Welcome to the first ever week 18 of the NFL season. We had some good calls last week in this column (Penny, Berrios, Chicago DST). That said, my contention that Tampa Bay and Antonio Brown would work in harmony to get his bonus money failed in truly spectacular fashion.
I doubt we will see anything that crazy this week, but with the majority of teams having little or no chance at the playoffs we need to be prepared for some chaos. There is a clear best play (Josh Allen, Jonathon Taylor, Cooper Kupp, and Mark Andrews) at each individual position and they are priced accordingly. In this salary cap game we play it is nearly impossible to build a sensible lineup with any more than two of the above four studs.
I will have exposure to all four in multi-entry GPPs, but will likely be highest on Taylor and Kupp. There are a couple cheaper QBs that I like and paying down at TE just makes it so much easier to build. Below are six players that I will mixing in with the best spend ups as I shoot for the top of the leaderboards.
Jan 2, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) throws under pressure from Carolina Panthers defensive end Marquis Haynes (98) in the second quarter at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
1- Taysom Hill, $6,200 on DraftKings
All the Saints need to make the playoffs is to win and have the Ram beat the 49ers. They will clearly be motivated. They are playing indoors against against a recently eliminated Atlanta team with a bad defense. Hill has averaged 11.25 rushing attempts in his last 4 starts. This give us floor we need for cash games and his price makes it possible to fit Taylor and Kupp.
In GPPs I like pairing him with Marquez Callaway ($5,000). The preseason darling is coming off a 10 target week and is averaging 14.8 DK points over his last 3 games. If Callaway can bust a long one on the fast track in Atlanta, Taysom will be not just a solid cash play, but have a GPP ceiling.
2- Tyler Huntley $5,700 on DraftKings and $7,000 on Fanduel
Now that it’s been announced that Lamar Jackson will not play against Pittsburg, we can officially start plugging Tyler Huntley into our lineups. Baltimore is a long shot to make the playoffs, but they are still technically alive, so they will be going all out to beat their hated division rivals.
We’ve seen Huntley post a ceiling game before (35.9 DK points week 15 against Green Bay). Like Taysom Hill, Huntley provides a rushing floor combined with salary relief. This great run that Mark Andrews is on has happened largely with Huntley under center. The young QB peppers his elite tight end with targets. If you are going to pay up for Andrews, it makes sense to stack him with a cheap Huntley.
3- Ray Ray McCloud, $3,700 on DraftKings and $4,900 on Fanduel
As man with too many Dionte Johnson captain shares in Showdown on Monday night, I found myself cursing at the TV, asking “Why is Big Ben only throwing to Ray Ray F’ing McCloud?” The answer is that Ben really can’t throw down the field anymore and is more comfortable with the underneath routes that the quick, but undersized McCloud runs.
I had McCloud in my shell lineup before it was announced that Dionte Johnson is out with Covid. Now, at these prices, with no Johnson to hog targets, I’m treating McCloud as a borderline lock. We’ve been picking on the banged up Baltimore secondary for weeks. Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth are also good plays, but price considered, McCloud is my favorite of the bunch. More value could open up as news breaks, but as of now he seems like safest WR under 4k on DraftKings or 5k on Fanduel.
I like McCloud as a one off, or as a run back to my Huntley/Andrews stacks. And lets be honest, it’s fun playing a guy named Ray Ray.
4- Devin Singletary, $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,700 on Fanduel
The Bills can clinch a division title with a win verse the lowly Jets, so they will be going full boar on Sunday afternoon. It has taken nearly the whole season, but Singletary has established himself as the lead dog in the Buffalo backfield. He had 23 carries last week, while Zack Moss had only 3, and Matt Breida was a healthy scratch.
Singletary is a 3 down running back on team with the highest implied point total (28.5) on the slate, who is 16 point home favorite. I thought the Geek made a good point on the Gameplan. He noted that you’ll often get a good effort from a dead team, late in the season at home. A team with nothing to play for is less likely to put up fight on the road. I don’t think this Jet defense, who has given up massive scores to running backs all year, is going to be particularly hyped or enthused for this road game in cold Buffalo. Singletary also provides some GPP leverage off Josh Allen who looks to be the highest owned QB on the slate.
5- D’Onta Foreman $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,900 on Fanduel
You might notice a pattern developing. I like guys who come in playing well, for teams who need the game. Running back D’Onta Foreman fits this mold. People might be scared off by the much ballyhooed news that Derrick Henry has returned to practice this week. I am guessing that they are just starting to ramp him up for the playoffs and we won’t actually see Henry return until then.
The Titans have used the similarly built Foreman, basically as a very poor man’s Derrick Henry. Foreman had his best game of the season last week, rushing 26 times for 132 yards against Miami. The downside to playing Foreman is that he has little to no involvement in the passing game. However, with Titans listed as 10 point favorites against a bad Houston team, game script should play in his favor. Foreman loses significant snaps to Dontrell Hilliard and Jeremy McNichols when Tennessee is forced to play from behind. That should not be an issue if the game plays out the way Vegas expects.
6- Zach Ertz, $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,600 on Fanduel
I feel like I say this a lot of weeks, but I hate tight end on this slate. If you are not paying up for Andrews (and we’ve discussed the opportunity cost of doing so), you are not going to feel great at the position. The punt options aren’t great. Cole Kmet ($3,400 on DK) should see a decent amount of target, but always seems to get cucked in the red zone by old man Jimmy Graham. On the other end of the spectrum, I like Cam Brate’s chances of catching a touchdown from Tom Brady this week, but even if he does, the volume probably won’t be there to help you win a GPP.
Over his last 4 games Ertz has averaged 10 targets and 6.5 receptions per game. Over that time he has failed to find the end zone. As result, he hasn’t put up monster scores or seen any real rise in salary. I like betting on a little positive touch down regression at home for Ertz in a game that Arizona needs. They are still live to win the division and secure a home playoff game if the Rams trip up against the Niners.
I will use Zach Ertz both on his own and with Kyler in game stacks. I like Lockett as the run back after DK blew up for 3 TDs last week.
I’ve really enjoyed writing the column for DFS Army all season. It has helped me focus my preparation and think through the slate each week. I hope I’ve helped you uncover some winning plays. Let’s finishing out the regular season with a bang.
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