Draftkings MMA Lineup Mass Entry Strategy

]

Bombing 

In the last article on Semi-Chalk lineup building, we covered NBA and how to attack smaller slates in order to build your bankroll. Today, we will be tinkering with the concept of carpet bombing (taught by Chop) in order to apply the information to MMA GPP Tournaments.

What’s Carpet Bombing? 

I have gotten a lot of compliments on my brevity in my writing, therefore I will not risk a long winded answer by providing you all with a brief description.

Breakdown

• 150 entries or more encouraged
• Spread Ownership out, I start with capping everyone at 25%
• 2 uniques

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha5yVbsb3nI

Transfer To MMA Lineup Building

Playing with the ownership levels in order to ensure exposure to all of the players in order to embrace the volatility that exists in MMA. If you enjoy betting on fighting, and have been doing it long enough, I am sure there has been a time where your favorite has costed you money. That is because in MMA the huge underdog can land the miracle knockout or the stud could fall into a submission by a dog at any given moment. Therefore, instead of trying to make the perfect pick, I embrace that it is very hard to get it right, and spread my eggs across the field of fighters.

Check Ownership

This is where you have an edge on others by using tools such as the Domination Station in order to analyze ownership levels. For example, if there is a stud play that is 75% projected ownership, it will benefit you to match that ownership.

Why?

If the player does what the field is confident he or she will do, you will need to have him or her in your lineup. Match the ownership and move on! Why? This will ensure you are exposed enough to have him or her when they hit, which ultimately limits risk overall.

Finally, the GPP Plays 

Utilize the Domination Station to check ownership projections, and refer to the research station  to find value amongst the fighters. Once you find the players you like, you may not have to go way over on them for an edge.

For example:

you may find a 10% fighter and own them at 25% which puts your exposure over the field’s.

Back-test

Speaking with Geek immediately sparked the light bulb on how to properly finish this article. Put the theory to test before we execute it tomorrow. How?! Easy, we ran a backtest for each of the last 4 MMA slates leading up to tomorrow.

Method for Backtest #1

• 150 lineups
• 2 unique
• 0 randomization
• Matched ownership of every fighter above 25%, everything 25% and below projown% did not receive any adjusting from the original 25% cap
• The first backtest was simply done by matching all ownership above 25% and running the domination station

Findings

Don’t you hate trying to read through informational articles, and you spend so much time cutting through the frugulous information and getting to the meat of why you came to the article to begin with. Have no fear! Bullets baby!!!

Lineup Backtest #1

• Each of the 4 lineups had at least 35 lineups that had a score that ranged from 525-700
• 3 out of 4 contests had 50% of its lineups finish in the top 50% of the tournaments
  • • UFC 270 
    • You will see if you click on the link above, we were actually able to obtain a score that would be the nuts in most GPP tournaments that MMA DFS has to offer.

Lineup Backtest #2

While it is exciting to see that we can achieve the “nuts” without manipulation in a sample backtest population t of 4 slates. We wish to investigate further in order to see what it would take to make the bomb work in a manner that we are finding the “nuts” in multiple lineups rather than  1.

• Using the DS Smiley Faces! 
  • In my nightly debrief with Geek, he reminded me of my professors as he sounded the same as my professors by essentially saying, “You are close, but yet so far away”. All jokes aside I am grateful for the time I get with experts like “Geek” as well as the feedback I receive from my professors. Remember, be coachable (Give this a read if you haven’t yet)!
  • A Note for Aspiring Players: Geek helped me realize that it is great that I was able to find the nuts in 1 of my lineups, but what would it take to get multiple “nuts” lineups? To that point, his point captures the difference between an emerging player like myself and experts. Notice how Geek was not satisfied by merely having the nuts in one line up. On the contrary, he wanted to explore what it would take to do even better! Keep exploring, don’t except good! This is what separates the pros from the joes.

Back to Smileys: I started to manipulate my exposure by adding smiley faces, hearts & thumbs up to manipulate the Kattar vs. Chikadze slate. I did this in order to manipulate the slate that had the lowest number of cashing outcomes for the 150 lineups (30 lineups cashed).

• Testing the Strategies for Lineup building: 

Trial 1:

• • Reference the DFSA Cheat Sheet, and gave ❤️ to all of Marley’s picks that were dogs and 😍 to Marley’s picks that were favorites. 
  • Outcome: Nuts not found

Trial 2 (adjustment):

• • ❤️ (love) to 3-4 star plays and😍 (adore) to 5 star plays (refer to confidence ratings)
  • Target both Sides of 5 star fights and make sure I am 5% over for the dog as well as the favorite
  • Outcome: no nuts lineup found until manipulation of 5 backtest runs through optimizer and had to cap all ownership to match the field on the “Good Chalk”

Click here to see what I am referring to with the emojiis and using the Domination Station

Building Lineups Today…

Methods from trial 2 will be utilized today as well as the next 5 MMA slates in order to test its effectiveness. The desire is to attempt trial 1 first as there is a high confidence in the research that Big Marley puts fourth. Also, after speaking with Geek, I have adjusted the ownerships to reflect the fights that Marley Likes the most in order to match or exceed ownership of the great plays in great fights according to Marley. It will take several runs and manipulations by both using the Emojiis provided in the DS as well hand manipulating percentages to increase the ownership of players you want to own more. 

Don’t forget, you can talk to guys like Big Marley and more in the discord when you join the Army!

Coming up…..

Be on the lookout as we continue to work to find the a strategy that creates success and consistently repeat the success in building lineups for Large Field GPP Tournaments. 

Did I Spark an Idea in Life or DFS??

Come talk to me! I am in the discord 24/7 and value connecting with people. My goal for this is to make you better DFS picks while making your life better, too. Because, let’s face it, a million dollars is no good if you are a lonely old jerk.

Twitter: @geno_casas

Pricing for DFS Army VIP
Coupon Code for 10% off: DFLGENO