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The Simple Six | DFS NFL Week 17 Leans for DraftKings and Fanduel

Welcome to week 17 of NFL DFS action.  Hopefully you still have a team or two going in your season long or best ball championships.  If you do, it was likely thanks to Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, or Mark Andrews.  That Cincinnati/Baltimore game was the one you needed to have stacked last week to make any money.

This week, 3 games stand out above the rest.  Arizona at Dallas (52 point total), Kansas City at Cincinnati (51), and LA Rams at Baltimore (46.5) will be the spots where most people focus their stacks.  All 6 teams need the game for playoff positioning, have excellent QB/pass catchers stack options, and logical run backs.   The Geek and Bobby break down these spots from every angle on the Gameplan.

I am going to focus my Simple Six picks on the value plays I am going to use in order to make these high priced game stacks work.

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1- Braxton Berrios, $3,700 on DraftKings

Do I really want to lead my article with a New York Jet?  I think I actually do.  The undersized slot receiver is averaging a respectable 12.3 DK points over his last 3 games.  The Jets are not going to be able to run on Tampa Bay and as 13 point dogs, Vegas expects them to be playing from behind.  With Elijah Moore out and Jamison Crowder doubtful, Berrios should be Zack Wilson’s first option in the passing game.

The former Miami Hurricane will get peppered with targets and at only $3,700, looks like one of the best salary savers on the slate.

 

2- Albert Okwuegbunam, $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,500 on Fanduel

This is beginning to sound like a written version of “Where My Turds At?” with these first two plays, but if we want to play the high priced/owned game stacks, we are going to need to get a little weird with some value plays.  Covid has essentially wiped out the Denver WR room. Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick are looking like they are going to be out and Cortland Sutton is questionable.

Denver will be forced to play much of the game in 12 personnel, meaning a big increase in snaps and routes run for the TE known as Albert O.  The Chargers are soft against the tight end position and I’ll also have some shares of Noah Fant ($4,400 on DK and $5,300 on FD).

Before getting blanked last week against the Raiders, Albert posted usable scores of 8.8 and 15.1 in successive weeks on DraftKings.  An increased role, indoors in LA should make him a worthy TE punt play this week.

 

3- Antonio Brown, $6,100 on DraftKings 

I noticed an interesting Tweet from Curtis Patrick of RotoViz stating that AB has almost a million dollars of achievable bonus money in play the next two weeks.  He gets $333K for reaching each of 11 more grabs, 281 yards, and 3 TDs.  After missing 3 game checks due to his fake vax card suspension, I’m guessing Brown is going to go hard after this bonus money.  Brady and the Buc should be able to do whatever they want against the Jets, and they will want to get AB his cash.

Don’t get me wrong, Brown is a good play without even taking this walk down narrative street.  We highlighted AB’s ridiculous $4,900 DraftKings price here last week.  All he did was see an insane 50% target share (15 on 30 Brady passes).  Mike Evans is listed as questionable and could be back this week.  Brown has also missed practice time with an ankle injury, but as long as he’s active I will not hesitate to fire him up against the Jets at a still too cheap $6,100.

NFL DFS

Dec 19, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones (27) is tackled by New Orleans Saints defensive back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (22) in the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

4- Ronald Jones Jr., $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,000 on Fanduel

Lets continue to pick on a Jet defense that ranks 32nd overall and 30th against the run.  The fantasy playoffs have been a bad beat for those wise drafters who took Lombardi Lenny over Rojo in the mid to late rounds.  It is a cruel game we play.  As the Fournette replacement, Rojo saw 20 carries last week against Carolina.  If Jones gets 20 carries against the Jets, it will be hard for him not to make value at this price.

In large field GPPs (if you want to get silly for the milly), and some leverage on the Rojo chalk, it’s not crazy to have a few shares of Ke’Shawn Vaughn at $5,200 on DK.  The long forgotten prospect, who’s been sitting idly on many a dynasty taxi squad, rushed 70 and touch last week spelling Rojo.

 

5- Rashaad Penny, $6,100 on DraftKings and $6,900 on Fanduel

These are very fair prices for a hot running back who is a 7.5 point home favorite against the Detroit Lions.  Even with a 6.4 point dud at the Rams factored in, Penny is averaging 19.6 DK points in the 3 games that he’s taken over the feature roll in the Seattle backfield.

In what projects to be a rainy/bad weather game in Seattle, I expect run loving Pete Carroll to continue to feed his former first round pick who is finally healthy and starting to produce.

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6- Chicago DST, $3,200 on DraftKings

I rarely use one of my six picks in this space to highlight a defense.  DST is the most random, and difficult to project position in DFS.  I am going to make an exception here and tout the Bears, because the Giants are putting out an offensive unit that is spectacularly bad this week.

The quarterback position will be some gross combination of Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm.  They are missing center Billy Brice and tackle Matt Peart from an already undermanned line.  Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, John Ross, and Collin Johnson are all out at wide receiver.  Kenny Golladay is literally the last man standing in their WR room, aside from whoever they might call up from the practice squad or sign off the street.

I can’t envision a scenario in which this mash unit that Giants are traveling with to Chicago puts up anything resembling a competent offensive performance.

 

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Get in there now and climb those week 17 leaderboards!