Similar to NBA DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
When injury news comes out, the lines surrounding that player will remain the same for a few minutes. The best picks are the ones that come from that player’s game as these lines are likely to be too low or too high depending on which way the news breaks. These are removed quickly so it is important to stay on top of the news to get the best value picks.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the NBA staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines will change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our NBA Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks NBA Plays for Tonight…
Dec 4, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; LA Clippers forward Marcus Morris Sr. (8) dribbles while being defended by Sacramento Kings guard Terence Davis (3) during the first quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
RJ Barrett Under 31.5Fpts
NYK vs BOS
Barrett is coming off of a 47.1Fpts night against the Pacers. He played 42mins that game. Since he plays for Tom Thibodeau, those mins could remain that high again. However, Barrett’s playing time does fluctuate. The Pacers have a depleted roster right now. 3 games ago, Barrett scored 40.9Fpts but that was against the Thunder. These 2 recent performances that exceeded this line have come in good matchups. Today, he faces off against the Celtics. Boston is healthy today with the exception of Payton Pritchard. The Celtics play at a slow pace while having one of the better defenses in the league.
These two teams met on October 20 in which turned out to be a double OT game. Barrett played 47mins and scored 34Fpts. Assuming this game does not go into 2OTs again, the under looks pretty solid. The Knicks started Alec Burks last game ahead of Miles McBride. Burks has a higher usage rate than McBride which cuts into Barrett’s production. He is a capable PG which hurts Barrett’s assists. Mitchell Robinson and possibly Nerlens Noel back will eat into his rebounding. Barrett has had his shooting struggles in the past. With strong NBA defenders in Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Josh Richardson, Barrett is in a very tough spot. Another bet would be Barrett under 18.5pts.
Saddiq Bey Over 31.5Fpts
DET @ MEM
The Pistons are getting healthier. Bey is a key piece to this Detroit team which allows him to play all the minutes that he can handle. In Cade Cunningham’s first game back, Bey racked up 51.6Fpts in 39mins against the Bucks. Last game, the Pistons were blown out so Bey only played 27mins. With Kelly Olynyk and Jerami Grant off the floor, Bey is tied for 2nd on the team in usage at 22.9% averaging 0.99FPM. With the kind of playing time Bey has been getting, he projects to score the over at this rate. Bey relies on scoring and rebounding for his NBA fantasy production. Isaiah Stewart could be back which may hurt Bey’s rebounding a little bit, but Stewart is an undersized center.
The Grizzlies allow the 5th-highest 3pt % in the league this season. Both teams play at the same tempo hovering around the 10th-fastest pace. With the injuries that the Pistons are dealing with, Bey plays the PF spot. When Grant was healthy, Bey played at SF putting him away from the basket more. His rebound totals have been very high recently. If Stewart remains out, Bey would have a solid floor provided by his rebounding output. Trey Lyles would likely start at center again. He is more of a stretch 4 but with the lack of options in the frontcourt, is being used as a center. Bey’s line looks to be too low for today.
Marcus Morris Over 17.5pts
LAC @ PHX
It is no secret that when you take Paul George off the floor, his teammates are going to benefit. Morris has a 24.9% usage rate under these circumstances which is a 2.6% bump. In addition, Luke Kennard is also out. There is not much of a sample size if we take Kennard and George off the court this season. However, it is expected that Morris would receive an even bigger boost to his shot attempts. Eric Bledsoe is not the same shooting threat as Kennard. Rather, it actually benefits Morris even more because Bledsoe can create for others. Not only is Morris going to get more shots up, but also they could be quality looks. This is a tough matchup against the Suns. Jae Crowder, DeAndre Ayton, and JaVale McGee all cleared protocols Wednesday but will remain out today.
Still, the Suns are 11 point favorites at home. That does not look good but the Clippers beat the Nets on the road just last week. In that game, George and Kennard also were out. Last game, the Clippers were getting blown out so they called the game early and subbed out the starters in the 3rd. Morris only took 9 shots that game. Double-digit shot attempts are pretty much a guarantee, especially with how shorthanded the Clippers are today. The Clippers are going to need Morris today to stay competitive. If you are worried about a possible blowout, consider Morris over 8.5pts in the 1st half.
Reggie Jackson Over 3.5asts
LAC @ PHX
Similar to Morris, these Clippers’ lines seem a bit low. If they did not get blown out last game, both of these NBA lines would be set higher. With George off the court, Jackson has a 30.5% usage rate which is a 4% bump. In his first game back from protocols on 12/31 against the Raptors, Jackson racked up 4 assists with 8 potential assists. On 1/1 against the Nets, he only recorded 3 assists but had 10 potential assists. The most recent game against the Wolves was a blowout so that is an outlier. Even in a tough matchup, Jackson is going to have the ball in his hands a lot. This means more assist chances.
Jackson will see some Chris Paul defense. However, this is the regular season. Individual NBA matchups like this do not scare me. The opportunity will be there and this is about assists, not points. Brandon Boston Jr. is expected to return which might seem insignificant. He is a shooter and without Kennard, he could help Jackson pick up those assists. It would be even better if he or someone else starts in place of Bledsoe so Jackson can truly dominate the ball-handling duties. With Nicolas Batum back, he could push Bledsoe to the bench. Terance Mann, who can play some point, just is not playmaking right now. If Bledsoe were to not start, this is a must-play.
Just missed the cut: Alec Burks O29.5Fpts, Cade Cunningham O34.5Fpts, Andrew Wiggins O21pts, Jonas Valanciunas O17.5pts, O11.5rebs
Final NBA PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Pick the best lines available. Take advantage of the news and place entries immediately before the lines are taken off the board and adjusted.
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