The Thunder are not the best matchup but also are not the worst. Since Booker, Bridges, and Ayton are closing, that leaves 2 spots left. If it is Crowder and Johnson, that means the chalky Holiday or Payton is not. This could be a direct pivot off of the chalk that pays off.

 

Just missed the cut: LaMarcus Aldridge, Jared Vanderbilt, Kevin Huerter, De’Andre Hunter, Brandon Goodwin, Cedi Osman, Isaiah Roby, Kelly Olynyk, Marvin Bagley III

 

Final NBA DFS Thought

Winning a tournament is different than a cash game.  Apply focus to key metrics like usage and fpt/min, but study ownership projections as a priority!  Where the crowd goes is as important to know as any statistic.  Zig when they zag, catch the right night, and you will win far more money than just playing the status-quo.  Grab our cheatsheets, chalkboard, and pivot tools for spotlights shined brightly on these types of plays.  And, consult our coaching to fine-tune your construction, including a huge fundamental we won’t discuss in this article…..contest selection.

Get your NBA DFS season started hot right out of the gate by taking advantage of my coupon code below…

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