The information contained within the Shark Chronicles weekly report can be utilized across both DraftKings and FanDuel sites, as well as across contest types, I.E. Single Entry, Three Max, and GPPs. The methodologies incorporated within are mathematically and statistically driven to take human emotion out of building lineups, and build lineups that are sound mathematically and statistically to reduce the necessity of luck.

Quarterbacks

When looking at games to target for our Milly Maker lineups based upon historical data points, it’s important to target games based upon a set of factors.  Based upon the 2017 to 2020 winning Milly Maker contests, at the QB position we need look at projected Vegas favorites with spreads of -3.5, -3.0, -7.5, -6.0, -7.0, and -2.5 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Target QBs with Vegas projected point totals of 49.5, 55.5, 46.0, 45.0, and 47.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Additionally, target the bottom 6 to 10 passing defenses.  From 2017 through 2020, the highest rostered favored QBs were from Seattle, Atlanta, New Orleans, Dallas and Kansas City.

Last season targeting the QBs projected to win and “X” out of our player pools those QBs that were not projected to win was a favorable proposition for the Shark Lab.  Projected winning QBs score more fantasy points than QBs who are projected to lose. By targeting favorites, close spreads, and higher scoring games we position our lineups to push the top of the leaderboards at a greater frequency than we would targeting non-favorites, higher spread games, and lower total points.  We also still need to target the bottom passing defenses as this will further amplify our lineups up the leaderboards. 

Since 2017, winning Milly Maker lineups have targeted QBs who were favored on projected closing Vegas lines 74% of the time.  In week 1 of the 2021 NFL season, we need to not over think things and roster those QBs projected to win. Is there a possibility that a QB who’s projected to lose could blow up and be on the winning Milly Maker lineup, yes it could, but we have historical precedence and statistical trends that prove otherwise 74% of the time!  As a result, target projected Vegas favorite QBs, target projected Vegas closing lines to score of 49.5, 55.5, 46.0, 45.0, and 47.0 whenever possible, and close scoring projected Vegas closing lines spread of -3.5, -3.0, -7.5, -6.0, -7.0, and -2.5 and you will position your lineups to Win More Monies!!!

Utilizing historical Vegas lines trends is vital to your success with lineup construction, but it’s not the only aspect we need to utilize for determining the QBs to roster weekly.  We need to look at salary as well, and during the 2020 NFL season the sweet spot salary to target was relatively flatlined across three salary categories, the $5,000, $6,000 and $7,000 range equally, at 29%, 29% and 25% respectively of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs in this range.

Additionally, there are 3 main defensive factors to be used in addition to the projected closing Vegas lines and player’s salaries to determine top QBs. Those factors are Defensive Fantasy Points Ranks given up to position, Opposition Defensive Rank vs. Passing situations, and Defensive Pressure Rank.  The winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs in game situations that met 2 or more of these 6 categories. For example, in 2020 the average Defensive Pressure Rank was 20.50. Which means for all the QBs utilized in winning Milly Maker lineups, the average Defensive Pressure Rank of the QBs rostered was 20.50 out of 32 NFL, thus the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs against bottom tier defenses at stopping the run. These defensive factors are showcased in below spotlighted games to targeted QBs from (defensive rankings are from the conclusion of the 2020 season).

As we enter into week 6 of the 2021 NFL season, we have a good sample size of weeks and slates that provide us with trends that we can utilize to make informed and actionable lineup decisions.

Over the course of the first 16 weeks of the season, there were 25 Milly Maker contests, here’s what was gleaned from the first 16 weeks. Vegas projected favorite QBs were rostered in the winning Milly Maker lineups 88% of the time. Every week the trend continues that winning Milly Maker lineups roster Vegas projected favorite QBs. Therefore, you should “X” out non-favored QBs from your player pool because it is statistically driven that doing so will place more of your lineups in a position to succeed than fail. Reduce the number of variables (puzzle pieces) you have to deal with on a weekly basis by reducing the number of QBs by half each week and utilize the secondary methodologies presented here to further reduce the variables. 64% of the time, winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs with Vegas projected total points of 47 or greater. 68% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs with Vegas projected favorites with spreads of PK to -7. The winning Milly Maker lineups rostered QBs at home 64% of the time. 84% of the time, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted QBs who went up against defenses who surrendered the highest fantasy points allowed to the QB position (Defenses that were ranked 15^th or worse at allowing fantasy points to the QB position). Of course, there will be slates where you are not going to be able to hit every target point, but the more target points hit the more “roster-able” that QB becomes. We lower our QB player pool very easily by following these specific measurables, simplify your lineup builds and simply “X” out those underdogs each week and you’ll see your bankroll increase as a result. Can underdogs perform, absolutely, but favorites perform at a greater rate than underdogs. As a result, target QBs at home, projected Vegas favorites, with projected Vegas total points of 47 or greater, projected Vegas spreads of PK to -7, and target defenses who give up a lot of fantasy points to the QB position.

Games for QBs that Fit the Bill:

(Home teams – Right Hand Side Teams, Favored Implied Team Totals (FAV IT))

Kansas City vs. Cincinnati – (KC Vegas Favorite, -4.5 spread, 51 points total, FAV IT 27.75, CIN DEF Pass Rank 22^nd, CIN DEF Pressure Rank 17^th, CIN FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 22^nd, KC OFF Pressure Rank 7^th)

Arizona vs. Dallas – (DAL Vegas Favorite, -6 spread, 51.5 points total, FAV IT 28.75, ARI DEF Pass Rank 5^th, ARI DEF Pressure Rank 10^th, ARI FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 16^th, DAL OFF Pressure Rank 11^th)

LA Rams vs. Baltimore – (LAR Vegas Favorite, -5.5 spread, 46.5 points total, FAV IT 26.00, BAL DEF Pass Rank 30^th, BAL DEF Pressure Rank 26^th, BAL FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 32^nd, LAR OFF Pressure Rank 4^th)

Atlanta vs. Buffalo – (BUF Vegas Favorite, -14.5 spread, 44.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, ATL DEF Pass Rank 29^th, ATL DEF Pressure Rank 32^nd, ATL FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 29^th, BUF OFF Pressure Rank 3^rd)

Philadelphia vs. Washington – (PHI Vegas Favorite, -4.5 spread, 45 points total, FAV IT 24.75, WAS DEF Pass Rank 27^th, WAS DEF Pressure Rank 14^th, WAS FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 31^st, PHI OFF Pressure Rank 19^th)

Running Backs

When looking at games to target for our Milly Maker lineups based upon historical data points, it’s important to target games based upon a set of factors for the Running Back position.  Based upon the 2017 to 2020 winning Milly Maker contests, at the RB position we need to target projected Vegas favorites. Historical statistical trends showcase that winning Milly Maker lineups rostered projected Vegas favorite RBs 65% of the time from 2017 to 2020. Target RBs with Vegas projected spreads of -3.0, -3.5, -7.0, -7.5, -6.0, -10.0, -1.5 and -2.5 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Target Vegas projected point totals of 48.0, 49.0, 46.5, 50.0, 51.5, 47.0, 43.5, 52.0, 49.5, 45.5, and 45.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Target rushing defenses whose defensive rank is 25^th or worst and defensive line rank of 25^th or worst.

Utilizing historical Vegas lines trends is vital to your success with lineup construction, but it’s not the only aspect we need to utilize for determining the RBs to roster weekly.  We need to look at salary as well, and during the 2020 NFL season the sweet spot salary to target was the $6,000 and $7,000 range equally, as 28% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered RBs in this range, followed by the $4,000 salary range at 17%.

Additionally, there are 4 main defensive factors to be used in addition to the projected closing Vegas lines and player’s salaries to determine top RBs. Those factors are Defensive Fantasy Points Ranks given up to position, Opposition Defensive Rank vs. Running situations, Defensive Adjusted Line Yards Rank, and Defense vs. pass catching RBs.  The winning Milly Maker lineups rostered RBs in game situations that met 5 or more of these 6 categories. For example, in 2020 the average Defensive Adjusted Line Yards Rank was 21.07. Which means for all the RBs utilized in winning Milly Maker lineups, the average Defensive Adjusted Line Yards Rank of the RBs rostered was 21.07 out of 32 NFL, thus the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered RBs against bottom tier defenses at stopping the run. These defensive factors are showcased in below spotlighted games to targeted RBs from (defensive rankings are from the conclusion of the 2020 season).

Through the first 16 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, 58% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted RBs on projected Vegas favored teams. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted RBs at home 57% of the time. 62% of the time, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted projected Vegas total points of 45 or higher. 68% of the time, the winning Milly Maker lineup targeted projected Vegas spreads of -7 or lower. 72% of the time, the winning Milly Maker lineup targeted projected favored Implied Team totals of 24 or greater. Of the winning Milly Maker lineups who rostered an underdog RB, 75% of the time the projected underdog Implied Team totals were 19 or greater, and did not exceed 26 implied total points. 67% of the time, winning Milly Maker lineups targeted RBs who went up against defenses who surrendered the highest fantasy points allowed to the RB position (Defenses that were ranked 19^th or worse at allowing fantasy points to the RB position).

A factor that goes un-noticed or doesn’t enter the cortex of our minds when utilizing an optimizer to create lineups is the salary patterns for the RB and WR position. These are the only roster spots we need to look at combinations of players to roster and salary combinations must play an important role in your determination of who to roster vs. not to roster on a given Sunday. The combinations of RBs could be 2 or 3 depending upon whether we utilize an RB in the FLEX or not, and subsequently the WRs could be 3 or 4 depending on whether we utilize a WR in the FLEX or not. Yes, the Shark Lab knows that you can utilize a TE in the FLEX and that creates a combination of players as well, but the success of utilizing a TE in the FLEX is limited at best, less than 12.0%. Winning Milly Maker lineup’s salary combinations with no RB in the FLEX had a mean of $11,662 and a median of $11,500. Winning Milly Maker lineup’s salary combinations with RB in the FLEX had a mean of $17,800 and a median of $17,350. Are you always going to be around the mean or median, no, but being as close as you can with solid plays is another way to beat that 1,000 piece puzzle, the salary combinations utilized are discretionary as to whether you roster a $9K+ RB and then low salaried RBs or a mixture of mid-range salaried RBs.

Games for RBs that Fit the Bill:

(Home teams – Right Hand Side Teams, Favored Implied Team Totals (FAV IT), Underdog Implied Team Totals (UD IT))

Tampa Bay vs. NY Jets – (TB Vegas Favorite, -13.5 spread, 45.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, NYJ 27^th Ranked DEF vs. run, NYJ 24^th Rank DEF Line, NYJ 27^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs, NYJ FPTS Allowed to RB Rank 32^nd, TB 5^th OFF Line Rank)

Detroit vs. Seattle – (SEA Vegas Favorite, -7.5 spread, 41.5 points total, FAV IT 24.50, DET 28^th Ranked DEF vs. run, DET 26^th Rank DEF Line, DET 32^nd Rank vs. pass catching RBs, DET FPTS Allowed to RB Rank 17^th, SEA 19^th OFF Line Rank)

Houston vs. San Francisco – (SF Vegas Favorite, -12 spread, 44 points total, FAV IT 28.00, HOU 26^th Ranked DEF vs. run, HOU 25^th Rank DEF Line, HOU 10^th Rank vs. pass catching RBs, HOU FPTS Allowed to RB Rank 29^th, SF 12^th OFF Line Rank)

Arizona vs. Dallas – (DAL Vegas Favorite, -6 spread, 51.5 points total, FAV IT 28.75, ARI 5^th Ranked DEF vs. run, ARI 14^th Rank DEF Line, ARI 21^st Rank vs. pass catching RBs, ARI FPTS Allowed to RB Rank 19^th, DAL 3^rd OFF Line Rank)

Wide Receivers

When looking at games to target for our Milly Maker lineups based upon historical data points, it’s important to target games based upon a set of factors for the Wide Receiver position.  Based upon the 2017 to 2020 winning Milly Maker contests, at the WR position we need to target projected Vegas favorites, but it’s not as heavily weighted towards favorites as the QB and RB positions. Historical statistical trends showcase that winning Milly Maker lineups rostered projected Vegas favorite WRs 57% of the time from 2017 to 2020. Target WRs with Vegas projected spreads of -3.0, -2.5, -3.5, -7.0, -6.0, -1.5, -4.0, -1.0, -5.5, -7.5, -10.0 and -6.5 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Target Vegas projected point totals of 49.5, 47.0, 44.5, 44.0, 45.0, 55.5, and 50.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups).

With four NFL seasons of statistical data to draw from, we can more accurately assess one of the harder positions to pin-point week after week. Over the course of the 4 NFL seasons from 2017 to 2020, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted WRs with closing Vegas lines spread of -3.0 with the greatest ownership (there were 37 occurrences where a WR was rostered with projected closing Vegas lines of a -3.0 spread, the next most utilized Vegas lines spread was -2.5 at 22 occurrences within the winning Milly Maker lineups). The most targeted closing Vegas lines total points was 49.5 with 20 occurrences within winning Milly Maker lineups. Winning Milly Maker lineups targeted WRs on Vegas projected favorites with implied team totals of 24.75, 27.75, 23.00, 25.75, 26.00, 24.75, and 28.50 the most. The winning lineups targeted WRs on Vegas projected underdogs with implied team totals of 21.50, 20.00, 24.75, 22.00 and 21.75 the most.

Utilizing historical Vegas lines trends is vital to your success with lineup construction, but it’s not the only aspect we need to utilize for determining the WRs to roster weekly.  We need to look at salary as well, and during the 2020 NFL season the sweet spot salary to target was the $6,000 range, as 26% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered WRs in this range, followed by the $5,000 salary range at 21%.

Additionally, there are 6 defensive factors to be used in addition to the projected closing Vegas lines and player’s salaries to determine top WRs. Those factors are Defensive Fantasy Points Ranks given up to position, Opposition Defensive Rank vs. Pass situations, Defensive Pressure Rank, Defense vs Left, Middle and Right sides of the field.  The winning Milly Maker lineups rostered WRs in game situations that met 5 or more of these 6 categories. For example, in 2020 the average Defensive Pressure Rank was 20.15. Which means for all the WRs utilized in winning Milly Maker lineups, the average Defensive Pressure Rank of the WRs rostered was 20.15 out of 32 NFL, thus the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered WRs against bottom tier defenses at getting pressure on the QB. This is spot on, because QBs are more successful down the field in passing situations when the pocket is not collapsing around them. These defensive factors are showcased in below spotlighted games to targeted WRs from (defensive rankings are from the conclusion of the 2020 season).

Over the course of the first 16 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted Vegas projected favorites 69% of the time. Teams that played at home were targeted by the winning Milly Maker lineups 52% of the time. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted Vegas projected total points of 47 or greater 64% of the time. Vegas projected spreads of -7 or lower (tight spreads) were targeted by winning Milly Maker lineups 70% of the time, as a result target these spreads as much as possible in your lineup construction. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted the favored team’s Projected Implied Team totals of 25 points or greater 78% of the time. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses that were ranked 15^th to 32^nd in surrendering fantasy points allowed to the WR position 67% of the time.

A factor that goes un-noticed or doesn’t enter the cortex of our minds when utilizing an optimizer to create lineups is the salary patterns for the RB and WR position. These are the only roster spots we need to look at combinations of players to roster and salary combinations must play an important role in your determination of who to roster vs. not to roster on a given Sunday. The combinations of RBs could be 2 or 3 depending upon whether we utilize an RB in the FLEX or not, and subsequently the WRs could be 3 or 4 depending on whether we utilize a WR in the FLEX or not. Yes, the Shark Lab knows that you can utilize a TE in the FLEX and that creates a combination of players as well, but the success of utilizing a TE in the FLEX is limited at best, less than 12.0%. Winning Milly Maker lineup’s salary combinations with no WR in the FLEX had a mean of $18,746 and a median of $19,100. Winning Milly Maker lineup’s salary combinations with WR in the FLEX had a mean of $23,467 and a median of $23,200. Are you always going to be around the mean or median, no, but being as close as you can with solid plays is another way to beat that 1,000 piece puzzle, the salary combinations utilized are discretionary as to whether you roster a $9K+ WR and then low salaried WRs or a mixture of mid-range salaried WRs.

Games for WRs that Fit the Bill:

(Home teams – Right Hand Side Teams, Favored Implied Team Totals (FAV IT), Underdog Implied Team Totals (UD IT))

Kansas City vs. Cincinnati – (KC Vegas Favorite, -4.5 spread, 51 points total, FAV IT 27.75, UD IT 23.25, CIN DEF Rank 22^nd, CIN DEF Pressure Rank 17^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. WR1 7^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. WR2 25^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Left Side of Field 9^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Middle of Field 25^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Right Side of Field 17^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Deep Passes 20^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 23^rd, CIN FPTS Allowed to WR Rank 25^th, KC OFF Pressure Rank 7^th)

Arizona vs. Dallas – (DAL Vegas Favorite, -6 spread, 51.5 points total, FAV IT 28.75, UD IT 22.75, ARI DEF Rank 5^th, ARI DEF Pressure Rank 10^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. WR1 3^rd, ARI DEF Rank vs. WR2 23^rd, ARI DEF Rank vs. Left Side of Field 18^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. Middle of Field 14^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. Right Side of Field 2^nd, ARI DEF Rank vs. Deep Passes 13^th, ARI DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 7^th, ARI FPTS Allowed to WR Rank 20^th, DAL OFF Pressure Rank 11^th)

Atlanta vs. Buffalo – (IND Vegas Favorite, -14.5 spread, 44.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, UD IT 15.00, ATL DEF Rank 29^th, ATL DEF Pressure Rank 32^nd, ATL DEF Rank vs. WR1 29^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. WR2 29^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. Left Side of Field 30^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. Middle of Field 29^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. Right Side of Field 28^th, ATL DEF Rank vs. Deep Passes 22^nd, ATL DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 30^th, ATL FPTS Allowed to WR Rank 30^th, BUF OFF Pressure Rank 3^rd)

Tampa Bay vs. NY Jets – (TB Vegas Favorite, -13.5 spread, 45.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, UD IT 16.00, NYJ DEF Rank 32^nd, NYJ DEF Pressure Rank 19^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. WR1 19^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. WR2 30^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Left Side of Field 32^nd, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Middle of Field 31^st, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Right Side of Field 30^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Deep Passes 28^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 32^nd, NYJ FPTS Allowed to WR Rank 24^th, TB OFF Pressure Rank 1^st)

Tight Ends

When looking at games to target for our Milly Maker lineups based upon historical data points, it’s important to target games based upon a set of factors for the Tight End position.  Based upon the 2017 to 2020 winning Milly Maker contests, at the TE position we need to target projected Vegas favorites. Historical statistical trends showcase that winning Milly Maker lineups rostered projected Vegas favorite TEs 68% of the time from 2017 to 2020. Target TEs with Vegas projected spreads of -3.0, -7.0, -6.0, -3.5, -2.0, -4.0, -6.5, -2.5, and -1.5 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Target Vegas projected point totals of 45.0, 49.5, 50.5, 44.5, 45.5, and 47.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups).  Tight Ends are very tricky week-to-week and that forces us to use historical Vegas closing lines trends to be able to find the best options for us at the position. Winning Milly Maker lineups targeted TEs on Vegas projected favorites with implied team totals of 24.75, 28.00, 26.75, 29.25, and 25.75 the most. The winning lineups targeted TEs on Vegas projected underdogs with implied team totals of 19.00, 20.75, 22.25, 23.75, 24.75, 19.25, 21.75 and 19.50 the most.

Utilizing historical Vegas lines trends is vital to your success with lineup construction, but it’s not the only aspect we need to utilize for determining the TEs to roster weekly.  We need to look at salary as well, and during the 2020 NFL season the sweet spot salary to target was the $4,000 range, as 37% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered TEs in this range which is 17% higher than the next highest salary range of $3,000.

Additionally, there are 5 defensive factors to be used in addition to the projected closing Vegas lines and player’s salaries to determine top TEs, and those are Defensive Fantasy Points Ranks given up to position, Opposition Defensive Rank vs. Pass situations, Defensive Pressure Rank, Defensive Rank vs TE position, Defensive Rank vs. Short passing situations. These defensive factors are showcased in below spotlighted games to targeted TEs from (defensive rankings are from the conclusion of the 2020 season).

Over the course of the first 16 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted Vegas projected favorites 71% of the time. Teams that played at home were targeted by the winning Milly Maker lineups 54% of the time. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted Vegas projected total points of 45 or greater 64% of the time. Vegas projected spreads of -7 or lower (tight spreads) were targeted by winning Milly Maker lineups 74% of the time. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses that were ranked 15^th to 32^nd in surrendering fantasy points allowed to the TE position 79% of the time. The winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses that were ranked 15^th to 1^st in the defensive line applying pressure to the QB position 46% of the time, defensive lines that apply pressure on the QB forces the QB to have to make shorter, quicker passes.

Games for TEs that Fit the Bill:

(Home teams – Right Hand Side Teams, Favored Implied Team Totals (FAV IT), Underdog Implied Team Totals (UD IT))

Tampa Bay vs. NY Jets – (TB Vegas Favorite, -13.5 spread, 45.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, NYJ DEF Pass Rank 32^nd, NYJ DEF Pressure Rank 19^th, NYJ DEF Rank vs. TE 32^nd, NYJ DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 32^nd, NYJ FPTS Allowed to TE Rank 25^th)

Kansas City vs. Cincinnati – (KC Vegas Favorite, -4.5 spread, 51 points total, FAV IT 27.75, CIN DEF Pass Rank 22^nd, CIN DEF Pressure Rank 17^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. TE 28^th, CIN DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 23^rd, CIN FPTS Allowed to TE Rank 29^th)

Houston vs. San Francisco – (SF Vegas Favorite, -12 spread, 44 points total, FAV IT 28.00, HOU DEF Pass Rank 15^th, HOU DEF Pressure Rank 21^st, HOU DEF Rank vs. TE 31^st, HOU DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 26^th, HOU FPTS Allowed to TE Rank 20^th)

Atlanta vs. Buffalo – (BUF Vegas Favorite, -14.5 spread, 44.5 points total, FAV IT 29.50, ATL DEF Pass Rank 29^th, ATL DEF Pressure Rank 32^nd, ATL DEF Rank vs. TE 22^nd, ATL DEF Rank vs. Short Passes 30^th, ATL FPTS Allowed to TE Rank 24^th)

Top Milly Maker Defenses to Target

Defenses can make or break your lineup’s ability to make the top 100 of the Milly Maker, let alone the top 10.  Defenses are the least researched position of your lineup each week, because as DFS players we are so obsessed with so many other aspects that go into our lineups and defenses become the last position we roster and the defense that fits salary wise is who we go with.  Selecting the optimal Milly Maker defense is not about luck, but about research, research, research!

When looking at defenses, salary is certainly a factor, and a defense could be the highest salaried defense and carry the highest percentage of projected ownership, I say FADE!!!  But… then you will see the highest salaried defense carry low projected ownership in an amazing spot, I say THANK YOU!!!  Contrary to popular belief, targeting projected Vegas lines that are close and low scoring are best for defenses. Since 2017 to 2020, the highest utilized Vegas lines spreads of winning Milly Maker lineups were -3.0, -7.0, -2.5, -3.5, -1.5, and -1.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). Projected Vegas lines total points that were featured most in winning Milly Maker lineups were 46.5, 44.0, 41.5, 45.0, 46.0, and 41.0 (in order by the greatest utilization in winning Milly Maker lineups). From 2017 to 2020, winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who were projected Vegas lines favorites 79% of the time. For a full breakdown of the Shark Lab’s top rated defenses on the main slate, check out the weekly O-Line / D-Line breakdown chart and use the chart the Shark Lab uses to successfully target the right defenses on the week’s main slate.

Over the course of the first 15 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, the winning Milly Maker lineups targeted defenses who were Vegas projected favorites 59% of the time. Defenses that played at home were targeted by the winning Milly Maker lineups 58% of the time. An incredible dynamic for the winning Milly Maker lineups, these lineups targeted the favored teams with projected Implied Team totals of 24 points or greater 81% of the time of those favored defenses in winning Milly Maker lineups.

Top Defenses on the Main Slate:

The teams in bold below are the favored defenses:

Miami vs. Tennessee – (TEN Vegas Favorite, -3.5 spread, 40 points total, Home, Favorite, TEN DEF Pressure Rank 9^th, MIA Offensive Line Pressure Rank 20^th, TEN FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 12^th, TEN Projected Ownership 6.0%, Salary $3,100)

Carolina vs. New Orleans – (NO Vegas Favorite, -6.5 spread, 37.5 points total, Home, Favorite, NO DEF Pressure Rank 12^th, CAR Offensive Line Pressure Rank 27^th, NO FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 20^th, NO Projected Ownership 9.7%, Salary $3,400)

Jacksonville vs. New England – (NE Vegas Favorite, -16.5 spread, 41.5 points total, Home, Favorite, NE DEF Pressure Rank 16^th, JAC Offensive Line Pressure Rank 9^th, NE FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 1^st, NE Projected Ownership 8.9%, Salary $3,900)

Houston vs. San Francisco – (SF Vegas Favorite, -12 spread, 44 points total, Home, Favorite, SF DEF Pressure Rank 6^th, HOU Offensive Line Pressure Rank 23^rd, SF FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 21^st, SF Projected Ownership 4.4%, Salary $3,800)

 !!!!Milly Maker Special Defense!!!!

Arizona vs. Dallas – (DAL Vegas Favorite, -6 spread, 51.5 points total, Home, Favorite, DAL DEF Pressure Rank 8^th, ARI Offensive Line Pressure Rank 15^th, DAL FPTS Allowed to QB Rank 9^th, DAL Projected Ownership 2.2%, Salary $3,200)

Stacks

To win the Milly Maker, stacked lineups are the key to success.  During the 2020 NFL season, 100% of the winning lineups had a stack in their lineup construction.  When determining if a game stack or a QB/WR stack is best, honestly it depends on the given week and how Vegas projects the games to play out.  When constructing your lineups, DO NOT FORCE a particular stack into your lineups when all of the variables you in a different direction.

Games that Fit the Bill to Game Stack or Simply Stack (Home teams – Right Hand Side Teams):

• Kansas City vs. Cincinnati
• Arizona vs. Dallas
• Atlanta vs. Buffalo
• LA Rams vs. Baltimore

!!!!MILLY MAKER SPECIAL STACKS!!!!

Determining which stacks to choose will either make or break your lineups each and every week. My top Milly Maker stacks of the week:

(UPSIDE) Kansas City vs. Cincinnati – Mahomes/Hill/Higgins ($27,000 or $4,500 remaining per player for 6 remaining lineup spots)

 (UPSIDE) Arizona vs. Dallas – Prescott/Cooper/Gallup ($31,900 or $5,317 remaining per player for 6 remaining lineup spots)

(UPSIDE) Atlanta vs. Buffalo – Allen/Diggs/Knox ($28,600 or $4,767 remaining per player for 6 lineup spots)

(UPSIDE) Kansas City vs. Cincinnati – Burrow/Chase/Higgins/Kelce ($21,300 or $4,260 remaining per player for 5 remaining lineup spots)

(UPSIDE) LA Rams vs. Baltimore – Stafford/Kupp/Beckham Jr./ ($27,700 or $4,617 remaining per player for 6 remaining lineup spots)

Roster Construction

The DFS NFL landscape is ever changing and this is no different in the construction of our rosters and placing them in position to race up the leaderboards.  During the 2020 NFL season, the WR position reigned superior over the RB and TE positions when utilized in the FLEX position, and it wasn’t even close.  Of the 24 Milly Maker contests in 2020 (multiple Milly Maker Slates in multiple weeks of the season), 54.2% of the time the winning Milly Maker lineup rostered a WR in the FLEX.  Versus 25% for TEs and 20.8% for RBs.  This was significant different compared to the 2018 and 2019 NFL seasons, where 65% of the winning Milly Maker lineups rostered an RB in the FLEX position in each season. Was 2020 NFL a historical change to the NFL DFS landscape or simply an outlier?

Over the course of the first 15 weeks of the 2021 NFL season, winning Milly Maker lineups rostered a WR in the FLEX 48.0% of the time, RB in the FLEX 40.0% of the time and TE in the FLEX 12.0% of the time over 24 Milly Maker contests.

When constructing your Milly Maker lineups, do not overthink things, keep it simple and artfully construct your lineups with a process in mind of solving the 1,000-piece puzzle most optimally!

Members Successes Edition

Members, the Shark Lab loves hearing of your DFS successes over the course of the NFL season, and seeing you use this article as a tool to obtain success!

Shark Lab wants to thank each and every member for your continued desire in the 2021 NFL season to want to read our Milly Maker article weekly, and we will do everything we can to provide quality content to you on a weekly basis!  Thank You DFSA Members!

About the Author:

Burns273 – Adam Burns the creator and originator of the Shark Lab and the Shark Chronicles, aka AdrocksBucksWinItAll on DraftKings. He is a Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Member, and got his start in DFS industry during the 2011-2012 NFL season. He has been a DFS Army staff member since the end of the 2015 NFL season where he originated the site’s Research Station for MLB and NFL, and the WR vs. CB chart which he continues to evolve and implement each NFL season for members of the site. He is the author of the site’s prized Shark Chronicles and last year authored and released “Shark Chronicles – How to Win the DraftKings Milly Maker Volume 2”, over 50-page e-book of research chronicling the 2017-2019 NFL seasons. He has been featured on DFS Army’s Off the Chalk and Wolfpack podcasts.

Burns has taken the DraftKings Milly Maker contest by storm, placing in the top 10 of the Milly Maker contest three times since week 17 of the 2018 NFL season. He has numerous top 20 finishes in the Milly Maker contest. He is a 2-time DraftKings King of the Beach qualifier and FanDuel’s NBA Championships Live Qualifier, and has numerous large and small field GPP wins and top 10 winnings in Esports, MLB, MMA, NASCAR, NBA and NFL. Burns was a top 300 ranked NFL DFS player in 2019.  Follow him on Twitter @Burns273DFS and #burns273 in Slack.